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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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59 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals..

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp

 

He's getting like JB w/hype forecast for cash. You can't predict winter forecast. If you get it right it's luck and nothing more. Glenn said it correct, too many variables. I'm glad he quit doing it...

ween.jpg

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On 11/10/2021 at 2:46 PM, The Iceman said:

Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. 

There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter.  With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. 

Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. 

With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging.

All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event.

Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes  Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see.

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13 hours ago, RedSky said:

DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals..

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp

 

So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't.

I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did?

Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already.

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't.

I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did?

Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already.

I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 

 

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall.

Screenshot_20211113-130019_copy_1196x1232_copy_601x618.png.3d0ab36a2b4b4734f0dbe64068689fe1.png

All I know is that as waves started moving over me, I have been virga'd.  Not a drop out of any of it although it has been breezy.

So far my low has been 41 this morning and it's currently churning in the sky and 57 with dp 48.  Looks like most of the action is north and east.

radar19-11132021.png

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First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

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11 minutes ago, yak said:

First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

I figured someone from the W or N saw some flakes. Although super wet, it's still flakes. None here but still windy w/some lighter rains...

42F 

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14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Wow.  Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. :huh:  Maybe it broke up over the hills or something.  Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty.

Weakened before it got here as well, still rained for a while. Sun's been out off and on for the last 15 minutes. Gonna blow some wet leaves, lol.

1113211440_HDR_copy_608x734.jpg.54685184c3eb65af3723118044c40a2b.jpg

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Back edge has blasted through and sun is out with clearing and blue sky overhead and to the west.  Even with a couple minutes of the yellow over me at the end (image of closest approach below), I still got hardly anything.  Currently 0.07".

Temp down to 42 and dp 39.  Mt. Holly just lofted a Wind Advisory.

radar32-11132021.png

20211113-nws-windadv-phi-severethunderstormwarning-freezewarning-windadv-severethunderstormwatch-phiarea.PNG

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45 minutes ago, yak said:

First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39.  So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit.  I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co.  Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter…

Cat paw!

And now it’s a gorgeous afternoon, temp down to 41F. Thought I heard some IP hitting the car but didn’t see anything “bounce”. I think it was just the wind making the rain drops hit extra hard.

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Tonight

 

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 
Currently not frozen 
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55 minutes ago, RedSky said:
 
 
 

Tonight

 

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 
Currently not frozen 

Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night...

39F

al.jpg

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33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night...

39F

al.jpg

Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow.

 

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow.

 

Anyone under 75 who thinks this should start searching for a senior living community w/mental care...or close family members should tell them "it's about that time".

37F North Wales and 35F Quakertown at 12:40am. Any precip is 50-100 miles off shore and bone dry to the W.... 

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On 11/13/2021 at 1:13 PM, RedSky said:

I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 

 

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 

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