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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM loves the comma head for Legro. Even into NE MA. 

Monday too. :weenie:

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k goes a little wild in spots

I feel like the 3km makes a little more sense if you are purely taking the clown maps. I'm not sure I'm buying 3-4 at PWM just yet.

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The regular NAM is terrible for NH.

Somebody is going to get skunked between the light stuff/upslope and the coastal taking over. Probably in the LCI/IZG to AUG corridor.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Monday too. :weenie:

I feel like the 3km makes a little more sense if you are purely taking the clown maps. I'm not sure I'm buying 3-4 at PWM just yet.

Somebody is going to get skunked between the light stuff/upslope and the coastal taking over. Probably in the LCI/IZG to AUG corridor.

Looks like from Jayhawk to MBY.

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Wondering if black ice/ flashing later this evening... Lot of day after commuters.

The near/backside cyclonic escape environment is likely to feature a rather abrupt acceleration of wind imparting crashing thickness via very efficient CAA. NAM has T1 going from ~ 6C to 0C between 00z and 2am with weak windex appeal there.

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23 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I just checked the webcam at Mohawk Mountain in NW Connecticut.  This is between 1,000' and 1,600'. Snowmaking snow on the ground,  but raining and 39F

https://www.mohawkmtn.com/the-mountain/webcam/

I get one more day to enjoy this before heading back south; hoping for some flurries to mix in later.

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47 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I get one more day to enjoy this before heading back south; hoping for some flurries to mix in later.

I'm not sure we're you are located,  or elevation.  If you want to see flakes,  the best bet would probably be Soapstone Mountain off route 190. You can drive to the top and it's 1 000'

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cold/dry then warm/wet type of winter setting up for SoP crew. 

It has that feeling doesn't it? Couldn't even squeeze out a single legit snowflake yesterday. This is probably the latest in my short 7 years up here to at least see some snowflakes, let alone accumulation. Half the time I have seen them before the end of October...The way I look at it, the less we see, the more memorable they will become as the season barrels on.

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46 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It can get a bit repetitive watching our broadcasts, especially on the weekend, for four straight hours.

I keep seeing the Boston water temp staring me in the face every half hour. 52F.

A good reminder that it's going to be really difficult to get any snow.

Not a bad a 'base-line expectation modulator' - haha...  seriously though, wind direction wind direction wind direction.

It's more about that really than the scalar oceanic SSTs.   Not that you don't know this - just sayn'

Take this beast ...  turned out to be an absolutely juggernaut storm right down to Logan Airport, and mooshed the rain/snow line down to almost the Born Bridge over 51 F SSTs out there in the Harbor and surrounding the Bay... on December 6, 2003.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031207.html

I remember that event's vitals, vividly - those cartoon-like images provided in that link above ( note "previous" and "next" day buttons, top left and right of the interfacing...), can take the viewer through days, but it does show the crucial details too well... 

Those were being discussed in the background Met communities, contention, over how that high pressure up there was so ideally situated and would effect/affect matters.  It was a nasty cold anomaly source, real blue knuckle numbing -10 F DP at Fryeburgh Maine type stuff, and it was nosing exactly, perfectly to absolutely stop any warm intrusion of marine air.   Can it be made more clear than that? hahaha.  Warm ocean or not, there was zero way the coastal boundary, the perfunctory formation in those sort of situations, could have been physically allowed to move inland. And ...that turned out to be the right call. 

I lived in Winchester Mass at the time, a quaint upscale town tucked NW of Boston, immediately astride I-93.  Basically the the last depot along Belmont, Arlington, Winchester vestige-axis of early last century money, before Woburn sketchiness kicks in.  Although Woburn lapse over Mall money ..so.  Anyway, Winchester's located maybe ..10 mi from the Revere/Lynn beaches.  We wind shattered 20" of 20::1, with white out conditions.. I don't know if we had a blizzard warn - I wanna say they upgraded in the throws of it but don't quote. I remember visually limited to not more than about a 16th/ mi for several hrs though. 

It was neat storm to geek out over, too. Harvey Leonard was doing cut -ins about the progress of the rain-snow line as it was collapsing SE. We were 19 F in Winchester when Logan plummeted from 41 to 32, as the wind shifted from ENE gusting to 50+, to NNE, across like 4 minutes.  They flash transitioned to near white out, never went back, mid way through the event. And one could see the unusually well-defined transition line on radar.  Places were locking water and slush on power lines in a 40 --> 24 F, 10 min transition as the CF passed through over SE zones...It was awesome to see.        

That high pressure up there was just that quintessentially placed, it utterly smashed any typical oceanic conventions.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a bad a 'base-line expectation modulator' - haha...  seriously though, wind direction wind direction wind direction.

It's more about that really than the scalar oceanic SSTs.   Not that you don't know this - just sayn'

Take this beast ...  turned out to be an absolutely juggernaut storm right down to Logan Airport, and mooshed the rain/snow line down to almost the Born Bridge over 51 F SSTs out there in the Harbor and surrounding the Bay... on December 6, 2003.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031207.html

I remember that event's vitals, vividly - those cartoon-like images provided in that link above ( note "previous" and "next" day buttons, top left and right of the interfacing...), can take the viewer through days, but it does show the crucial details too well... 

Those were being discussed in the background Met communities, contention, over how that high pressure up there was so ideally situated and would effect/affect matters.  It was a nasty cold anomaly source, real blue knuckle numbing -10 F DP at Fryeburgh Maine type stuff, and it was nosing exactly, perfectly to absolutely stop any warm intrusion of marine air.   Can it be made more clear than that? hahaha.  Warm ocean or not, there was zero way the coastal boundary, the perfunctory formation in those sort of situations, could have been physically allowed to move inland. And ...that turned out to be the right call. 

I lived in Winchester Mass at the time, a quaint upscale town tucked NW of Boston, immediately astride I-93.  Basically the the last depot along Belmont, Arlington, Winchester vestige-axis of early last century money, before Woburn sketchiness kicks in.  Although Woburn lapse over Mall money ..so.  Anyway, Winchester's located maybe ..10 mi from the Revere/Lynn beaches.  We wind shattered 20" of 20::1, with white out conditions.. I don't know if we had a blizzard warn - I wanna say they upgraded in the throws of it but don't quote. I remember visually limited to not more than about a 16th/ mi for several hrs though. 

It was neat storm to geek out over, too. Harvey Leonard was doing cut -ins about the progress of the rain-snow line as it was collapsing SE. We were 19 F in Winchester when Logan plummeted from 41 to 32, as the wind shifted from ENE gusting to 50+, to NNE, across like 4 minutes.  They flash transitioned to near white out, never went back, mid way through the event. And one could see the unusually well-defined transition line on radar.  Places were locking water and slush on power lines in a 40 --> 24 F, 10 min transition as the CF passed through over SE zones...It was awesome to see.        

That high pressure up there was just that quintessentially placed, it utterly smashed any typical oceanic conventions.

I would estimate something like 80% of events are rain with these ocean temps. East winds more often than not on a synoptic event here. Also- it ends up often being a 'flash' scenario. Those types of events where you are warm to start and then cold west winds come in. Usually works for the interior sometimes, but we don't cool as fast, plus the west winds dry us out. If you can get a dynamic enough storm with north winds, it'll snow anywhere. But that's not easy. Can be fun early season coastal fronts though. But this time of the year, Scott and I are usually on the wrong side of them.

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4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I continue to not be overly impressed by the look moving forward. Looks hostile, and we know how that usually goes 

Me neither. I just don’t see anything special. Yea, it will snow…of course, but see sawing between one favorable tele to the other is always touchy. I like eastern NewEng though especially towards coastal Maine. Will-Ray-Jeff zone will have a great season imwo. 

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4 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

It has that feeling doesn't it? Couldn't even squeeze out a single legit snowflake yesterday. This is probably the latest in my short 7 years up here to at least see some snowflakes, let alone accumulation. Half the time I have seen them before the end of October...The way I look at it, the less we see, the more memorable they will become as the season barrels on.

We actually had flakes for a few min. My son went bonkers and frantically asked Mommy where his hat and gloves were yelling, “winter is here.”  By the time he put them on, it was gone…and he was bummed. I told him it will come on again but “bigger”…I pray I didn’t lie to the little weenie.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We actually had flakes for a few min. My son went bonkers and frantically asked Mommy where his hat and gloves were yelling, “winter is here.”  By the time he put them on, it was gone…and he was bummed. I told him it will come on again but “bigger”…I pray I didn’t lie to the little weenie.

I was outside with my 3 year old swinging while the wind and rain/possible mangled snowflakes were falling. Nothing that I could legitimately say was snow....didn't count in my book, lol. We are worlds away from eachother, the hills to my NW seem to swallow up the moisture coming from the direction.

My 8 year old is obsessed, pulls up the forecast even before I do...He was tracking hurricanes well out into the Atlantic this year, proud Dad, lol......

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We actually had flakes for a few min. My son went bonkers and frantically asked Mommy where his hat and gloves were yelling, “winter is here.”  By the time he put them on, it was gone…and he was bummed. I told him it will come on again but “bigger”…I pray I didn’t lie to the little weenie.

That's exactly what I did yesterday when the rain turned to snow.

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35 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I was outside with my 3 year old swinging while the wind and rain/possible mangled snowflakes were falling. Nothing that I could legitimately say was snow....didn't count in my book, lol. We are worlds away from eachother, the hills to my NW seem to swallow up the moisture coming from the direction.

My 8 year old is obsessed, pulls up the forecast even before I do...He was tracking hurricanes well out into the Atlantic this year, proud Dad, lol......

It’s pretty cool how it happens too. It wasn’t taught. The kid wants to watch tornado’s on youtube and wants me to pull up any radar so he can see “red and yellow thunderstorms.” Lol. 
 

The flakes yesterday weren’t pure though. They looked mangled but enough to get him excited as the deck lights showcased them enough. I don’t think we are that different. You definitely radiate better there though.

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