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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see. 

291305949_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(7).thumb.png.1d4b35253f5492cf9894d5bbcf2b3a20.png

908466345_gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.f19d4ba157454a864886d032a1bf56a5.png

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that

if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that

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It's hard to have a crap pattern with 200+ DM anomalies at H5 over Yukon/NW territories.

 

If you keep shifting the ridge westward over the Bering Strait and then shove a deep trough into the four corners, then I'd be a little more concerned.

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You could probably thread that out for CNE/NNE for snow mix of low to moderate impact Tuesday... higher confidence N.  

Granted less interest/ traffic from us down here in the southern crew, but in the interest of objective awareness spanning our large subforum..etc.  That high pressure up there is in every f member of GEFs and excuse me, but long years of experience tells me that the BL resistance there is at minimum not enough and perhaps just wrong.   Give the thread medium confidence, but it's worth it because Brian could end up with .35" accretion and it's only D4.

I like a mid confidence thread for Friday/end of the week.  Very coherent signal in all ens means implies cross-guidance support - at this range, that's pretty damn good. In fact, the existence of a winter storm over the E is backed by strong signal derived from index methodology. That's likely to be on the map.  I have more confidence of that, despite the week away,  than I do of icing in Lakes region of NH earlier in the week.  It is unfortunately 7 day away... But, in another way of looking at it, it's only 3 days away from going from this sort of extrapolation into a better defined coherency -

But you know me... when I see something I don't have much compunctions about not holding back. 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that

I'd take that considering how this season has gone. I'll take my chances with some se ridging. The last thing I want is another SE MA pattern.

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12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that

if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that

All of us are, thanks.

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

For me, the bigger issue comes from tracks that get frozen into the trail.  I hate getting stuck in frozen ski ruts.  Seems like you are always wrestling to keep the sled going the way you want rather following someone else's tracks.

Thats where I used to find myself tensing up. I find if you fight that and relax your grip its more enjoyable 

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey, people from different subforums come in here and it's always useful to provide context for broad geographical comments like that

someone from, say, the MA could get the wrong impression otherwise

Not a big deal, but usually the fact that its a New England sub forum gives adequate context to get a pretty good idea of the prevailing perspective lol

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is actually reloading the EPO at the end of the run too....we might be in that pattern for a while...maybe through mid-March, but we'll see if future runs break it down faster. The LR hasn't been very accurate this year.

One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog.

If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3.

Conscious that there are other environment influences.

The hated wheely chart.

1760003130_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(2).gif.d069b6799036309fa3d5bc4fc256ee2b.gif

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11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog.

If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3.

Conscious that there are other environment influences.

The hated wheely chart.

1760003130_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(2).gif.d069b6799036309fa3d5bc4fc256ee2b.gif

Can someone explain WTF I am looking at with this?  Looks like something I drew with the etch-a-sketch back when I was a wee lad.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Can someone explain WTF I am looking at with this?  Looks like something I drew with the etch-a-sketch back when I was a wee lad.

It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. 

Approximate-locations-of-the-MJO-centre-

You can see how ridging forced from 7/8/1 could favorably line up with -EPO and cold for our local area.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was the 1/28/10 event.

 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old RSM members on the SREF were excellent in WINDEX events too. Too bad we still can't have them around for winter.

Hard to believe it was that long ago. :lol:

Those RSM SREF members all went batshit crazy with that line on every run…and nailed it. I think it was the only thing they ever did well. lol

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Just now, dendrite said:

 

Hard to believe it was that long ago. :lol:

Those RSM SREF members all went batshit crazy with that line on every run…and nailed it. I think it was the only thing they ever did well. lol

Yeah they were always too amped on coastals....but they did WINDEX well. They were also good in icing events...prob mostly due to better resolution than most other guidance back then....I doubt they'd beat out the current hi res stuff in CAD nowadays.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that

if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that

yes we like the SE ridge, just not on steroids.

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