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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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28 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

More favorable NYC… northern stream zipping right now doesn’t want to dip too far S 

Only way to possibly slow the screaming PJ is with a SSWE (good luck with that), a robust -AO and/or a West based -NAO. Not sure a +PNA helps much until maybe later in the winter (Feb/Mar). -PDO is going to hurt us significantly. And the EPO would probably deliver a PJ dip in the Plains with a subsequent SER amped up so unless axis is perfectly aligned, that likely isn't going to help much either.

With the Nina now forecast to go develop steadily into moderate levels and last thru March, we are looking at a tough stretch.

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5 hours ago, JTA66 said:

The first virga of the season is always special, especially when it falls and evaporates around the holidays.

Sun starting to peek out, 44F.

The below was intriguing from overnight.  I expect it may have been virga though since the dews had dropped into the low 20s yesterday and overnight here.

I did make it up to 47 after a low of 33.  It's currently clouded up and 37 with dp 31.

radar-11282021.png

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

So close! Just flip on those colors on the bottom map and we in bidness.

33F

Yes sir. Those blues and oranges are pretty much all in the opposite spots we would want to see them.  GEPS isn't too far off. Maybe we can sneak something out around Dec 6-8 as the pattern flipper to that crud rolls thru, but more than likely and based on Nina climo would favor N and W. 

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39 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS with something for the 6th

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png

Imo thats the one to keep an eye on for something. Nina climo says far N and W event or a white to wet changeover type event. It is after this the pattern looks to go to crud. GGEM op doesn't agree with its own ensembles on the system it shows a few days later. And those of us around a while know that in a fast PJ nina regime that LR storm tracking usually doesn't work. Overall longwave pattern and tellies can be looked at farther out but the smaller synoptic events tend to jump up and surprise under 100 hrs. 

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Well with Met winter set to begin tomorrow I'm guessing 50-75% of normal snowfall for 95 and 75%-100% of normal snowfall for the NW burbs. I just don't like the way things look heading into december. Looks like a typical nina with a screaming PJ and +NAO/AO. I think most events will be nickel and dime or front end 1-3" over to rain. March is such a crap shoot though so who knows maybe we go gangbusters again like 2018. But DJF is looking rough right now imo

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I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change

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Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. 

In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in.

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34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. 

In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in.

Too early to cancel winter but the cold and snow forecasts for December  don't look good right now but that can change.

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