December 2021

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

Hopefully? wtf lol it would be an absolute disaster.

You can't be this out of touch...

If people don't have a/c they should have it put in for them, in our new climate THERE'S NO WAY ANYONE CAN LIVE WITHOUT IT.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

Hopefully? wtf lol it would be an absolute disaster.

You can't be this out of touch...

110 at Newark?  Nah we already got super close to it in July 2011.

Not  a huge deal, especially with a/c

It's just as historic as getting a 30 inch snowstorm.

People who actually LOVE weather should ROOT for ALL weather extremes.

Anyone who doesn't like extreme heat is just FAT.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our snow amounts seem to be more a function of storm track and teleconnections than temperature. We just got a light snow event today with an average NYC December temperature of 44.1°. We had a much more favorable Pacific in November 2018 and NYC picked   up 6.4” of snow with an average temperature of 44.4°. So favorable patterns can produce more snow than the same temperature in a less favorable pattern. The January average temperature in 2019 was 32.5° and NYC got 1.1” of snow. But a much warmer January 2012 picked up 4.3” with a 37.3° average temperature. The difference between the two years was that the pattern in 2012 allowed a better storm track for one day than the whole month of January 2019 got.  But it’s easier for NYC to reach 50” of snow if they get extended cold like 14-15.  We had close to a 40-40 winter for parts of area in 2016 and 2017. But the 40° winter in 11-12 only produced single digit seasonal snowfalls for many. Factors like storm track and Pacific favorability play a large role in snowfall amounts for us. 

But you can't compare November to December lol, the average temperatures are radically different.  Also, average temperatures are just a smoothed out mean for the whole month and meaningless for extremes on individual days which are still possible.  It's an apples to oranges comparison.

Was 15-16 our only 40/40 winter?  I seem to recall there was another one here.

 

Also 11-12 was a horrendous winter, that one day might have been the only decent snowfall that entire winter.

[eduggs]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models bringing back the Monday light snow event. 

Upper level support decreases as the system approaches us from the west. The precipitation will also be fighting dry air as it tries to move east. But there could be a sneaky burst of snow maybe just southwest of us? CPA, SNJ. At least it's a threat worth watching.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Upper level support decreases as the system approaches us from the west. The precipitation will also be fighting dry air as it tries to move east. But there could be a sneaky burst of snow maybe just southwest of us? CPA, SNJ. At least it's a threat worth watching.

It could be very similar to what we got this time, just coming from the SW instead of NW.  coating-1 inch

 

[eduggs]

The GFS and CMC are pretty juiced up for Monday with >0.75 liquid into NWMD and SWPA. The precipitation will likely hit a wall as it moves through PA, but we might be able to scape some light snow out of it.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

You should never hope for 110 here. Given our high dews that's a recipe for 125-130F HI which would be lethal. 

We're talking brownouts, blackouts and a lot of people dying. 

Checking through records we already had close to 130 heat index in July 1995 and just a few years ago in July we had a 117 heat index on back to back days.  I'm a huge fan of dry heat though I hate humidity more than I hate anything else on this planet.  I want westerly winds all summer long.

 

 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be very similar to what we got this time, just coming from the SW instead of NW.  coating-1 inch

 

It could, and I would take it. A few spots in NJ and EPA got over 2" with this batch. And parts of CT and RI got over 3". Sometimes you can get lucky, even in a seemingly lousy pattern. It looks very wintry out my window today.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But you can't compare November to December lol, the average temperatures are radically different.  Also, average temperatures are just a smoothed out mean for the whole month and meaningless for extremes on individual days which are still possible.  It's an apples to oranges comparison.

 

The extreme of snow in November 2018 was a result of the very favorable Pacific and record -EPO. Your point about comparing two different months doesn’t change the fact the the average monthly temperatures were the same. So you are actually agreeing with me that’s it’s more about storm track and teleconnections than the temperatures.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It could, and I would take it. A few spots in NJ and EPA got over 2" with this batch. And parts of CT and RI got over 3". Sometimes you can get lucky, even in a seemingly lousy pattern. It looks very wintry out my window today.

I remember in the 80s when we used to get little events like these and we treasured them lol.  4" was rare so that was like a blockbuster.  Even getting a 1" snow event was a treat.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extreme of snow in November 2018 was a result of the very favorable Pacific and record -EPO. Your point about comparing two different months doesn’t change the fact the the average monthly temperatures were the same. So you are actually agreeing with me that’s it’s more about storm track and teleconnections than the temoersyures.

It is but I wonder if we transposed the November pattern into December would we have the same outcome?  And for that matter, how much colder would the November 2018 average temperatures be if we transposed them into December with the identical pattern?  I agree about having a favorable pattern, and average monthly temperatures not being that important.... I would hesitate even further to compare November temps to December temps because the same pattern a month later would result in a different (lower) average temp.

 

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

110 at Newark?  Nah we already got super close to it in July 2011.

Not  a huge deal, especially with a/c

It's just as historic as getting a 30 inch snowstorm.

People who actually LOVE weather should ROOT for ALL weather extremes.

Anyone who doesn't like extreme heat is just FAT.

Nah I hated heat even before I got fat

[NEG NAO]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

January 2nd continues to look good

how does it look good ?

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It is but I wonder if we transposed the November pattern into December would we have the same outcome?  And for that matter, how much colder would the November 2018 average temperatures be if we transposed them into December with the identical pattern?  I agree about having a favorable pattern, and average monthly temperatures not being that important.... I would hesitate even further to compare November temps to December temps because the same pattern a month later would result in a different (lower) average temp.

 

I was agreeing with the post that I was replying to. It can snow in warm winter patterns. We saw this with the 16-17 winter which had more DJF snow than 18-19 which was colder. The more favorable Pacific intervals in 16-17 made the difference. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was agreeing with the post that I was replying to. It can snow in warm winter patterns. We saw this with the 16-17 winter which had more DJF snow than 18-19 which was colder. The more favorable Pacific intervals in 16-17 made the difference. 

that super el nino had left its mark for that second year....thats why la ninas that happen right after el ninos give us so much snow (like 1995-1996 and 2010-11 too.)

 

[LibertyBell]

 

[LibertyBell]

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Upper level support decreases as the system approaches us from the west. The precipitation will also be fighting dry air as it tries to move east. But there could be a sneaky burst of snow maybe just southwest of us? CPA, SNJ. At least it's a threat worth watching.

Agree! 

[EasternLI]

Hmmm, perhaps the wave break idea is gaining support. Due to Pacific jet extension from high pressure decent in E Asia. This is not the only thing showing this. 

 

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how does it look good ?

Gfs and gefs

Pattern recognition

 

[MJO812]

Euro continues to show some front end snow

[EasternLI]

GFS is doing it too. I think this is what we were seeing on the EPS mean as well.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

110 at Newark?  Nah we already got super close to it in July 2011.

Not  a huge deal, especially with a/c

It's just as historic as getting a 30 inch snowstorm.

People who actually LOVE weather should ROOT for ALL weather extremes.

Anyone who doesn't like extreme heat is just FAT.

I have my limits. 
 

Also I’m not fat, I’m a thicc boi. 

[qg_omega]

 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro continues to show some front end snow

 

Nice shift on the Euro towards a 1-3" type deal. Gets snow into SENY and WCT. It actually appears to be the furthers northeast of the major models. The 500mb s/w vorticity also survives a bit longer as it traverses NE.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

how does it look good ?

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

Beautiful example of the wave break there on that. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

always rely on the ensembles 10 days out........

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

always rely on the ensembles 10 days out........

Better than relying on the op

Are you serious ?

[eduggs]

The Monday deal could easily punch warmth too far north or get shredded. Riding the narrow cold leading edge of a warm front is a tricky proposition. The important thing is there are a few medium and larger range wintry threats to keep entertained for now.