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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z NAM is north of its 12z run and the warm nose is howling.  On to the next run.  Always tough to know if the NAM is onto something or just amped.    Would have like to have seen some consistency there.  Looks a lot like the amped GFS runs.

I  am liking that run for sure looks good for my area :)

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2 hours ago, Kentucky said:

about .30 of ice Feb 20th-21th on top of about 7-8 inches of snow that had fell a couple days earlier if I remember correctly.  https://www.weather.gov/jkl/20150221_stormsummary

My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one.
 

146542d1426899313-ice-storm-devastation-https://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/cookeville/146539d1426899253-ice-storm-devastation-monterey-crossville-20150221_082023.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one.
 

146542d1426899313-ice-storm-devastation-https://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/cookeville/146539d1426899253-ice-storm-devastation-monterey-crossville-20150221_082023.jpg

I’m sorry but is that a P…… 

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13 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

My bad, I was looking at the year wrong lol. I thought you were referring to February 20-21, 2021. Yes, we started as snow, then sleet, and then heavy freezing rain in the February 21, 2015 storm. Woke up with no power and trees laying everywhere with over an inch of ice on everything. I'd say it tied the Feb 1998 snowstorm we had in SEKY where I lived for the worst storm I've been in. Our vehicle was pretty much glued to the ground (Sorry to derail thread for a sec). East TN did get mostly snow out of it, even in the valley ares. Definitely was a weird one.
 

146542d1426899313-ice-storm-devastation-https://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/cookeville/146539d1426899253-ice-storm-devastation-monterey-crossville-20150221_082023.jpg

the confusion may have been on my end, fascinating photos. 

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RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low:
giphy.gif?cid=790b7611388c27a4cd9f5b509ad19122a0d6c74fb775ae0e&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
 
giphy.gif?cid=790b761184e561d279d00dcb40478eb1803b3b6267e433e5&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
 
 
 
 

I was thinking it looked good and was also catching up to our storm. Could be quite productive if that secondary system threw some moisture in our area while we are still in a NW flow mode.

Edit: for some reason I quoted the wrong post.
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000
FXUS64 KOHX 132118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
318 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

.DISCUSSION...

UGH! What a hard and challenging forecast.

The upper impulse will continue to move through the area for the
next couple of hours and skies should clear out a bit overnight.
Tomorrow /Friday/ will be dry. Now here comes the challenges! The
models are still all over the place with no consistency to each
other or even to themselves. The NAM low had been moving north to
come in line better with the GFS and EURO but not the 12/18Z runs.
Was hoping there would be some kind of meeting in the middle for
the models...but no luck as of right now. The previous forecast
had the heaviest snow over NW Tennessee and along the TN/KY state
line. Current forecast now has the heaviest snow over the Plateau.
Let/s go with there will be a band of heavier snow somewhere
around I-40 and north. Where...your guess is as good as mine. The
higher amounts look to be in the 4-6" range...not some of the
crazier high end extreme amounts floating around the internet
right now.

Friday night into Saturday expect a really cold rain maybe with a
few flurries mixed in. It will take some time for the boundary
layer to cool down and moisten up. If any snow falls no
accumulations expected. With highs on Saturday in the 40s it will
be raining until possible late afternoon where there could be a
rain/snow mix first starting in the Fentress/Picket county areas
then spreading down the Plateau and west across the KY/TN state
line. That rain snow mix continues southward overnight and changes
to all snow for I-40 northward and the Plateau. The system pulls
out Sunday night and morning lows on Monday will be in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Would expect there will be some travel issues
Sunday night and maybe into Monday.

Highs on Monday in the 30s...so there could be some residual
wintery stuff around. Lows Monday night into Tuesday continued
cold in the 20s...but highs on Tuesday in the 40s so everything
should melt.

There is another short wave Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chance
PoP no really QPF expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mid clouds and a few sprinkles will move across terminals this
afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR at all sites. CSV
could see some fog development early Friday morning thanks to the
additional moisture pumped in by this afternoon`s wave.
Visibilities may fall for a few hours around sunrise. Winds will
be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 knots today, then become
lighter and more northerly overnight tonight.
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10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low:

giphy.gif?cid=790b761184e561d279d00dcb40

 

I can't say I have ever seen a tightly wrapped 850 in east central Alabama suddenly go all kidney bean look and barf all over east TN, but I think the energy behind it is interacting with it and causing it to pull more north.

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Nashville latest Discussion basically says not much accumulation unless your on Plateau and I40 North for middle tenn. Really No Snow for I40 south. 
 

They don’t know. They literally said “your guess is as good as mine” to where the snow sets up at. They also said the mods are all over the place with the track. I’m not clamoring to be something I’m not but I felt like multiple mods where very similar in the track now. Maybe that’s not true though.


.
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NWS Memphis had this below to say in their special weather statement for west Tennessee.  Also- Winter storm watches now up for about 10 counties in north central Arkansas as well.  


...Winter Storm to impact the Mid-South This Weekend...

A potent upper level low pressure system will move into the
Mid-South this weekend. Rain will begin to mix with snow across
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel Saturday afternoon
and will change to all snow by sunset Saturday evening. The
transition from rain to snow will occur across the rest of the
Mid-South from west to east Saturday Night into Sunday as colder
temperatures spread into the region. It is too early to pinpoint
exact amounts and locations of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall
amounts will be heavily dependent on the exact track of the
system. At this time, it appears the greatest potential for a
moderate to significant snowfall will occur across areas along and
north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. However, all
the Mid-South will likely see winter weather impacts with this
system. Travel will become hazardous Saturday Night into Sunday.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.
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