bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 It’s good that the strong winds wait until a day after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo signature on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice negative epo signature on the gfs Gefs is also showing a colder 1st week of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is also showing a colder 1st week of December Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. Agree Have to see if the pac cooperates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: hit 32 though like JFK did but here's a delicate question, can it be considered a freezing day if the low is above 32.0? Because 0 C (actual freezing) is 32.0 F, not 32.2 or 32.4 or anything in between? I think thats “first freeze” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. We need few more corrections stronger with the Aleutians ridge to get the gradient south of us. But today is an improvement over yesterday on the GEFS. Our better La Niña winters for snowfall usually have more of a poleward extension of the Aleutians ridge. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Light snow on the Euro for Sunday. Backside energy was a tad late for a bigger storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Total snowfall on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Eps has some members near our area for Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Anyone seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Total snowfall on the Euro savor that map before it's gone 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: savor that map before it's gone Everyone is talking about it even SNE Hopping on ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo showing up on the eps mid to long range. This run is alot colder than it showed 24 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is talking about it even SNE Hopping on ? of course they're talking about it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course they're talking about it How about the mid Atlantic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button The day 10 EPS looks more like a -WPO based near the Aleutians than a -EPO. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button You are ridiculous It has support from other models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Would not be surprised to see some teens tonight in the coldest locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, lee59 said: Would not be surprised to see some teens tonight in the coldest locations. yeah I'm dropping quickly here down ot 37 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 36 here as of 4PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN. Arctic cold usually means suppression depression. I’ll take slightly below normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 37 here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Icon on board for Sunday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon on board for Sunday A small accumulation also shows up on the National Blend of Models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: You are ridiculous It has support from other models As Bluewave pointed out, you know what you are looking at is not -EPO right? A ridge in the Aleutians is -WPO. A ridge over Alaska and the GOA would be -EPO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As Bluewave pointed out, you know what you are looking at is not -EPO right? A ridge in the Aleutians is -WPO. A ridge over Alaska and the GOA would be -EPO It's a negative epo Dude just stop 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 The coldest air of the season so far covers the region. Tomorrow will be another fair but cold day. Thanksgiving Day will witness the return of a milder air mass, but its duration will be short-lived. Another strong cold front will move across the region Thursday night. In its wake, an unseasonably cold weekend will follow. There is a small chance that a weak system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region on Sunday. First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities: Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9 Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16 Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16 New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16 Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9 Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16 The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 is on course to average below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The recent guidance has been correcting colder in response to this blocking. The Arctic Oscillation fell below -1.000 on November 23. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° The duration of the blocking remains uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies favor a return of warmer air at some point during the first week of December. Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 23 4 pm is 16.28". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +8.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.410 today. On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.023 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.305 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (1.6° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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