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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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19 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

LOL.  Euro doesn't want to surrender!  Doesn't mean much for us but places to the east have a huge difference right now between Euro and pretty much every other model.

I’m just hoping at this point that we get back the 2 to 4 inches of snow from the northern stream low along the Arctic front on Friday that most models had for us earlier in the week.

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It really would not take much to get the LSV back into a solid Advisory level storm.

A few tweaks here & there with the phasing and timing of the pieces and this could have been a blockbuster storm even around here. But, as others have said, some form of blocking would have helped the overall chances for much more in our region.


Plenty of time to fully throw in the towel tomorrow night or Friday am if needed.

 

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2 hours ago, Ruin said:

We need to start holding the national weather service accountable yeah this is going to be slightly ranty. But think about it logically for a minute how often are the models actually write and I'm not just talking about three or four days out I'm talking about the day before storm. I swear to God models were more accurate before all these upgrades in 2000 and 2005 or so models I would say 50/50 would get it right now it's like every single storm they show even the day before we're supposed to get it oh all of a sudden all models show it's going to jog 150 to 200 miles east. Does anyone have an actual percentage of what they're right about I mean to show Pennsylvania from Central to East and most of Maryland having 48 or 12 in and then all of a sudden now nothing every single model shifted from a slightly Coast hugger now to out the sea in a way. I mean think about it for a second if we were wrong that much at our jobs you would have been fired lol

Models have shown this being a coastal scrapper for days now. Of course there's wobbles but the gfs has been pretty darn good for the most part.

Same as last weekends storm. Models picked up on that crazy NW track that changed over many to mix/rain 5 days out! 

Models are by far better than what they were 20 years ago.

Unfortunately there will Probably never be another reverse bust like there was in January 2000. :lol:

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Not sure why everyone is so down…lol…

According to JB, we still have the JMA on our side…

Maybe for the second time ever the JMA will be right?

 

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ooof....someones looking to get trolled.........:P

  • Haha 1
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Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts tonight.

Shortwave energy dropping out of the Great Lakes
Friday morning will attempt to phase with southern stream energy
moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday
afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased
moisture/lift should yield a bit of light snow or flurries
across most of CPA Friday evening into early Friday night. Model
QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east
into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts
north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA
Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for
accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday morning with the
main axis of wintry precip shifting toward the I95 corridor.

Storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient
along I95 trending lower farther to the west. The south/east
parts of York and Lancaster County are forecast to receive the
heaviest snow at this time with amounts in the 1-3/2-4" range.
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Well, I'm going with the model that gave me, cash, and bubbler the winning prize of 0.2" for the entire event.  I really can't get over the Euro hanging on while all others have abandoned ship...lol...get that?

Meanwhile, I will enjoy the possibility of coming close to or maybe even exceeding my lowest temperature of this season tonight.  Coldest minimum so far was -0.6 degrees back over the weekend.  Currently I'm at 8.6 degrees and dropping.  This is the earliest in the night I've reached single digits.  So, my anticipation for morning is close to zero again or perhaps -1 or even -2.  My amazing ice-encrusted 11-day old snowpack is still going strong at 2".  I cannot see any grass yet (in my back yard, which faces north.)  My small front yard only has a few spots left with more than a trace there.  Fortunately, I have a large picture window facing out back which provides me with ample opportunities to be reminded that it is still winter, and we are very close to our climatological bottom for daily average temps. .

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