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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, look....we aren't getting 2'+ out of a pure Miller A...but they can still work out, and we can't be picky right now. There is also time to modulate this....I doubt it closes off quite that far south and we could also get some n stream insert. Bottom line is don't sweat details at this juncture.

I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We do the pbp because that is what we do here but when the dust settles…at this lead time…we don’t sweat the deets, just keep the big signal.

The notion that Miller A and B cyclogenesis are two entirely binary concepts is so archaic....the reality of the matter is that:

1) The vast majority of events are some sort of hybrid to varying degrees.

2) Most of our best systems are hybrid that carry s stream juice with n stream reinvigoration on approach south of LI.

That said, I would rather not see a system closed off before it gets to the mid atl, but I'm not so picky these days.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago.

Dude, once we whiffed on the last 3 threats, our fate was mostly sealed for a below average snowfall winter.....sure, we could rebound, but it's very unlikely at this point where we are. Areas further southwest in CT that have gotten a little more plus a lower snowfall climo to begin with have an easier path to getting to normal snowfall.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago.

As someone who forecasted a PV split late in the season, you are falling into the Judah Cohen trap of being too reliant on it....its not the only element to the hemispheric weather pattern.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one.

 

 

Jan21_12zEPS198.png

Jan21_12zEPS204.png

Jan21_12zEPS210.png

The trough looks considerably further east than the last major cutter. OTS is more of a risk imo. 

I think the new Euro upgrade amps the storms too far. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one.

 

 

Jan21_12zEPS198.png

Jan21_12zEPS204.png

Jan21_12zEPS210.png

The left-side cluster is actually pretty insane.  Going through the panels in time, it appears they may have tracked to that point from waaaay out in the Atlantic.  One runner and one tucker among 51 members.

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19 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago.

Time to call in the Navy???

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