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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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I think today will be Sam's last shot at making becoming a CAT 5. It is just below that now. After today, it will start to accelerate north, then NE/NNE in to cooler waters.

 

11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1
Location: 28.4°N 61.8°W
Moving: N at 21 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

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On 9/26/2021 at 3:58 PM, OSUmetstud said:

It might be a 5 now. But it was stronger a few hours before the ERC started. Maybe they'll find it on the next pass. 

FWIW, a TC expert whom I trust told me that the available information *does* suggest cat 5 intensity, and that an upgrade in post-storm analysis is likely.  So you were correct, and I was wrong.  Just thought I owed it to you to share that information.

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1 hour ago, jpeters3 said:

FWIW, a TC expert whom I trust told me that the available information *does* suggest cat 5 intensity, and that an upgrade in post-storm analysis is likely.  So you were correct, and I was wrong.  Just thought I owed it to you to share that information.

No matter what happens, you should know your contributions are appreciated. I’m sure I’m not the only one that feels this way. 

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Sams ACE is up to 44.3, if it hits 51 it would put it into the top 10 all time of ACE in the Atlantic. 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

Storm Year Peak classification ACE Duration
Hurricane Ivan 2004
Category 5 hurricane
70.4 23 days
Hurricane Irma 2017
Category 5 hurricane
64.9 13 days
Hurricane Isabel 2003
Category 5 hurricane
63.3 14 days
Hurricane Donna 1960
Category 4 hurricane
57.6 16 days
Hurricane Carrie 1957
Category 4 hurricane
55.8 21 days
Hurricane Inez 1966
Category 4 hurricane
54.6 21 days
Hurricane Luis 1995
Category 4 hurricane
53.5 16 days
Hurricane Allen 1980
Category 5 hurricane
52.3 12 days
Hurricane Esther 1961
Category 5 hurricane
52.2 18 days
Hurricane Matthew 2016
Category 5 hurricane
50.9 12 days
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Sam has maintained a ridiculous structure for a combination of latitude and Larry's cool wake. There is a cool eddy just NW of Sam's core that dips below 26°C, a region that Larry churned up a few weeks ago. Marginal OHC between 26-27°C exist further down the forecast track as baroclinic enhancement begins however. That should allow Sam to remain a strong hurricane for several more days, even though its time as a Category 4 may only linger a little further into Saturday afternoon. That puts Sam at over 4.25 days at that category since the 4AM AST package on Tuesday morning.

This thing still looks gorgeous on visible with a lot of symmetry and could make it well into Sunday as a major hurricane.
47676ebafb979d0f1d22a800dbb17257.gif

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Sam has maintained a ridiculous structure for a combination of latitude and Larry's cool wake. There is a cool eddy just NW of Sam's core that dips below 26°C, a region that Larry churned up a few weeks ago. Marginal OHC between 26-27°C exist further down the forecast track as baroclinic enhancement begins however. That should allow Sam to remain a strong hurricane for several more days, even though its time as a Category 4 may only linger a little further into Saturday afternoon. That puts Sam at over 4.25 days at that category since the 4AM AST package on Tuesday morning.

This thing still looks gorgeous on visible with a lot of symmetry and could make it well into Sunday as a major hurricane.
47676ebafb979d0f1d22a800dbb17257.gif

One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery 

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery 

Eye is becoming obscured now. Not a real surprise.

 

image.thumb.png.f330e6c907509c3f474f88b89aae3ba8.png

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