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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That JMA model is fun to watch... wow.   Actually not altogether too different than the UKMET... and might actually offer a reasonable look at what the UKMET's extrapolation might result ... getting from 168 to 192. 

 

Just a casual 3" qpf over eastern mass.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That JMA model is fun to watch... wow.   Actually not altogether too different than the UKMET... and might actually offer a reasonable look at what the UKMET's extrapolation might result ... getting from 168 to 192. 

 

If the JMA is in even the same time zone as the other models, the threat is legit.

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7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Nam looks a little better this run for mon/tues

So I looked again and I understand what you mean...if all we get is the n/s sw then yeah. But it wanted to bring the low up the coast tuesday evening last run. It will slowly but surely cave on that aspect

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6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Its no big shakes either way but a 1-2 inch refresher is ok.

Well even this run, it was definitely trying for something bigger than what we've been discussing. It just has zero support from anything else, and is already backing down from 12z. But who knows, I've seen weirder.

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

It might be silly but I just hate to have frigid air with brown ground, even an inch or two makes it so much more like winter.

I'm glad I have 10"+ of pack because this cold would be doing a number on the root systems of my young fruit trees without it. 32F at 4" deep and 33F at 8" deep. So yeah, it looks like winter, but it's functional too.

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Just now, WeatherX said:


Sure. What am I missing?


.

The potential for one or even two gigantic systems at the end of the month that modeling is still trying to resolve. Granted, we could be talking first couple days of Feb, but I'd bet against dry for the overall period ending around 2/3. Maybe I'd lose.

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