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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love for that GFS run to verify. Definitely need to see the Euro show something to get excited...

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

For sure. Euro is flatter, weaker and warmer during the day Friday.

I know who my bet would be on, but hey at least maybe it's a sign of a potential early start to winter before we wear shorts on Christmas. :lol: 

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#natgas
As I thought it can not get more intense, nature tops it again with a December 6 forecast beyond imagination. Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Grönland Street (red circle) are closed and poised to freeze off. Freezing line goes deep into the heart of the South (yellow circle). https://t.co/11bglLzOg7

 

 

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16 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

#natgas
As I thought it can not get more intense, nature tops it again with a December 6 forecast beyond imagination. Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Grönland Street (red circle) are closed and poised to freeze off. Freezing line goes deep into the heart of the South (yellow circle). https://t.co/11bglLzOg7

 

 

 1. Speaking of "natgas", which is tagged in both tweets, it is currently actually down 3% vs the Friday close. So, from that market's perspective at least, the intensity of projected December cold for the E half of the US overall vs how it looked Friday at 12Z isn't exciting fwiw. If it were, that market would almost definitely be up now.

2. I'm wary of those tweets that talk about cold in the E US and also tag "natgas". When they do that, they're often trying to get natgas prices to spike up meaning there may be an ulterior motive to such tweets.

3. That all being said, three of the eight third year cold ENSO analogs had quite a cold December in the SE US: 1910, 1917, and 2000. So, that tells me that a cold December in the SE is a decent possibility. Whether or not it is December, I think there's a good chance that one of the three winter months will be solidly cold.

 

Edit: Natural gas, which was down 3% earlier as mentioned, reversed to go higher at 8AM as ensembles turned colder late in the runs at 0Z/6Z.

Edit #2: As of 2:20 PM, it is up a whopping 8% (session high) on continued support for a cold December from the 12Z runs! That's quite impressive.

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 The +PNA has the highest correlation to SE US snow overall for any non-seasonal binary index. That's especially the case the deeper in the SE one goes. This includes major NC snowstorms, which I researched earlier. This idea excludes ZR.

 Based on my own past research, this strong correlation also applies to cold, again especially deeper into the SE.

 Regarding seasonal, El Niño has the highest correlation for both in the SE. It is no coincidence that a more frequent +PNA is favored by El Niño over other ENSO.

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21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The +PNA has the highest correlation to SE US snow overall for any non-seasonal binary index. That's especially the case the deeper in the SE one goes. This includes major NC snowstorms, which I researched earlier. This idea excludes ZR.

 Followup with more details for NC major snow based on my own research:

 When I look at very heavy RDU winter storms (I chose the 21 6”+ for minimum needed, which means mainly or all snow in just about all cases) since 1950, a +PNA was favored a pretty decent amount:

 

+PNA (+0.25+): 11 storms (52%)

Neutral PNA (-0.25 to +0.25): 7 storms (33%)

-PNA (-0.25-): 3 storms (14%)

 

 So, for RDU for heavy snowstorms, there’s a partial correlation with a +PNA.

  Note that this isn’t for mainly ZR/IP, which keep the total under 6”. These probably prefer a -PNA to neutral PNA. I don’t know for sure though.

 I think what it boils down to is that classic major SE Miller A snowstorms prefer neutral to +PNA as opposed to CAD based Miller B icestorms, which probably prefer neutral to -PNA. For the +PNA big snows, the mean trough normally needs to be fairly close to the Mississippi River so that it doesn’t suppress the storm track too far south.

 

 Here's the PNA and the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral PNA/NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):

 

-1/19/1955: +0.1 neutral PNA; -0.8 -NAO

- 12/11/1958: +0.7 +PNA; +0.0 neutral NAO

- 3/2-3/1960: -0.8 -PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: -0.5 -PNA; -0.2 neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: +1.3 +PNA; +0.2 neutral NAO

- 1/25-7/1966: +0.2 neutral PNA; -1.2 -NAO

- 2/9/1967: +0.5 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO

- 3/1/1969:  +1.3 +PNA; -0.6 -NAO

- 1/7-8/1973: +0.3 +PNA; -1.1 -NAO

- 2/18-9/1979: -0.0 neutral PNA; -0.1 neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +0.2 neutral PNA; +0.4 +NAO

- 3/24/1983: +0.7 +PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO

- 2/6/1984: +0.7 +PNA; +1.1 +NAO

- 1/7-8/1988: +0.7 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO

- 2/17-8/1989: +0.0 neutral PNA; +1.6 +NAO

- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): +0.8 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 1/2-3/2002: +1.2 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 2/26-7/2004: -0.1 neutral PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 12/25-6/2010: -0.3 -PNA; -0.9 -NAO

- 1/17-8/2018: -0.1 neutral PNA; +1.2 +NAO

- 12/9-10/2018: +0.9 +PNA; +0.9 +NAO

 

Tallies:

1) PNA:

+PNA: 11 (highest +1.3)

Neutral PNA: 7

-PNA: 3 (lowest -0.8)

 **Average PNA for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.4

 

2) NAO:

-NAO: 8 (lowest -1.2)

Neutral NAO: 6

+NAO: 7 (highest +1.6)

**Average NAO for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.0

Correlation of +PNA and surface temperatures DJF:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/correlation/corr.test1.pl?iregr=1&var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=&iy[2]=&ilead=0&ilag=0&type=2&timefile=&customtitle=&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scale=&switch=0&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

-------------------------------

Data sources:

1) RDU 6"+ snowstorms:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

 

2) Daily PNA:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

 

3) Daily NAO:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/nao.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

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