0Z model discussion

[SnowGoose69]

Correction, thats 40N/66W

[Bluescat1]

Correction, thats 40N/66W

That was cruel.

[psuhoffman]

even with the amazing improvements it makes no difference at all in the mid atlantic. I think the problem is for us the trough is still not digging enough so the low forms off the carrolina coast instead of in the gulf.

[PhineasC]

even with the amazing improvements it makes no difference at all in the mid atlantic. I think the problem is for us the trough is still not digging enough so the low forms off the carrolina coast instead of in the gulf.

I am pretty sure the great Euro runs had the low forming off the Carolina coast. I don't think that is the issue.

[Radders]

Longer term on the GFS, after a Brief warm up and a blizzard for somebody in the MN/WI region, it looks like the arctic just dumps on the CONUS, with the NAO building back in.

[midatlanticweather]

even with the amazing improvements it makes no difference at all in the mid atlantic. I think the problem is for us the trough is still not digging enough so the low forms off the carrolina coast instead of in the gulf.

Difference does show for far Eastern NC, VA, DE! Not huge system, but some moisture!

[mattie g]

even with the amazing improvements it makes no difference at all in the mid atlantic. I think the problem is for us the trough is still not digging enough so the low forms off the carrolina coast instead of in the gulf.

Though it doesn't necessarily mean that subsequent runs won't have that trough digging more. I'm not saying I think it'll happen, but it's not completely impossible. The needle can still be threaded.

[bluewave]

0z GFS vs 12z Euro.

[mattb65]

I have no faith in the GFS...remember the last storm the NAM was correct with its further west solution and the GFS was wrong being further east....at this point I have to assume they are both doing the same this time, just in the opposite directions

Any scientific reasons, or just a hunch?

[goldstar]

Anyone have images or link to nogaps?

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, i guess by tomm morning it will shift another 50 miles west. lol

It will be interesting to see. My guess is that NYC could wind up in a 3"-6"/4"-8" snowfall (similar amounts along the Jersey shore and perhaps down the Delmarva) with parts of southern New England having the best chance for 10" or more. That's not yet assured, but my confidence has increased with respect to the possibility of a moderate snowfall. Hopefully, the trough will be sharper so that more of the Middle Atlantic region can get into the snowfall.

[psuhoffman]

I am pretty sure the great Euro runs had the low forming off the Carolina coast. I don't think that is the issue.

no the 5 of 6 euro runs that had a blizzard for our area formed the low in the gulf. They had it around 1000 mb coming over florida and already down to about 998 over savannah.

[Dr No]

Any scientific reasons, or just a hunch?

He's just messing with the weenie mind.

[psuhoffman]

it would be hard for the GGEM to do anything except come west.

[PhineasC]

no the 5 of 6 euro runs that had a blizzard for our area formed the low in the gulf. They had it around 1000 mb coming over florida and already down to about 998 over savannah.

Yeah, what about the runs that just gave us 5 inches?

[Guest someguy]

I am pretty sure the great Euro runs had the low forming off the Carolina coast. I don't think that is the issue.

100% correct

[Guest someguy]

THERE could be an ASPECT TO JAN 2000 in this

[Guest someguy]

UKIE is way west of its previous runs, but flat and a little further east of the GFS.

UKIE could 500% further west of the 12z thursday run and still be 200 miles off the coast

[Analog96]

THERE could be an ASPECT TO JAN 2000 in this

Are you serious or fooling around with the weenies?

[LakeEffectKing]

No love from the GGEM:

[Dr No]

THERE could be an ASPECT TO JAN 2000 in this

u back in?

[Analog96]

UKIE could 500% further west of the 12z thursday run and still be 200 miles off the coast

Lol

[weathervswife]

THERE could be an ASPECT TO JAN 2000 in this

Don't. GEM at 60 is a million miles OTS.

[Guest someguy]

if the GGEM shows a hit, I'm back in

otherwise I'll stick to the seasonal climo established this year <MA pays the price this year for for 09/10>

fair and reasonable post

[psuhoffman]

100% correct

I am looking at the last euro run with an epic solution and the low is down near 1000 mb over florida, and already sub 1000 mb passing savanah, its then 992 near Wilmington NC. This may be arguing semantics so i want to be real clear about what I mean, with that solution the trough dug a little further south and really started to bomb the low down in the gulf and then pulled it straight up the coast. The new solutions that are much improved from the "nothing" idea of this mornings runs is to dig the trough into the TN valley but not further...thus the low starts to bomb off the SE coast. Pressures do not get sub 1000 mb until about 200 miles further north then the Euro runs that had an epic mid atlantic blizzard. Thus why this is not gonna work for this area. We need the trough to dig a little more, and the low to start to develop a little further south or faster.

[SnowGoose69]

HA....nice inverted trough type signal at 72 by the GEM on the precip field.

[Ian]

I am looking at the last euro run with an epic solution and the low is down near 1000 mb over florida, and already sub 1000 mb passing savanah, its then 992 near Wilmington NC. This may be arguing semantics so i want to be real clear about what I mean, with that solution the trough dug a little further south and really started to bomb the low down in the gulf and then pulled it straight up the coast. The new solutions that are much improved from the "nothing" idea of this mornings runs is to dig the trough into the TN valley but not further...thus the low starts to bomb off the SE coast. Pressures do not get sub 1000 mb until about 200 miles further north then the Euro runs that had an epic mid atlantic blizzard. Thus why this is not gonna work for this area. We need the trough to dig a little more, and the low to start to develop a little further south or faster.

you are right.. the low started to bomb off the sc/nc coast.. really went to town afterward on its way to delmarva area.

[joey]

00z GGEM is much more amplified with the negative tilt. Obviously not significant enough- but certainly noticeable.

[Bostonseminole]

I don't have the GGEM updated yet.. are you guys sure that is correct?

[psuhoffman]

THERE could be an ASPECT TO JAN 2000 in this

I was thinking this but didn't want to get crucified by saying it.