The Iceman Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 We did see our 1st snow flakes of the year overnight and this morning here in NW Chesco. Now while November is certainly not a snowy month - we average only 1.2" of snow. We have had some significant (+6") storms during the month. Of note just 3 years ago on November 15 into the 16th we picked up 7.3" of snow - our top 5 snowstorms in November were: November 15, 1906 (9.5") November 6, 1953 (8.6") November 15-16, 2018 (7.3") November 26, 1938 (7.0") November 4, 1910 (6.6") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 I did make it up to 48 today vs yesterday's high of 46. Lots of CAA and wind going on today and with a low of 36 this morning, and times of sun and clouds, am currently mostly cloudy with breaks in the cloud deck here and there, and 46, with dp 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Connors Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 first snow of the season here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 There is a yellow jacket outside the door what in the world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: There is a yellow jacket outside the door what in the world They must know that you are our resident entomologist, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: They must know that you are our resident entomologist, haha. It is moving slow I would say it needs a heavier jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 In other news that rare 3am lunar eclipse on the morning of the 19th looks to be obscured by the frontal passage, c'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Current temp down to 30 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Current temp is 28 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Made it up to 48 yesterday after a low of 39, and although I had the same low this morning of 39, I'm already up to 60 at post time, so the warming trend is in place. Currently a new deck of clouds have moved in so it is mostly cloudy and 60, with dp up to 49, after having dps in the low-mid 30s the past bunch of days. Had to pull out the humidifiers today since the humidity in here had dropped down to the upper 20%s (not good). Finally got it back up to a reasonable 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sun never made an appearance today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sun never made an appearance today Tomorrow will make up for it…..at least temp wise.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Weather World 30 day outlook is 2/3 days below normal and they said their coldest in two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 FWIW Channel 6 had thier winter outook last night. Average year for snow. Some mild stretches followed by a cold shot or two. Isn't it pretty much the same each year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 66F per my wx station, 70F per Ambient. Either way, widows are open and am getting a nice breeze through the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 beautiful day here, currently 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible. Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 After a low of 43 this morning, it's currently up to 69 with mostly blue sky. Saw the setting full moon through the window this morning knowing I won't be able to see it tonight with the incoming tempest. ETA - when I was out running errands earlier this morning, I took note that 1/2 of the trees are fully in leaf, although most of those have their fall colors. I know around here, the city would do their 2nd leaf removals (from the streets) around the first week of December and I definitely see why. It's possible that however gusty this incoming cold front gets, it might knock another batch of leaves down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Current temp is 73 here. Warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible. Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly Just saw a little garter snake slither across the walkway. Guess he came out to sun himself. 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 My pet dragonfly I named him Drachen. Winter's coming however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: My pet dragonfly I named him Drachen. Winter's coming however. He's cool, lol. Wish him well and Godspeed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 12:49 PM, RedSky said: In other news that rare 3am lunar eclipse on the morning of the 19th looks to be obscured by the frontal passage, c'est la vie It could be visible after all. I might be asleep though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: It could be visible after all. I might be asleep though. A lucky break odds look better than 50/50 it will be visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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