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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also depends on what metric we're focused upon when making that distinction in post-storm-mortem.   Obviously to this group/social mediasphere of contributors, there's bit of a focus-bias wrt to snow.  But like you say, capture and location, lenth of time, and at what time along the gestation of the event, are problematic for much more than snow.  Grid concerns, tidal flooding, and even straight up wind damage ( more coast and SE zones), add to that 'historic' framework.  

I'm just trying to be more broadly inclusive.  The tide Saturday night should be astro lower, but still high, without a storm... Tough arithmetic, when sig wave hgt guidance has routine 30 footers, what ...10 miles off Harbor entries...  I would not want to be a master or super of any marina from PWM to NJ Saturday night, with a 968 mb low temporarily stalled, or even retro ... That's the other thing, if the capture/stall stuff gets more proficient, it may actually manifest as a loop, send additional momentum that way.  

We could end up with CF problem that ranks, with significant grid problems SE of ASH-ORH (~), and only 15" ...  It's still probably arguable as a historic event.  Also, these pressure depths being put out... if this really gets down 963 or whatever...  I can't find a Nor'easter type coastal of this nature, that deep.  

Lol, watch this break records and be forgettable.  

January 4, 2018 was like that around here...broke the '78 record for tide, but it was "only" around a foot of snow because it was occluded and LBSW.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We always think that every run on all of the models, then the PV plops onto your face at the 11th hour.

Doesn't look like that will happen this time...the PV problem usually shows up by 18z Fri to 00z Sat....but that isn't happening this time.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I agree. You guys are waffling a lot. You have today into tomorrow to monitor. If there is a clear trend to the GFS by 00z tonight then sure.

 

Anyways, this looked like a 12-18 deal overall with a band of more.  Historic to me is Juno...which isn't likely to happen in a wide area.

That NWS doesn't have confidence greater than 50 percent for HFD/ SPFD 6 plus is kinda depressing

Nothing we can do about the weather, seems like Jan 2015 allover again and again the Euro moves far enough east to get a large chunk of the region out of the goods

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