0Z model discussion

[Midlo Snow Maker]

decent snows central ga upstate sc hr54 0.25"

[PhineasC]

Eh, 100 miles off Cape Fear doesn't sound good...

[NattyBo]

Per Tombo:

hr 60 has a sub 1004 low bout 100 miles east of cape fear lgt precip into central carolinas on east to the coast

[PhineasC]

Blech, east of GFS.

[Guest someguy]

AT 60 hrs 0z run vs 72 hr 12 run the 500 Low is clearly SHARPER over the se .. not as ROUND

[40/70 Benchmark]

Headed towards GFS, possibly better.

100% agree

[Guest someguy]

the Low track s and e of hatteras and well s of 40/70

NO snow at all over NYC Long Island BOS or even cape cod at 72 hrs Low is 988

[dg12x]

East of GFS...at 72hr low is in the same position as the 12z run. Precip does not reach the NJ coast.

[PhineasC]

NYC seems screwed but SNE should get destroyed on this run. Wide hook coming.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Wow....

You didn't catch the sarcasm but are the only one that caught the reference which was kind of the point....very few remember the finer details of 1/25/00.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/blizz2000/wvloop.gif

Not similar in all in the evolution of how it played out in the models, in the discussion leading up to the event or the expectations. At no time was this storm "gone" like it essentially was from the models for a time leading up. The finer details of how that whole event played out change with time and are becoming a thing of urban legends.

Sorry, back to the 0z EC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NYC seems screwed but SNE should get destroyed on this run. Wide hook coming.

Yea, GFS and EURO converging on classic "hook-and-latter" wallop for at least e sne.

[PhineasC]

Yea, GFS and EURO converging on classic "hook-and-latter" wallop for at least e sne.

Eh, I think the Euro grazes you guys, actually.

[RIC Airport]

Yea, GFS and EURO converging on classic "hook-and-latter" wallop for at least e sne.

But, Wilmington is too far away.

[Reale WX]

You're right. 10 years ago and my memory is foggy. I used to get up at 4:30 back then so there is no way I was awake for the late news. It must have been the 6pm forecasts vs the 9-10pm radar I was watching. Regardless, it was one heck of a surprise.

It was not until the 00z data came in where the models finally projected a huge storm. It is true that the midday and possibly even evening news projected light snow in DC maybe an inch or two when alot of people woke up to a near half foot.

Alot of things went wrong:

First, model initialization was awful. They did not do well with upper air conditions as someone stated, let alone did not even position the surface low in the right spot.

Second, because of that, the precip was severely underdone and significant convection took place over the south with resulted in extra latent heat release which in turn I believe helped aid in a stronger system and more inland track.

Finally, models did not pick up on the rapid cyclogenesis occurring over the SE states, which upon future research was being hinted at by the models, and spit out a much too weak system that tracked way too far to the east.

I realize it is a different set up this time, however you could make the comparison that a slower solution this time would allow more time to strengthen the low and cause a more inland track as the system closes off, which is very similar to the Jan 2000 Suprise storm... up until 00z Jan 24th I think the models spit out a solution similar to the current model forecasts for this storm. (NOT MAKING A DIRECT COMPARISON WITH THIS CURRENT STORM just saying)

[PhineasC]

Not much different than 12Z in the end.

[Guest someguy]

Yea, GFS and EURO converging on classic "hook-and-latter" wallop for at least e sne.

NOT the Euro

[Midlo Snow Maker]

dusting to ric nothing north orf looks like0.25-0.50 the outer banks do very well

[Midlo Snow Maker]

bos 0.50 cape cod 1"

[PhineasC]

Man, this storm is so fast now. Hits the coast and is gone.

[ArtRosen]

bos 0.50 cape cod 1"

does long island get in on the action?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Eh, I think the Euro grazes you guys, actually.

True that....oh well.

Looked more impressive, originally.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

main axis of the precip sheild did come west a little nyc ~0.05

[Reale WX]

Looks a heck of alot like last weekend track... maybe this thing will sit off the New England Coast again and give them 5 days of light snow like what happened this week (but probably not)

[PhineasC]

True that....oh well.

Looked more impressive, originally.

It did to me as well. Not sure what went wrong. I thought it would be west of 12Z for sure...

[40/70 Benchmark]

NOT the Euro

Yea, hindsight is 20\20

The way the EURO has gone, I won't shed any tears.....it had the blizz of '78 locked for like 6 consecutive runs.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

does long island get in on the action?

ARE YOU ASKING A IMBY QUESTION DURING STORM MODE?

EASTERN TIP 0.50 WESTERN TIP .10

[Reale WX]

does long island get in on the action?

Just the fringes my friend if I had to guess 0.1-0.2

[PhineasC]

This still remains a powderkeg in terms of potential for someone. A small change in the timing of the phase could give SNE a big storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This still remains a powderkeg in terms of potential for someone. A small change in the timing of the phase could give SNE a big storm.

I'd take the GFS in a hearbeat and I can't imagine this is far off from it, but in reality.....GFS is on the extreme end of the envelope.

[Analog96]

does long island get in on the action?

IF i had to make a call right now, I would say 2-4 in the NY metro, less west, more east. Eastern end of LI 6-10?