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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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28 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The mild break in December keeps getting pushed back in the guidance. November did the same. Not saying it doesn't get here but it may be short lived it wants to be cold for whatever the reasons.

 

GFS looks pretty mild overall. at least 3 days in the upper 50's low 60's from the 06th - 12th. Lots of rain.

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On 11/30/2021 at 8:18 PM, ChescoWx said:

I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change

where did you see that?

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Cecily Tynan posted a stat last night on the news for the PHL Airport that winters have warmed almost 5 degrees in the last 50 years (see below) image.thumb.png.00bbef00b4fc7f5ac6d0d4f833c2756e.png

So of course I had to go back and do the analysis for 120 years for Chester County. To remove any bias of any one reporting station I used an average of all 8 available NWS COOP sites (with no less than 4 and as many as 8 sites) to see if on average our winters (DJF) have really warmed by almost 5 degrees? The answer of course away from PHL is a clear NO for the Chester County philly burbs! In fact from 90 years ago the most recent decade winters were actually 0.5 degrees colder

image.png.6fa08bb06e31d6e1c2cec2c7c75fb647.png

 
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Went up to 57 here today after a low of 42.  Got a couple hundredths of an inch of rain late last night this morning totaling 006" for the 2 days.

I would say that the "traditional" met winter of DJF seems to have shifted to JFM, where we are getting "longer falls" but then "longer springs" on the back end, with AMJ being more "spring-like" due to more and more below-normal temps seemingly happening into June.  That leaves a JAS as "summer" and OND as "fall".

I guess technically the first day of winter (solstice) IS near the end of December so... :lol:

Currently 56 with changeable skies (clearing to the west), with dp 46.  Pretty nice out (I put the last of my outdoor decorations up).

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17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Went up to 57 here today after a low of 42.  Got a couple hundredths of an inch of rain late last night this morning totaling 006" for the 2 days.

I would say that the "traditional" met winter of DJF seems to have shifted to JFM, where we are getting "longer falls" but then "longer springs" on the back end, with AMJ being more "spring-like" due to more and more below-normal temps seemingly happening into June.  That leaves a JAS as "summer" and OND as "fall".

I guess technically the first day of winter (solstice) IS near the end of December so... :lol:

Currently 56 with changeable skies (clearing to the west), with dp 46.  Pretty nice out (I put the last of my outdoor decorations up).

Still some leaves on the tree and I'll probably rake/mow for the last time this weekend.I remember not that long ago I would have the lawnmower packed away by early/mid Nov. And Sept is still summer and probably the best time to visit the shore.....less people and cheaper rental rates. 

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