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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty

gfs_2022011400_fh72_sounding_KDCA.png

If it looks like that on the GFS w/ a lower vertical resolution-- I can almost guarantee it's already sleeting. 60+ knots in the warm layer. Once the diabatic cooling potential is gone from evaporation, that mix line is going to *fly* through.

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6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol

The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. 

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2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. 

100%, the h5 passage going through spots like WV (RGEM) is almost never going to end well for us. The 0z gfs was ever so slightly south with the pass thru DC/NVA. If that gets down to EZF even, there would normally be improvements in the result at the surface. 

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