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October 2021


Stormlover74
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Some locations could reach the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 70°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 69.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.6°

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue through much or all of the week.

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The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(62/74), or +4.

GFS is dry again for the next 10.      EURO wet again starting Saturday.

All travelling 5 day periods have AN T's through the 20th., for all but the PacNW.

Reached 77! here yesterday.

Today: 67-71, cloudy, e. wind, drizzle?

61*(96%RH) here at 6am, overcast, street wet.    62* at 9am.       66* at Noon.       68* at 12:30pm, some breaks in the clouds.       69* at 1pm.       68* at 2pm.        66* at 4pm.

 

 

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5 hours ago, mjr said:

Backdoor cold fronts suck. They can happen at any time of the year. I believe that the geography of LI Sound helps funnel NE winds into NYC and propels some of these fronts through when one might expect them to remain to the east of us. Also, I feel that this makes it more difficult for them to return through NYC as a warm front. I have been frustrated at forecasts predicting sunny 80 degree temps only to spend the day in the 50s while central NJ gets up to 80.

I have no evidence to back this up but it seems to me that these fronts frequently occur in situations that feature an upper level eastern ridge. Upper level eastern ridges can translate to surface highs over Eastern Canada which send down backdoor fronts.

I am also pretty pessimistic about EWR reaching 70 Tuesday unless we experience unexpected afternoon breaks of sun.

Thats right, I remember these can happen in the middle of summer too.  

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today was one of the easterly flow days that I mentioned yesterday when the warm minimums drive the departure. The high at JFK was +4 and the low so far of 67° is +13°. So the low could fall a few more degrees before midnight and still be close to +10°.
 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
433 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2021

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 4 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         73    940 AM  84    1967  69      4       69       
  MINIMUM         67    214 AM  39    1996  54     13       47       
  AVERAGE         70                        62      8       58     

I am glad that this isn't a week long thing, looks like we're back to sunny and dry weather Wednesday thru Friday with temps approaching 80 again

 

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This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking.

94CC4DE0-C7C8-45CB-9973-8F0981FEDF6D.png.bcfd3f8e090868b7ba631a2636d6cea9.png

 

BDD5FEEE-72D4-42BC-9072-12368B490664.thumb.png.ea5ab7450e2606dcda1f7ae103ead4a7.png

0A35BA46-AE52-423D-8B44-20F3EB14965B.thumb.png.c4404bddbffd125bc033d2cd3766797c.png

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit?  Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking.

94CC4DE0-C7C8-45CB-9973-8F0981FEDF6D.png.bcfd3f8e090868b7ba631a2636d6cea9.png

 

BDD5FEEE-72D4-42BC-9072-12368B490664.thumb.png.ea5ab7450e2606dcda1f7ae103ead4a7.png

0A35BA46-AE52-423D-8B44-20F3EB14965B.thumb.png.c4404bddbffd125bc033d2cd3766797c.png

 

A strong -PDO for sure, it’s been at least 10 years since we’ve seen one. There aren’t too many good analogs for this upcoming winter….2nd year “Central Pacific”/central-based La Niña, -QBO, rapidly rising solar, strong -PDO, -PMM

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit?  Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking.

94CC4DE0-C7C8-45CB-9973-8F0981FEDF6D.png.bcfd3f8e090868b7ba631a2636d6cea9.png

 

BDD5FEEE-72D4-42BC-9072-12368B490664.thumb.png.ea5ab7450e2606dcda1f7ae103ead4a7.png

0A35BA46-AE52-423D-8B44-20F3EB14965B.thumb.png.c4404bddbffd125bc033d2cd3766797c.png

 

We have also gone -PMM

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking.

94CC4DE0-C7C8-45CB-9973-8F0981FEDF6D.png.bcfd3f8e090868b7ba631a2636d6cea9.png

 

BDD5FEEE-72D4-42BC-9072-12368B490664.thumb.png.ea5ab7450e2606dcda1f7ae103ead4a7.png

0A35BA46-AE52-423D-8B44-20F3EB14965B.thumb.png.c4404bddbffd125bc033d2cd3766797c.png

 

 

There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter.  I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter.  2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter 

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28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter.  I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter.  2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter 

76-77 had straight cold from October through February, however February moderated and March was warm

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11 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

The one thing too is we have been incredibly wet for a long period of time now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we flipped to a much drier pattern for winter. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. 

 That is probably true 30 plus years ago But in our new sub tropical climate as some posters here have pointed out  Warmer and wetter seems more likely.  We could have a dry month or even a dry year In certain patterns but that's probably more the exception than the rule going forward

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This fall is featuring the strongest -PDO pattern in years. It results in a warmer than average +EPO/-PNA pattern with a pumped up SE Ridge. Main question for the winter is will we get enough blocking to tame this pattern a bit? Second winters after extreme blocking like last year usually had follow up blocking.

94CC4DE0-C7C8-45CB-9973-8F0981FEDF6D.png.bcfd3f8e090868b7ba631a2636d6cea9.png

 

BDD5FEEE-72D4-42BC-9072-12368B490664.thumb.png.ea5ab7450e2606dcda1f7ae103ead4a7.png

0A35BA46-AE52-423D-8B44-20F3EB14965B.thumb.png.c4404bddbffd125bc033d2cd3766797c.png

 

The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together.

I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest.

 

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49 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

76-77 had straight cold from October through February, however February moderated and March was warm

it was cold from the end of August 1976 to mid Feb...the overall pattern from Nov 1995-Nov 1996 was a trof in the east...that ended mid December 1996...

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together.

I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest.

 

Again and I say this before every La Nina winter,if there is blocking in the Atlantic it could be a decent winter. If there is no blocking expect a warm winter.Last year there was blocking, the pacific was horrible but we were above average snow.. La NIna winters are also front loaded so a cold December is usually the case

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1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

Again and I say this before every La Nina winter,if there is blocking in the Atlantic it could be a decent winter. If there is no blocking expect a warm winter.Last year there was blocking, the pacific was horrible but we were above average snow.. La NIna winters are also front loaded so a cold December is usually the case

Yup but even with that blocking we had a lot of mixing and changeovers here it was more of an inland winter, I would say it was a B winter, not in one of the higher categories.  There have been La Nina winters in those higher categories (1995-96 and 2010-11 are prime examples) but those not only have exceptional blocking, they are also La Ninas that come after El Ninos and retain some of the aftereffects of the previous winter's El Nino, and give us the best of both worlds (cold and snow.)

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The La Nina and PDO have finally bound together.

I actually thought this year would be a neutral cold winter, so either way I wasn't expecting much snow since neutrals after La Nina tend to be among our least snowiest.

 

At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent.

Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures  7 years

20-21

17-18

16-17

15-16

12-13

05-06

04-05

Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years

14-15

13-14

10-11

09-10

03-04

02-03

Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years

19-20

18-19

11-12

07-08

06-07

Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year

08-09

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent.

Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures  7 years

20-21

17-18

16-17

15-16

12-13

05-06

04-05

Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years

14-15

13-14

10-11

09-10

03-04

02-03

Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years

19-20

18-19

11-12

07-08

06-07

Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year

08-09

But something I find interesting is that it's pretty rare to have near normal snowfall.  It's usually way above or way below..... even slightly above normal snowfall is rare (like the 30-39 inch range).....if it's going to be above normal snowfall it's usually 40 + inches.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

At least for our area, there really isn’t much correlation between ENSO and snowfall. Snowfall amounts come down to how much blocking we get. Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures has been the most common winter combination in our area since 2002-2003. That was the year the record snowfall and -AO/-NAO blocking patterns become more frequent.

Above normal snowfall and above normal temperatures  7 years

20-21

17-18

16-17

15-16

12-13

05-06

04-05

Above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures 6 years

14-15

13-14

10-11

09-10

03-04

02-03

Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures 5 years

19-20

18-19

11-12

07-08

06-07

Near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall 1 year

08-09

I see no more below normal snowfall and below normal temp combos.....

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I see no more below normal snowfall and below normal temp combos.....

 

The Euro seasonal just came out today. It’s really hitting the Aleutians Ridge very hard. So if that is correct, then we will need blocking to have a shot at above normal snowfall. While we had a strong SE Ridge in 16-17 and 17-18, blocking intervals gave us above normal snowfall to go with the above normal temperatures.

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal just came out today. It’s really hitting the Aleutians Ridge very hard. So if that is correct, then we will need blocking to have a shot at above normal snowfall. While we had a strong SE Ridge in 16-17 and 17-18, blocking intervals gave us above normal snowfall to go with the above normal temperatures.

It’s definitely not what winter weather lovers would like to see.

image.jpeg.afbad022b16c6b352a9a7076a88e8116.jpeg

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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s definitely not what winter weather lovers would like to see.

image.jpeg.afbad022b16c6b352a9a7076a88e8116.jpeg

Looks like last year. Seasonals are not very accuarate.I mean it could turn out that way but predicting weather a month or 2 or 3 months in advace is basically a toss up. I remember saying this around this time last year when we were all on suicide watch because of the monthly's. 

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