Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dendrite]

The initial s/w diving into the Plains kinda splits this run. There’s a piece to the north that runs out ahead of the stronger southern piece that really digs into and crawls through TX/NM. That northern piece that gets away seems to be flattening the heights ahead of the southern s/w and since it’s crawling to begin with there’s a major positive tilt to the trough. Eventually it starts to amplify and that northern piece dampens out. The s/w I mark in Canada eventually dives in to phase and clean everything out, but it’s just a little too late for us on this run. 

The models are still struggling with trying to find the little nuances in the flow which can make a big impact on the final outcome. As everyone else has said, the signal is there. Be happy with that and just keep an eye on it. It’s not worth getting emotionally invested into it right now. 

[78Blizzard]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

People are shook.

[George001]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody was concerned about an inland runner but the gfs is no longer useless. You can’t pick and choose the model that supports your 80” storm. With that said, how is the navy?

6z was OTS but close, 12z not out yet. Id like to see the Canadian and European guidance trend in the right direction even if it’s not a direct hit. Canadian and Euro were whiffs last night, but had very strong storms that brushed Eastern mass. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

When we get precip maps this probably is a 3 to 4 ft run for someone 

Congrats PF.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is really amped 

HOLY SHIT THIS IS A MAJOR STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, THATS A GODDAMN BLIZZICANE!!!

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

So you thinking this is where that trough is going to end up where its is right now further east? It was further west just a few cycles back.

I'm saying we still have time h5 shenanigans, but it's not unlimited. We are entering the model time frame where the models start to gain real skill. I don't want this whiffing 24 hours from now. Today's run should be weighted much higher than yesterday's runs due to the models starting to enter the skill range, but the next 24-48 hours are huge. Nothing we dont already know.

[SouthCoastMA]

The sieg heil model looks like a March '14 redux

[George001]

964 mb and more importantly, the low looks like 100 miles NW of last run.

[dryslot]

Just now, George001 said:

HOLY SHIT THIS IS A MAJOR STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, THATS A GODDAMN BLIZZICANE!!!

[PhineasC]

CMC looks like the hugger run I was hoping for but the B&W maps are terrible.

[CoastalWx]

Good explanation Brian.

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

CMC looks like the hugger run I was hoping for but the B&W maps are terrible.

If a model was going to hug, not surprised CMC would be the one to do it, based on its ensembles last night. Some were waaay west.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie develop a wave last minute and brushes, but better than 00z.

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

HOLY SHIT THIS IS A MAJOR STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, THATS A GODDAMN BLIZZICANE!!!

Are land falling F1 snownadoes a possibility with that depiction?

[CoastalWx]

Canadian shows you what happens when the srn end of that s/w doesn't split off.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie develop a wave last minute and brushes, but better than 00z.

Looks almost like a complete separation of the s/ws.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Canadian shows you what happens when the srn end of that s/w doesn't split off.

Yes, And the taint calls would be coming with that too...........

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Looks almost like a complete separation of the s/ws.

Yeah right at the end there at hr 138, the s/w over VA and the one offshore are a bit out of phase, but that is a nice look overall. 

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The initial s/w diving into the Plains kinda splits this run. There’s a piece to the north that runs out ahead of the stronger southern piece that really digs into and crawls through TX/NM. That northern piece that gets away seems to be flattening the heights ahead of the southern s/w and since it’s crawling to begin with there’s a major positive tilt to the trough. Eventually it starts to amplify and that northern piece dampens out. The s/w I mark in Canada eventually dives in to phase and clean everything out, but it’s just a little too late for us on this run. 

The models are still struggling with trying to find the little nuances in the flow which can make a big impact on the final outcome. As everyone else has said, the signal is there. Be happy with that and just keep an eye on it. It’s not worth getting emotionally invested into it right now. 

That shortwave out of canada didnt even exist on the GFS a few runs ago. Maybe it saves the day?

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, And the taint calls would be coming with that too...........

Somewhere in between the GFS and CMC is ideal

[MJO812]

[Cold Miser]

Isn't  this the Pittsburg Pounder that was showing last week for the same time frame?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I mean, okay lol. I'd rather the GFS show that, but I'd take a Euro/CMC tandem too.

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

i remember making that LOL   21 bun salute

[PhineasC]

Oh, Canada!

[PhineasC]

Nice to see a good run close to the coast.

[PhineasC]

Balls cold here during the event too. Teens.

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Nice to see a good run close to the coast.

100%

[JC-CT]

GEFS improved look imo, but very two-campy

[George001]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That’s a great look. Low hugs the coast, but not so much that it drives the rain snow line way inland. That’s blizzard conditions for NYC, Long Island, and all of SNE NW of the rain snow line which would be confined to the outer cape. Even NNE gets hammered since the low is so far west.