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December 2021


MJO812
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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies were pretty consistent since early December in showing a strong -PNA continuing into January. But there was a quick flip to more of -AO in mid-December. So some people took this a good change. But several of us were pointing out that we needed improvement on the Pacific side to make things work. There were even a couple EPS runs that tried to push the ridge a little closer the the West Coast that backed off after only a few runs. While models can see an important signal like the -PNA long range, it verified much stronger the closer we got. The whole Aleutians ridge feedback process really took off. 
 

Dec 23 EPS run for Dec 27 to Jan 3

 

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Dec 6 run for Dec 27 to Jan 3


862BE38B-220F-433A-B1A2-2405CE5FF412.jpeg.ef37d9807baf534b2def9b1f89949882.jpeg

 

 

This is not good. If correct, (not saying it is) we are in trouble: 

 

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15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

First half of January  is starting to look better on the ensembles. 

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that was a nice surprise. woke up cause of this coronavirus and boom there's snow on the ground. i got some high fever and i can't seem to warm up. i don't know what's going on right now. weird virus definitely not as bad as earlier this year when i got it but it confused me, yesterday i was fine and now today i got high fever and i'm cold and i can't stop peeing! nothing major though. back to weather we had a nice surprise and evaporative cooling and dynamic cooling lowered the temperature to below 32 and now there's a nice coating on the ground. i'll take what i can at least!

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20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is some possibility. Some of the underlying drivers e.g., strong PDO- have remained relatively intact. The wave lengths have shortened. A La Niña has developed. A La Niña combined with a PNA- has often seen significant cold and snowy outcomes in the Pacific Northwest.

thanks so if we have an excessively hot summer next year, I think that actually increases our odds for a snowy winter (my comparison would be something like the 2002 summer followed by the 2002-03 winter.)

I'd be looking for 30 90+ days and at least 1 100+ day (at JFK and NYC too) and for July to avg 80.0+

 

 

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20 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's very similar to those bad years of 01-02 and 11-12 just a bit cooler.  Nov of both of those years was very warm, this year it was slightly cooler than ave.   The precip pattern is very similar-bone dry with no storms anywhere near us.

my point is it would actually be exciting if we had no snow for the entire winter.  It's frustrating that the record of 72-73 still hasn't been broken

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20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

yeah this is why you want very hot summers around here if you like snowy winters

 

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12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's gonna be a historic winter out west. Really good for the drought situation. 

Highs in the teens possibly and single digits lows for Seattle. Below zero for Vancouver. This after 115-120F temperatures last summer. 

should've seen this coming with how hot it was there over the summer.

Hopefully it hits 110 here over the summer so we get our turn

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

awesome my sister asked me if she can turn off her heat in her house in January.  She has a place in the city where she stays too, so she wants to shut off both her water and her heat at her house when she's not there and if it's not cold it will save her a lot in heating bills.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

should've seen this coming with how hot it was there over the summer.

Hopefully it hits 110 here over the summer so we get our turn

nobody wants 110 degrees here God forbid that happens. that's a disaster and people will die especially in new york because it gets oppressed no matter how much snow i get during the winter. 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

awesome my sister asked me if she can turn off her heat in her house in January.  She has a place in the city where she stays too, so she wants to shut off both her water and her heat at her house when she's not there and if it's not cold it will save her a lot in heating bills.

 

bro we've been officially two days in winter, lol i don't think it's wise to shut off heat and hot water. i'm sure the weather is going to get colder

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2 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

nobody wants 110 degrees here God forbid that happens. that's a disaster and people will die especially in new york because it gets oppressed no matter how much snow i get during the winter. 

everyone needs to have a/c by now.  It should actually be illegal for everyone not to have a/c 

 

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33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

should've seen this coming with how hot it was there over the summer.

Hopefully it hits 110 here over the summer so we get our turn

You should never hope for 110 here. Given our high dews that's a recipe for 125-130F HI which would be lethal. 

We're talking brownouts, blackouts and a lot of people dying. 

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Ensembles look less extreme with -PNA and also shifted it east some. Could be a response to MJO 7 as we head into January.

If that's the case then the first week of January should be on the colder side with a possible arctic shot as well. 

Any relaxation of the -PNA would be good for us as blocking is still present.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

should've seen this coming with how hot it was there over the summer.

Hopefully it hits 110 here over the summer so we get our turn

Hopefully? wtf lol it would be an absolute disaster.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

everyone needs to have a/c by now.  It should actually be illegal for everyone not to have a/c 

 

You can't be this out of touch...

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The last 8 days of December are averaging  42degs.(39/45), or +8>>>+5 nowadays.

Month to date is  44.1[+4.0].      December should end at  43.5[+4.4].

Reached 39 here yesterday.

Today: 40-42, 44 by tomorrow AM, wind variable, m. cloudy.

Next snow threat of merit is Jan. 03-06., before the 50's start again.

39*(70%RH) here at 6am.{was 35* at 4am}.   38* at 7am.      40* at 1pm.      44* at 2pm.

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12 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I still think we get our snow chances once the NAO relaxes and allows a few cutters to get the colder air east. This would allow for weaker trailing waves to produce.

The NAO is hurting us here.

Hey if we can snow in Feb 2018 when it was 70 the day before......

 

Our snow amounts seem to be more a function of storm track and teleconnections than temperature. We just got a light snow event today with an average NYC December temperature of 44.1°. We had a much more favorable Pacific in November 2018 and NYC picked   up 6.4” of snow with an average temperature of 44.4°. So favorable patterns can produce more snow than the same temperature in a less favorable pattern. The January average temperature in 2019 was 32.5° and NYC got 1.1” of snow. But a much warmer January 2012 picked up 4.3” with a 37.3° average temperature. The difference between the two years was that the pattern in 2012 allowed a better storm track for one day than the whole month of January 2019 got.  But it’s easier for NYC to reach 50” of snow if they get extended cold like 14-15.  We had close to a 40-40 winter for parts of area in 2016 and 2017. But the 40° winter in 11-12 only produced single digit seasonal snowfalls for many. Factors like storm track and Pacific favorability play a large role in snowfall amounts for us. 

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