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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


Wurbus
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We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state.

GFS

image.thumb.png.68827c3cce831b532b6908123de17a3a.png

Euro

image.thumb.png.56afc140fc5ee24284df48f5bcff8da8.png

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I'm glad you started this. It's worthwhile to have regardless of the final outcome. Definitely an interesting model battle. I think we always tend to side with the models that don't show the most wintery outcome because we are used to that happening. If the Euro/UKIE/GEFS were showing nothing and the Canadian/GFS were showing a major winter storm we'd not believe it was happening either. I think we have several more days of model madness to come. The NAM will probably be amped and in Indiana.

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2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Well… I know we are down to only a couple of options that are on our side but I will roll the dice with the Euro most of the time.


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We have more on our side currently than not. Won't affect which, if any, are correct but it's GFS/Canadian OP vs everything else right now for the most part.

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This is like overtime in college football.  We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro.  Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds.  The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp.  The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC.  They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region.  

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Normally, I would never even give a GFS/CMC combo any weight in comparison a Euro/UK/GEFS/EPS combo.  I mean that last combo is stout.  I would throw out the GFS/CMC solutions or minimize their influence in my thinking.  However, they have done ok with the past couple of storms.  Seems like the Euro woefully missed the warm-nose for E TN.  Not sure the GFS did much better though!   That said, this will be a test of those models as they were recently updated.  FTR, I am not sure the GEFS received the update or not.  Seems like it was supposed to, but I never checked.

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3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is like overtime in college football.  We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro.  Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds.  The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp.  The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC.  They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region.  

The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op.

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op.

Yep forgot about that.  I do think it does a better job with the warm-nose(maybe Jeff said that in the other thread).  But tough right now to discount the steady Euro run which actually has support from the GEFS and its own EPS.  Guessing one of the two blinks by 0z.  There is an argument to be made that it will cut, but that almost requires an amped solution over Louisiana.  And the model with amping problems is the one cutting it.  Tough call.  Never thought I would see the day where the Euro has the consistently most progressive model run.

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1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state.

GFS

image.thumb.png.68827c3cce831b532b6908123de17a3a.png

Euro

image.thumb.png.56afc140fc5ee24284df48f5bcff8da8.png

Sevier County snowhole occurs and I am moving

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