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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


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4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run.Screenshot_20220113-223902_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4459dd0c551db559a312cf19f09eb4d6.jpg

Screenshot_20220113-224103_Chrome~2.jpg

I am going to have to go back and look, I thought the MSLP looked quite different on the RGEM.  There is a faint hint of residual low pressure even on the 18z Euro.  The NAM held it there a lot longer, but I will go back and look.  RGEM looks like it got the secondary going more quickly. 

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11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Both 0z NAM and 0z RGEM @66...both take a low right into the Smokies. RGEM started having it on the 18z run.Screenshot_20220113-223902_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4459dd0c551db559a312cf19f09eb4d6.jpg

Screenshot_20220113-224103_Chrome~2.jpg

Here are the same hours....Secondary is already forming with the RGEM.  Nam is a strung out mess with the primary still going strong over the Smokies.   RGEM is actually a great track.  Hand off issues withe these big storms are the norm for NE TN.  

Screen_Shot_2022-01-13_at_10.56.32_PM.pn

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1 minute ago, mempho said:

Models historically have underestimated Gulf moisturize when these type systems tap the Gulf. Think about that.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

As long as there is not convection along the GOM, very much agree.  The first storm, we got robbed in NE TN when convection popped there and cut of our tap!  LOL.

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm not sure what all goes into it. Jeff may know. It's where the point forecasts come from I believe. 

For folks who have WxBell, they have that model.  I kind of like how it works, but just don't know if it will catch trends if it doesn't include the current suite.  So, I am not sure how useful it is.  

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It is possible that we leave the 0z suite with a reasonable cone for a slp track.  Once that happens, we can worry about slp strength, downslope, etc.  Middle TN and the Plateau look to be great spots.  E TN is still very much an unknown.  If we get an inland runner track(and the primary doesn't hold on for too long over the Smokies which allows for the secondary to form further south than the NAM), a strong secondary slp would overcome lots of problems.  As is, the inland runner track looks to be a "go."  Just need that storm to get going over SC and not NC.

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For folks who have WxBell, they have that model.  I kind of like how it works, but just don't know if it will catch trends if it doesn't include the current suite.  So, I am not sure how useful it is.  

"WHAT IS NBM?
The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation."

 

I would guess it's the NAM/GFS family + the Euro suite. 

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is possible that we leave the 0z suite with a reasonable cone for a slp track.  Once that happens, we can worry about slp strength, downslope, etc.  Middle TN and the Plateau look to be great spots.  E TN is still very much an unknown.  If we get an inland runner track(and the primary doesn't hold on for too long over the Smokies which allows for the secondary to form further south than the NAM), a strong secondary slp would overcome lots of problems.  As is, the inland runner track looks to be a "go."  Just need that storm to get going over SC and not NC.

I'd love to see it track from Columbia to Danville Virginia. 

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Just now, John1122 said:

I hope for all our sakes a Canadian solution comes to pass. That's solid for the whole forum basically. I'll take a few less inches if everyone gets more. 

Looks like the Euro track.  So the 0z GFS/NAM are kind of on their own.  We will see what the Euro does in a bit.  May set an alarm for that one.

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