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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022


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  • HVSnowLover changed the title to Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
7 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro still not really showing anything for this which actually worries me a bit because if it's wrong about this I wonder if it may be wrong about the follow up storm.

I am interested to see if the EURO solution verifies Thursday - might give some hints as we get closer whether it is accurate with its weekend snowstorm........and vice versa with the GFS.

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6Z models showing a 1-3" potential, except for the Euro, which is still <1".  NWS-Philly discussion on this event is below.  

As we go through the Wednesday night into Thursday period, the
aformentioned low will continue tracking eastward as it moves
into Atlantic Canada and this will drag a cold front through the
region from north to south. At the same time, there will be
some upper level energy rounding the base of the long wave
trough over the east and another system moving northward from
the south along the frontal boundary. The upshot of all this is
a period of rain will develop by the overnight period Wednesday
night but as the colder air moves in behind the front expect
this to change over to snow from north to south. This changeover
should occur during the overnight hours Wednesday night N/W of
the I-95 corridor and by around sunrise across the urban
corridor. The snow may continue for a few hours into Thursday
before ending as colder, drier air continues to move in on N/NW
winds. The total precipitation with this system could be on the
order of a quarter to half inch of QPF but expect that a lot of
this will occur before the changeover from rain to snow.
Experience has shown that often in these cold advection type
situations that by the time the colder air moves, heavier precip
is just about getting ready to exit. The NAM is a bit more
robust with heavier precip back into the colder air but given
the setup think this may be overdone. The upshot is that at this
time I expect snow amounts to mostly be just a light coating to
under an inch. But again, challenging forecast and if this
system is a little more robust as indicated by the NAM there
could be areas that see a couple inches of snow accumulation.
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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I am interested to see if the EURO solution verifies Thursday - might give some hints as we get closer whether it is accurate with its weekend snowstorm........and vice versa with the GFS.

Yea one storm may or may not have anything to do with the other but will be interesting to see how these both play out in terms of model verification since it's sort of Euro vs all right now for both.   

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10 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

I think this will be the bigger storm over the next week, looks like a nice 2 - 4" for most...other looks offshore

That is very possible.  There is actually a lot of support from the 12z mesos for the amounts you noted.  With all the focus on the Friday night system and whether or not it goes OTS or not I will take what we can get from this one.

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If you live near NYC or LI you ultimately want this to amp a bit more...you want to get some rain or see a period of rain on guidance because in order to really have any shot at notable snow this needs to be far enough NW you start off as liquid for awhile

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2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

amazing how this thread has so little posts while everyone chases some fantasy foot plus storm

 

why wouldnt we be happy with a nice 2-3 that will stay around

If ya don't win big did ya really win?

I appreciate the extremes as much (or more so) as the next guy but nickel and dime winters where we get a few inches at a time a few times a week end up with a more wintry appeal and a longer lasting snowpack.

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

18z NAM pretty juicy with this, has a swath of 3-5 inches a just NW of I95.  

Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of….. 

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of….. 

HRRR looks similar to NAM. I know HRRR is more useful very close to events rather than longer range, but the 18z run gives most of the area a solid 3 inches. Hopefully it's onto something here.

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