Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @clskinsfanhow you feeling up that way man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 also worth noting that the GFS is considerably warmer at the start of Sunday than most other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Buddy1987 said: @clskinsfanhow you feeling up that way man? He’s torn between beatdown, hammered, crushed and catastrophic ice storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, high risk said: also worth noting that the GFS is considerably warmer at the start of Sunday than most other guidance. If we could have euro thermals and GFS thump, the area would be really happy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs looks torchy at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW 8 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s torn between beatdown, hammered, crushed and catastrophic ice storm. I'd venture to say he's got something good picked out to drink too HAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I take and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW These maps literally look like layers of consciousness...and something out of Dr. Seuss, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I just don't see that with this track but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I take and run. I realize this is a broad brush map for a large area, but if Garrett/Tucker/laurels jack, I'm probably not getting 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 LOL DT has literally had the same map style for like 20 years. You gotta love it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: I just don't see that with this track but we'll see. Compare it to the euro snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I see DT returned safely from Wal-Mart with a “Fischer Price My First Forecast Kit” and a box of crayons. I think the box of crayons were free with a rebate though 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I see DT returned safely from Wal-Mart with a “Fischer Price My First Forecast Kit” and a box of crayons. I think the box of crayons were free with a rebate though Talk about crayons 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty If it looks like that on the GFS w/ a lower vertical resolution-- I can almost guarantee it's already sleeting. 60+ knots in the warm layer. Once the diabatic cooling potential is gone from evaporation, that mix line is going to *fly* through. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MDsnowPRO said: RGEM….Hmmm That’s what we call a flat high and it’s perfect but storm too far away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’m not following the purple through SEVA on that. It’ll start Monday 1a there but Sunday 1p in NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Talk about crayons I’ve seen kindergarten scribble scrabble that looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Talk about crayons So it looks like start times in NE AND southern Va are both at 1am Monday. “That would be a neat trick.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GGEM has single digits N&W of 95 Sunday morning, low teens for the cities. Even if overdone, that’s some impressive cold (yes, realize this setup will scour out the mid levels quickly yadda yadda). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: So it looks like start times in NE AND southern Va are both at 1am Monday. “That would be a neat trick.” I'm more impressed that Roanoke and much of the state of Tennessee have multiple start times for the same location. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow!0 chance i get 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! 0 chance i get 10 5 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! 0 chance i get 10 60 percent chance you get 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. 100%, the h5 passage going through spots like WV (RGEM) is almost never going to end well for us. The 0z gfs was ever so slightly south with the pass thru DC/NVA. If that gets down to EZF even, there would normally be improvements in the result at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Too east lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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