Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CoastalWx]

Reggie has the meso low too.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep, Reggie tickled east.

[JC-CT]

This really is quite fascinating from a forecasting perspective

Location	Snow Amount Potential	Chance of Seeing More Snow Than
	Low End Snowfall	Expected Snowfall	High End Snowfall	>=0.1"	>=1"	>=2"	>=4"	>=6"	>=8"	>=12"	>=18"
Hartford, CT	0	7	15	80%	77%	72%	63%	53%	42%	22%	5%
Hyannis, MA	5	17	19	94%	93%	91%	87%	81%	74%	54%	17%
Taunton, MA	4	14	22	94%	93%	91%	86%	80%	73%	55%	27%
Edgartown, MA	5	17	19	95%	93%	92%	87%	81%	74%	54%	16%
Greenfield, MA	0	5	8	65%	60%	53%	39%	24%	12%	2%	0%
Springfield, MA	0	7	13	76%	73%	68%	57%	46%	34%	14%	2%
Nantucket, MA	0	10	11	82%	78%	73%	62%	49%	34%	6%	0%
Plympton, MA	6	17	24	96%	95%	93%	90%	85%	80%	65%	37%
Boston, MA	2	12	20	91%	89%	87%	81%	74%	66%	46%	18%
Worcester, MA	0	10	16	82%	80%	76%	68%	58%	48%	26%	5%
Newport, RI	3	12	21	93%	91%	89%	84%	78%	70%	50%	23%
Providence, RI	1	12	19	90%	87%	85%	79%	71%	62%	42%	16%
Westerly, RI	1	11	18	89%	87%	84%	77%	69%	59%	38%	13%

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has the meso low too.

Why do all of our storms have to get knocked up upon arrival?

[snowman21]

8 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY.. middle approach solution, still given their likely outcome here is 7.0", that at least warrants a WWA, if not a warning, seeing all offices around have already hoisted them, we wait...

During Friday night through Saturday night, a deep upper-level
trough will become neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it
approaches the East Coast. A favorable upper-level dual-jet
structure will lead to the development and rapid intensification
of a surface low off the East Coast as it tracks north to
northeastward. There remains high confidence a coastal low will
occur, but where it actually tracks remains uncertain. Latest
model suite is split on the track with some guidance more
intense and farther west (ECMWF/CMC) and others less intense and
farther east (GFS/NAM). Only the CMC is west of the 40/70
benchmark at this time. Upon collaboration with WPC and
surrounding offices, we continue to run a `middle approach` at
this time with the higher snowfall totals south and east of
Albany with little or no snowfall farther north and west.
Regardless, a fairly `wide goalpost` of snowfall amounts are
still possible. Cold, dry air north and west of this system will
likely lead to a sharp gradient in snowfall as well. Winter
weather headlines may be needed in later updates, but there was
not enough confidence on any winter storm watches at this time.

Given the uncertainty I'm surprised the whole state isn't under a watch. The threshold is 7 inches in Litchfield, so if they really think this is going to be a 3-6 type of event I understand why they have nothing up right now since an advisory has a shorter lead time than a watch at least in practice if not by definition.

[JC-CT]

0"-24" should cover most of the forecast area

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, Reggie tickled east.

Same result up here. It was a minor shift.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

terrifying

The big ones tend to do that, obviously you know. Simply stating there will be haves and have nots within a short drive with this one as well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, Reggie tickled east.

Can you address the screamer scenario in Feb thread ?

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why do all of our storms have to get nocked up upon arrival?

forkyfork: global warming

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The big ones tend to do that, obviously you know. Simply stating there will be haves and have nots within a short drive with this one as well. 

20 to 2 in 10 miles is ridiculous though

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The big ones tend to do that, obviously you know. Simply stating there will be haves and have nots within a short drive with this one as well. 

Usually when there is strong confluence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

20 to 2 in 10 miles is ridiculous though

I just threw that out there, who knows...probably not that extreme...just thinking aloud.

[subdude]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The more data I see pertaining to this, the more I feel like this is going to have like a 1/6/96 type of sharp gradient....from like 20" to 2" over 10 miles.

Ya it looks like I will have had more snow from the MLK storm last week than this monster, yet 30-40W of me will have the possibility 2' lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, Reggie tickled east.

Drunk in tolland will say it came nw. 

[IowaStorm05]

I feel like the Reggie is… more than just a few tweaks away from excluding us from heavy snow. I’m not paranoid about it’s action.

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has the meso low too.

I wonder how much the above normal SSTs in the NW Atlantic is helping in the latent heat/meso low production process. Gotta think it has something to do with it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

Ya it looks like I will have had more snow from the MLK storm last week than this monster, yet 30-40W of me will have 2' lol. 

I had literally as much snow form the snow shower on Tuesday night that I had from MLK deal.

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Drunk in tolland will say it came nw. 

everything nw, great trends. you don't agree with me? this place sucks

[Baroclinic Zone]

Solid storm on the 12z RGEM.  Nothing crazy though.

[CoastalWx]

Regardless, the mid levels look great from ern CT to Ray on Reggie.

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just threw that out there, who knows...probably not that extreme...just thinking aloud.

I mean we've seen it happen, so...

[Damage In Tolland]

All systems go. Great trends so far at12z!

[IowaStorm05]

Reggie still distantly threatens taint on the coast, and terrifies the cape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Solid storm on the 12z RGEM.  Nothing crazy though.

I would take the over under the mid level band, regardless of QPF output...as long at its closed off.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Regardless, the mid levels look great from ern CT to Ray on Reggie.

looked like it captured a bit later?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Regardless, the mid levels look great from ern CT to Ray on Reggie.

Factor in 36 hours of tickles and that places it where 

please no more F’n tickles

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Regardless, the mid levels look great from ern CT to Ray on Reggie.

Nah everything sliding away since 18z yesterday. Everyone sober and not high. If you’re happy and you know it clap your hands 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Factor in 36 hours of tickles and that places it where 

Depends if they are all in one direction...

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had literally as much snow form the snow shower on Tuesday night that I had from MLK deal.

funny you mentioned that, I was just looking at my season to date and almost half are from snow showers and squall type stuff...