Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks like the back edge is past me now so I ended up with 0.39" from that today. There's a clipper that might blow through here over the weekend so will see what that does. Currently overcast, misty, and 59 with dp the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Got 0.40" here. Leaves everywhere, lol. Currently pretty sunny and 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Sun out and temp creeping up. Now at 62 here with dp 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, RedSky said: DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp He's getting like JB w/hype forecast for cash. You can't predict winter forecast. If you get it right it's luck and nothing more. Glenn said it correct, too many variables. I'm glad he quit doing it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/10/2021 at 2:46 PM, The Iceman said: Agree with the quick start, unfortunately December events are typically borderline in these parts so relying on them is a tricky affair. I think a best case scenario for this winter is a 2010-2011 redux. Hot and heavy early on followed by blowtorch city with a possible shot or 2 at the end. There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter. With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging. All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event. Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 hours ago, RedSky said: DT winter outlook for the crazed snow geese freaks. Stock up on hot chocolate and thermals.. https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AHiE1ogY_ofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!27987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!24503&o=OneUp So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't. I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did? Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: So to summarize, DT thinks it will be a cold and snowy winter...unless it isn't. I don't mean to pick on DT, he clearly put the work in. But as others have been saying, do previous analogs/teleconnections have as much value as they once did? Got down to 41F overnight, up to 52F already. I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: This could be interesting. Just had some pretty strong winds for a couple of minutes, with a leaf squall. All I know is that as waves started moving over me, I have been virga'd. Not a drop out of any of it although it has been breezy. So far my low has been 41 this morning and it's currently churning in the sky and 57 with dp 48. Looks like most of the action is north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Today has been much more windy than yesterday w/the line of "yellows" approaching W-->E and temps dropping... 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Gust front is coming through here at the moment and am getting a bit of a leaf-zard. Temp starting to drop quickly and down to 53 with dp 46. Still nothing in the bucket yet but there's a narrow line headed this way that might give me something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Down to 45F with wind whipped rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Finally getting a little rain and so far have 0.02" in the bucket. Temp has plummeted to 46 with dp 44. Yellow band hasn't come through yet but getting real close now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, yak said: First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… I figured someone from the W or N saw some flakes. Although super wet, it's still flakes. None here but still windy w/some lighter rains... 42F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Wow. Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. Maybe it broke up over the hills or something. Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Wow. Looks like the yellow band just dissolved away as it approached NW Philly. Maybe it broke up over the hills or something. Temp is now down to 43 with dp 40 and have 0.06" from it so far. Winds are still gusty. Weakened before it got here as well, still rained for a while. Sun's been out off and on for the last 15 minutes. Gonna blow some wet leaves, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Skies really brightened up and wouldn't be surprised if the sun pop out within the the hour w/the back edge of the precip approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sun's out in full force. Still breezy and Fall-like brisk... 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Back edge has blasted through and sun is out with clearing and blue sky overhead and to the west. Even with a couple minutes of the yellow over me at the end (image of closest approach below), I still got hardly anything. Currently 0.07". Temp down to 42 and dp 39. Mt. Holly just lofted a Wind Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, yak said: First very, very mushy snowflakes falling on my car windshield in Berks County a few minutes ago with the temp at 39. So mushy they’re not noticeable until they hit. I see it is actually visibly snowing in parts of Schuylkill Co. Hoping that wasn’t the highlight of this winter… Cat paw! And now it’s a gorgeous afternoon, temp down to 41F. Thought I heard some IP hitting the car but didn’t see anything “bounce”. I think it was just the wind making the rain drops hit extra hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 That cold front meant some business and I bottomed out at 32 for a few hours after 3 am and am now up to 37, with frost, a dp of 31, and variable skies with lots of whispy cirrus obscuring the sun most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Might see our 1st flakes of the season tonight and again before dawn tomorrow - especially in the higher spots in Western Chester County.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 ^ radar had snow imby but I didn't look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Tonight A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Currently not frozen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, RedSky said: Tonight A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Currently not frozen Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night... 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Where would this alleged moisture to produce snow come from? I'm done with moisture (9:50pm) and a pretty sharp cutoff/no precip west then probably partly cloudy the rest of night... 39F Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Tell you what at daybreak it's going to look like it snowed here the grass is soaked now. Most people will look outside and say hey we had snow. Anyone under 75 who thinks this should start searching for a senior living community w/mental care...or close family members should tell them "it's about that time". 37F North Wales and 35F Quakertown at 12:40am. Any precip is 50-100 miles off shore and bone dry to the W.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 1:13 PM, RedSky said: I got a chuckle at him saying it will be among the coldest, snowiest of 20 of the last 30 winters. That covers a lot of bases. If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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