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December 2021


MJO812
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I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run. 

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16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't see the 00z eps getting to phase 8. Looking like phase 7 still to me throughout that run. What I think we’re seeing is a wave break or two that grabs a piece of that ridge and pushes it poleward. A lot of guidance is showing something like that. So maybe that pushes some of that cold east somewhat for a time. It seems to me as though the same overall pattern is still in place for the most part. At least on that run. 

That low north of Japan weakens which helps push the -epo domain east. 

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This is what I am talking about for early Jan. LR GFS so NOT saying this exact storm will happen but early Jan an event or 2 such as this CAN produce light to moderate snowfall.

If I was a gambler I would NOT bet on a ratter (my definition of ratter is less than 10 inches of snowfall for the year). Hell 11/12 I received 11.5 for the season including the October storm. 

Wide range since it's early 10 to 20 on the season. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_41.png

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One thing I have noticed on the ensembles this morning is that although the trough stays out west, we get repeated bouts of cold air. Having an intense cold lobe nearby in our hemisphere allows for these cold snaps. Easy for a trailing wave to produce.

This pattern looks static throughout the entire run on all three ensembles.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy today. It will turn milder. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 43.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 43.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.9°

The remainder of December will see generally above normal temperatures.

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So let's take a look at the MJO currently. When I look at this picture, I see that the MJO did in fact propagate east. However, it was shunted to the southern hemisphere just like the NOAA update said was possible due to la Niña. So it has minimal effect where we are. What we're left with, is the anchor by Australia and the feedback loop. But also, the strong subsidence in the Indian ocean. Which is also anchored in place by all of this. Guidance is showing a new wave forming in association with the feedback loop. Just my take on it. 

 

1180153265_28(2).thumb.gif.c7ab6bcdf5f32c9bcea186578107c450.gif

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

everyone needs to have a/c by now.  It should actually be illegal for everyone not to have a/c 

 

A lot of residential places in B.C. don't have a/c. Summer temps usually hover in the 70's and low 80's. So I can only imagine what 120 would've been like. My family said the air was choking because of all the wildfires. It was dry heat tho but if it happened here we would've been done.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that the long range models have been consistently underestimating the -PNA and SE Ridge in their forecasts beyond 8-10 days.

 

New day 4-8 forecast for last week of December

580BD994-CA78-4A59-9FD1-1861D19E1765.thumb.png.fb64229c742061823f35a7e148f6926d.png

Old day 10-14 forecast for the last week of December 

 

F340E97D-E820-4E0F-9FB6-E0781C8FCD5D.thumb.png.04a40fe483e9d30ab3d56c9428fb4e48.png

 

Agree. What we were discussing is how the low north of Japan is forecast to weaken. If one of those players show change then it might have merit this time. 

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000
NOUS41 KOKX 241531
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-250331-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 AM EST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
New Canaan                   1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   Trained Spotter
Norwalk                      1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Darien                       1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Norwalk                      1.0 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Sandy Hook                   1.0 in    0930 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Redding                      0.7 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Stratford                    0.5 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Monroe                       0.5 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Bethel                       0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Fairfield                    0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Brookfield                   0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Ridgefield                   0.5 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Old Greenwich                0.5 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Fairfield 1.1 SSE            0.5 in    0819 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Bridgeport                   0.2 in    0700 AM 12/24   CO-OP Observer
Bethel 4.5 SSE               0.1 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Middlesex County...
Clinton                      1.2 in    0752 AM 12/24   Broadcast Media
Killingworth                 1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Higganum                     0.8 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Salem 2.8 WNW                0.3 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...New Haven County...
Guilford                     1.1 in    0700 AM 12/24   CO-OP Observer
Hamden                       0.7 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Yalesville                   0.6 in    0810 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Wallingford                  0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Naugatuck                    0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Prospect                     0.5 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Guilford Center 2.7 WSW      0.3 in    0830 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...New London County...
Colchester 0.6 ENE           1.5 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Old Lyme                     1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Oakdale                      1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Norwich                      1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COOP
Griswold                     1.0 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
New London                   0.9 in    0900 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Preston                      0.7 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Norwich 5.2 SE               0.6 in    0745 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Stonington                   0.6 in    0900 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
East Lyme                    0.5 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Niantic                      0.5 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Waterford                    0.4 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Groton                       0.4 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Pawcatuck                    0.3 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Mystic                       0.2 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
Ridgewood                    1.9 in    0730 AM 12/24   Trained Spotter
Oakland                      1.0 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Tenafly                      0.3 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Essex County...
Verona                       1.4 in    0830 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Livingston Twp 2.0 NNE       1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Montclair                    0.9 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Livingston                   0.9 in    0900 AM 12/24   Public
Maplewood                    0.2 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Hudson County...
Harrison                     0.5 in    0400 AM 12/24   CO-OP Observer

...Passaic County...
Little Falls                 1.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Hawthorne                    0.6 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Union County...
Westfield                    0.2 in    0715 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
New Providence               0.2 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Newark Airport               0.1 in    0700 AM 12/24   Official NWS Obs

...New York...

...Nassau County...
Manhasset Hills              0.5 in    0915 AM 12/24   Cocorahs
Albertson 0.2 SSE            0.4 in    0730 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Syosset                      0.2 in    0815 AM 12/24   COOP
Hicksville                   0.1 in    0626 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...New York County...
Central Park                 0.2 in    0700 AM 12/24   Official NWS Obs

...Orange County...
0.8 N Port Jervis            2.0 in    0700 AM 12/24   COOP
Port Jervis                  1.5 in    0630 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Monroe                       1.0 in    0655 AM 12/24   Trained Spotter
Walden                       0.7 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Putnam County...
Cold Spring                  0.4 in    0715 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Carmel Hamlet                0.4 in    0810 AM 12/24   COOP

...Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia               0.6 in    0700 AM 12/24   Official NWS Obs
Whitestone                   0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   Public
Little Neck 0.3 SE           0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
NYC/JFK                      0.2 in    0700 AM 12/24   Official NWS Obs

...Suffolk County...
Mattituck                    0.8 in    0857 AM 12/24   Trained Spotter
1 S Deer Park                0.5 in    0630 AM 12/24   Public
Sayville                     0.5 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Brightwaters                 0.5 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Orient Point                 0.5 in    0800 AM 12/24   COOP
Centereach                   0.4 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Fishers Island               0.4 in    0700 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Upton                        0.4 in    0700 AM 12/24   COOP
Riverhead                    0.4 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Port Jefferson Station       0.4 in    0830 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Islip Airport                0.3 in    0700 AM 12/24   Official NWS Obs
Amityville                   0.3 in    0800 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Nesconset                    0.3 in    0816 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
Center Moriches              0.2 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS

...Westchester County...
Armonk                       1.1 in    0830 AM 12/24   Public
Shrub Oak                    0.7 in    0600 AM 12/24   COCORAHS
White Plains                 0.4 in    0830 AM 12/24   Trained Spotter
&&
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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

A lot of residential places in B.C. don't have a/c. Summer temps usually hover in the 70's and low 80's. So I can only imagine what 120 would've been like. My family said the air was choking because of all the wildfires. It was dry heat tho but if it happened here we would've been done.

It's amazing how quickly a/c usage drops from Portland to Seattle to Vancouver, but they never ever get this kind of heat so it's understandable.  I never thought any place in Canada was capable of hitting 120, in the US it's confined to only the hottest part of the country.  I heard a town was burned from all the fires (Lytton?)
 

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