Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[tim123]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It won't go  "a lot" there isn't enough time for that.... but getting it just inside the BM should be doable.

 

6 days away. Thats like a eternity. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he and reality have parted ways....been there plenty past few years. I think you and I are on the same page. This is huge storm....deform band will probably be well west of me even if it comes near BM.

anything to get snowman19 off our backs Ray....glad you don't have him in your subforum lol, the guy tries to downplay every "threat" and now he's talking about an all out torch for February, getting a big one at the end of January would probably keep him quiet for a few.

 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anything to get snowman19 off our backs Ray....glad you don't have him in your subforum lol, the guy tries to downplay every "threat" and now he's talking about an all out torch for February, getting a big one at the end of January would probably keep him quiet for a few.

 

The pattern doesn’t look great in early Feb but it’s not a torch pattern, still looks like there is cold air on our side of the globe unlike 2011-2012. I’m not going to give up on winter after the pattern change, it can and has snowed in patterns worse than the projected early Feb pattern. I’m not a fan of being negative and downplaying threats 3+ days out, id rather look at the possible upside. That’s part of the fun of tracking.

[Organizing Low]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never seen an ensemble mean that intense....this may rival my drift records from March 14, 1993....just violating the atmosphere in every way imaginable. Drifts several feet high and Ginxy and the dogs just floating past ice bergs in area sounds from the tides....clinging to terds like life buoys.

Lmao weenie heaven right there. 
Epic if this rivals 1993, of course goes without saying….drama builds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1034mb high to Quebec to 947 low east side of GOM. No way that verified....that would def. be blizzard of 78 like winds....I think '78 was 1048 to 984....

1978 Max PFG: 64mb

EURO: 87mb

No way that verifies....I dare it to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anything to get snowman19 off our backs Ray....glad you don't have him in your subforum lol, the guy tries to downplay every "threat" and now he's talking about an all out torch for February, getting a big one at the end of January would probably keep him quiet for a few.

 

Oh, he visits here....I swear, the guy got dropped in a snowbank as a newborn or something....

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Organizing Low said:

Lmao weenie heaven right there. 
Epic if this rivals 1993, of course goes without saying….drama builds. 

OL!!!!! Wow, miss you from the old Bs threads.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, he visits here....I swear, the guy got dropped in a snowbank as a newborn or something....

Oh, so that explains the helmet he's wearing!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anything to get snowman19 off our backs Ray....glad you don't have him in your subforum lol, the guy tries to downplay every "threat" and now he's talking about an all out torch for February, getting a big one at the end of January would probably keep him quiet for a few.

 

February could give me swampass for all I care if this verifies.

[Organizing Low]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OL!!!!! Wow, miss you from the old Bs threads.

Saw the euro. Had to post …you just can’t NOT post after seeing that. 
 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Organizing Low said:

Lmao weenie heaven right there. 
Epic if this rivals 1993, of course goes without saying….drama builds. 

Big hockey night right here if you've joined the party OL!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Oh, so that explains the helmet he's wearing!

 

He must have endured trauma pertaining to winter at a young age.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

The pattern doesn’t look great in early Feb but it’s not a torch pattern, still looks like there is cold air on our side of the globe unlike 2011-2012. I’m not going to give up on winter after the pattern change, it can and has snowed in patterns worse than the projected early Feb pattern. I’m not a fan of being negative and downplaying threats 3+ days out, id rather look at the possible upside. That’s part of the fun of tracking.

And it's quite possible that a huge event like this could alter the pattern in such a way as to blunt the warm up....it's happened before with big storms that affected the pattern that occurred after them for days, sometimes even a week or more.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He must have endured trauma pertaining to winter at a young age.

It's fine being a warminista but the confounding part is going into threads and celebrating the misery of other people.  It has to be some kind of trauma like you said.

[40/70 Benchmark]

'93 got down to 960mb.....wonder what the max high pressure was...

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1034mb high to Quebec to 947 low east side of GOM. No way that verified....that would def. be blizzard of 78 like winds....I think '78 was 1048 to 984....

1978 Max PFG: 64mb

EURO: 87mb

No way that verifies....I dare it to.

Did we have winds similar to that in Boxing Day 2010?  I remember something like 80 mph winds out on the Cape and 70 mph on Long Island.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

'93 got down to 960mb.....wonder what the max high pressure was...

Imagine what that would have been like on  a BM track.....still waiting on a triple phaser to get that done, maybe one day.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

'93 got down to 960mb.....wonder what the max high pressure was...

what are those three maps you posted? UK, GEM and EC right? Man F5 goes bananas with ratios on some of those. Looks like more than 2X 10:1 in certain areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what are those three maps you posted? UK, GEM and EC right? Man F5 goes bananas with ratios on some of those. Looks like more than 2X 10:1 in certain areas.

Yes.

[The 4 Seasons]

OKX went from nothing to high chance pops for 3 periods just like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This must be what guidance for March 5, 2001 looked like before the phase got sloppy late in the game.

[Sugarloaf1989]

I lived with my parents in March of 1993 in Queens.  We had 10 inches of snow followed by heavy rain.  Afterwards the snow froze solid.

[SnoSki14]

What a crazy turn of events. 06z GFS onboard now as well. 

[moneypitmike]

GFS cuts the canal.  Keep that off-shore please.

[Johnno]

Ironic if this trends into an inland runner 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Johnno said:

Ironic if this trends into an inland runner 

If this turns into a Jan 16th repeat with the low going inland, this forum will go absolutely nuclear. At this point no one should be locking in anything, im just saying if it slowly trends to that and we miss out on yet another storm heading into Feb.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Ironic if this trends into an inland runner 

Looks like it's a fine balancing act between the more fast Pacific flow vs the building heights in SE Canada.

If this phases and explodes like models suggest then theoretically it should end up further west. I still think the faster flow will win out and an eastern solution is more likely.

SNE is in a good place for this.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ray spiking the ball early. Start time is Friday PM.. Still 4 + days . What could go wrong? Hope not, but we tiptoe 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is unreal

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray spiking the ball early. Start time is Friday PM.. Still 4 + days . What could go wrong? Hope not, but we tiptoe 

That’s what Buffalo said with 13 seconds remaining last night!