Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,185
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    AtlanticWx
    Newest Member
    AtlanticWx
    Joined

Met Fall 2021 Banter.


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How? :lol: 

Driving is tough somehow, ha.  We’ve had cars not put in park roll down multiple lots and end up in ditches this time of year too. You see all sorts of them during leaf peeping season.

A friend on social found another one today in the ditch so much it’s rear wheels were off the ground.

You will never ever see so many cars in ditches on dry empty roads as leaf peeping time.


C8ACE442-A526-4E4A-90C1-E68591F62F36.jpeg.9a895a1814e9d026c73dbcb8368c8452.jpeg58C23096-A7D7-449B-92CE-0E43085BF68D.jpeg.f378df18383eb647c9dd8d54936701e7.jpeg
 

Another in a ditch I passed a while back.  This one was looking at the red tree they are standing under and drove into a culvert.

F520C8C6-B0BF-41F9-B627-B9A6313C4F91.jpeg.cb51311c4d9c4dc33a87b52f3a365cfe.jpeg

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market is Somewhat interesting last couple weeks . It’s range bound but in a relatively bearish set up at least relative to the summer .
 

Still below 50 day M.A and if it breaks the 4330  trading level there is a bit of an air pocket to 4130 (SP 500) . 

A few lithium miners still interest me long term Most industry estimates predict lithium demand will increase by a factor of 10-12x by 2040. Independent analysis .  That is massive . Graphite is another one . (6-8x) 
 

A couple companies really dominate that (Lithium) market on the supply side and China has the majority share . Ganfeng lithium is a company that seems  undervalued and just a monster in that space. 
 

Many junior minors get publicity but are several years away from production and many things can go wrong on the way . The producers like Ganfeng, and other lithium miners (ticker OROCF) , even a up and coming producer like CXOXF Seems to have very nice tailwinds and trade at reasonable multiples  . Ganfeng just gobbled up the largest lithium deposit when their takeover bid of Bancora (In Mexico) was Just finalized . 

Inflation also seems to be getting out of hand , between speculators bidding up prices of commodities and supply shortages piggy backing that trend and increasing input costs for more and more companies 

The federal reserve look like clowns buying 80 billion a month in mortgage backed securities as house prices spike year over year up 15-20% . Bubble blowing blatantly because the debt levels are so high that high asset values are required to maintain solvency or household balance sheets and consumer spending . At some point , these imbalances are going to (“shockingly”) destabilize the system .

I often wonder , if I was Investing  in the 50’s, 70’s etc would I have scanned the landscape and been this concerned just because it’s sort of something one buys into , I think there is definitely a psychological aspect to either response . Most folks don’t what to imagine that this System at its core is terminally ill and requires near constant intervention continually , I Mean what are the benefits and worries if your nest egg and finances are in that position (stress) . I always hope we can just kick the can and maintain our position as the world reserve currency and the standard of living benefits that come from that.
 

I think most assume that because “it has been ...it will be “  The financial media Or the “Fed” is not going to warn you of its fragilities , When confidence is a requirement .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Market is Somewhat interesting last couple weeks . It’s range bound but in a relatively bearish set up at least relative to the summer .
 

Still below 50 day M.A and if it breaks the 4330  trading level there is a bit of an air pocket to 4130 (SP 500) . 

A few lithium miners still interest me long term Most industry estimates predict lithium demand will increase by a factor of 10-12x by 2040. Independent analysis .  That is massive . Graphite is another one . (6-8x) 
 

A couple companies really dominate that (Lithium) market on the supply side and China has the majority share . Ganfeng lithium is a company that seems  undervalued and just a monster in that space. 
 

Many junior minors get publicity but are several years away from production and many things can go wrong on the way . The producers like Ganfeng, and other lithium miners (ticker OROCF) , even a up and coming producer like CXOXF Seems to have very nice tailwinds and trade at reasonable multiples  . Ganfeng just gobbled up the largest lithium deposit when their takeover bid of Bancora (In Mexico) was Just finalized . 

Inflation also seems to be getting out of hand , between speculators bidding up prices of commodities and supply shortages piggy backing that trend and increasing input costs for more and more companies 

The federal reserve look like clowns buying 80 billion a month in mortgage backed securities as house prices spike year over year up 15-20% . Bubble blowing blatantly because the debt levels are so high that high asset values are required to maintain solvency or household balance sheets and consumer spending . At some point , these imbalances are going to (“shockingly”) destabilize the system .

I often wonder , if I was Investing  in the 50’s, 70’s etc would I have scanned the landscape and been this concerned just because it’s sort of something one buys into , I think there is definitely a psychological aspect to either response . Most folks don’t what to imagine that this System at its core is terminally ill and requires near constant intervention continually , I Mean what are the benefits and worries if your nest egg and finances are in that position (stress) . I always hope we can just kick the can and maintain our position as the world reserve currency and the standard of living benefits that come from that.

I'm loading up junior golds right now, they hit rock bottom and I think are gonna bounce back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'm loading up junior golds right now, they hit rock bottom and I think are gonna bounce back.

Miners made one heck of a move in the April - July period of 2020 .

I just don’t trust that sector. They have runs but always get knocked back . 
 

 I know gold is a solid store of value and it loves falling real interest rates . It does look like GDXJ has a solid entry point (one year chart shows it’s down considerably)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Miners made one heck of a move in the April - July period of 2020 .

I just don’t trust that sector. They have runs but always get knocked back . 
 

 I know gold is a solid store of value and it loves falling real interest rates . It does look like GDXJ has a solid entry point (one year chart shows it’s down considerably)

I'm short the bubbly unprofitable stuff trading at large multiples of revenue as rates may continue to run a bit more. A deflationary shock is probably coming at some point in the next year. Whether that is Fed precipitated or an exogenous event is anyone's guess. Inflationary pressures are starting to erode margins in the U.S., the sugar high from all the intervention is wearing off, and the economic situation in China is probably worse than we know, given the power issues and growing number of  RE developer defaults and yields on Chinese bonds generally. Meanwhile the markets continue to be priced for absolute perfection. Something's gotta give.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I'm short the bubbly unprofitable stuff trading at large multiples of revenue as rates may continue to run a bit more. A deflationary shock is probably coming at some point in the next year. Whether that is Fed precipitated or an exogenous event is anyone's guess. Inflationary pressures are starting to erode margins in the U.S., the sugar high from all the intervention is wearing off, and the economic situation in China is probably worse than we know, given the power issues and growing number of  RE developer defaults and yields on Chinese bonds generally. Meanwhile the markets continue to be priced for absolute perfection. Something's gotta give.

China’s property bust will also hit Australia as China’s demand for raw materials related to their absolutely massive building spree being curtailed . It hard to fathom how much and how fast China developed property And the debts from that . Legendary- historic . 

China credit market developments are also a risk In their broad real estate sector . 
 

CPI comes out today , it’s sort of a joke of a index in the sense that owners equivalent rent replaced house prices as the equivalent to measure the cost to live with a roof over your head . The graph of house prices and owners equivalent rent does not parallel each other or represent much except for a clever way for pencil pushers in Washington to devise a way to lower social security annual payment adjustments by artificially minimizing house price increases . This wizardry is everywhere these days as the window dressing to keep The Goldilocks economy  perception . Lipstick on a pig . 
 

The Fed knows they can’t really BEGIN to normalize monetary policy (for long) without this experiment in maintaining solvency thru high asset values  in a aging monetary system (choking on debt ) . Once they do the clocks ticks toward a financial system seizure and need for more intervention . Usually policy favors wealthy asset holders so if they can keep moving goal posts to keep super East policy they can kick the can more (but now it seems) global inflationary pressures will sort of squeeze the majority more and more as this policy looks for any legitimate data point to keep the political will to sustain it 

These systems (historically) reach a point of debt saturation Where they stagnate and the political will to write off bad debts has been nil for decades . The rebalancing and clearing off those debts would completely destroy the system at this stage with an assist from a financial system booby trapped by derivatives . So here we are ... Goldilocks perception trotted out... the Fed May act like they will normalize ... assets will fall and then the fed will be back in with more emergency policy.  Just hoping this global system can continue to be glued together a few more years . There will be a transition at some point in most of our lives and the US will likely not have such a advantageous position that has been defended (when necessary ) .
 

It’s not a coincidence that we have had such a gargantuan military presence for decades , and that we have been in a advantageous position as the owner of worlds reserve currency for decades . As oil has been the lynch pin of that defense And the global economy ...as we are all marketed to be excited to move away from fossil fuels we are also losing the Main pillar that sustained the US standard of living , reserve currency status and ability to print large amounts of cash with minimal consequences.
 

The future that reflects a pivot away from fossil fuels also will represent a Lower standard of living domestically (at least in a relative basis comparison to China ) This will likely be felt more by the children of today than older adults . Maybe I’ll be surprised and we can all prosper .The old global set up has almost  sort of ran it’s course  and as long as the Fed can find a way to keep kicking the can ...sustaining bubble asset values this system probably won’t reach a point of pain that necessitates change , but as the global economy sort of shifts to something more equal ...a “reset “ of many Systemic global financial and economic paradigms will add enough pressure to transform to something more equitable and the roadmap is beige designed for that shift (and has been for years ) 

I apologize for the long replies and also as often acting like what are in truth (possibilities) are described more as inevitable . I don’t know the future but I know things are very unstable (systemically) below the surface .

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice*

XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you.

Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB?

And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey,  I was going to put this post in foliage thread but I think it is more off topic banter.  As a semi pro retired photographer one of my pet peeves is that so many people take pictures these days and then post produce them so you don't know what is real and what is not.  Back in the day  we could not do this pre digital.  I will give you an example.  We have a well known photographer in our area.  People are always commenting in Newfound Area Facebook Group how fantastic his pictures look. So vibrant and colorful, a real master! Yesterday he rented a plane and took this picture of Newfound Lake.   So today I took my high end drone which has a fantastic camera and went to the highest hill to take the same picture.  Both images are below.  Mine is out of the camera, no edits. I understand everyone's eye is different so some post editing is fine, for instance my dehaze tool because that takes away something that on a clear day would not be there. By the way the photographers image was yesterday and mine today so if anything the colors should be better as we still have not peaked.

There use to be a commercial some of the old timers might remember.  Which one is real and which one is Memorex"?

NF Lake Redmond.jpg

Out of the camera.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Miners made one heck of a move in the April - July period of 2020 .

I just don’t trust that sector. They have runs but always get knocked back . 
 

 I know gold is a solid store of value and it loves falling real interest rates . It does look like GDXJ has a solid entry point (one year chart shows it’s down considerably)

We have GDXJ in my wife's retirement account and has had a great return even with the ups and downs. I've made good money in gold stocks but they are volatile and it's probably best to take profits along the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey,  I was going to put this post in foliage thread but I think it is more off topic banter.  As a semi pro retired photographer one of my pet peeves is that so many people take pictures these days and then post produce them so you don't know what is real and what is not.  Back in the day  we could not do this pre digital.  I will give you an example.  We have a well known photographer in our area.  People are always commenting in Newfound Area Facebook Group how fantastic his pictures look. So vibrant and colorful, a real master! Yesterday he rented a plane and took this picture of Newfound Lake.   So today I took my high end drone which has a fantastic camera and went to the highest hill to take the same picture.  Both images are below.  Mine is out of the camera, no edits. I understand everyone's eye is different so some post editing is fine, for instance my dehaze tool because that takes away something that on a clear day would not be there. By the way the photographers image was yesterday and mine today so if anything the colors should be better as we still have not peaked.

There use to be a commercial some of the old timers might remember.  Which one is real and which one is Memorex"?

NF Lake Redmond.jpg

Out of the camera.jpg

Gene I get what you are saying, but photography is also an art and can be abstract.  I guess it depends on how someone describes their photo?  Like a photographer who's prints someone is likely to want to print and put on their wall or view for fun might be different than someone taking photos to document an event for a newspaper or something.  Lets be honest, every single photo you've ever seen in National Geographic, in a scenic calendar you have hanging in your kitchen, postcards, magazines, posters, etc all were post processed.  Are National Geographic cover photographers lying to you?  Maybe a bit but they are sick photos.  Same with someone taking photos under the sea of fish life in that Nat Geo mag... it's probably a lot more murky, dark, and boring than the photos look in the article on fish.

In the photos above, I don't even notice the fall color as much because the foliage isn't that vibrant around the lake in either one.  It's more of a warmth alteration.  To me the top one is well refined and has an awesome wow factor but really...it's just "warmer" (red hued) and one is colder (blue hued) IMO.  The midday light is going to lead to a more blue photo (how the light passes through the atmosphere casting a blue tint, just like late day or early day light is warmer/red.  The crazy difference is in the background... can clearly see the wind farm vs. not even visible in the bottom.  The clarity in the background is nuts.

I think if someone was trying to take photos for a scientific experiment/comparison purpose, obviously post-processing would skew it.  But if you are a big fan of Newfound Lake and want to print a cool shot for your house to remind you of a beautiful place, which one of the two would you put on your wall?  Would you care or think about it any further if it's sitting on your living room wall?  Someone buys that beautiful sunset photo over the ocean for their beach house... the photo was played around with or tweaked but it's still beautiful to look at.

To me it's about what the photographer is claiming the photo is.  If they are going for an artistic piece, or a scientific observation would matter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Supernovice said:

can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice*

XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you.

Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB?

And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.

you can see that since the 10 year Yield rose quickly in early November thru end of May ...XLF Gained 50% As the yield curve steepened 
 

It’s been plateauing for last few months as 10 year fell from 1.65 to 1.40

...however the last two days ...the 2 year rose and the 10-30 year fell (flattening) Which is not bullish for that index (and basically why it fell last 2 days )

Whatever yield curve trend establishes itself (No idea)  will probably determine fate of XLF. I would guess XLF made its easy money . 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Better hope it's a mild winter. Man the shit has hit the fan economically wise. Prices are through the roof on everything.  Can't be all pandemic.

https://apnews.com/article/business-prices-inflation-28e1231bdb445d482bb2d2e25dff1983

 

Yesterday I was shopping. I was amazed at the prices for even the most banal items but especially at the price of good cuts of meat. Absurd. 

 

Ground beef: +10.6%
Steaks: +22.1%
Bacon: +19.3%
Steak: +19.2%
Chicken: +17.1%
Fish: +10.7%
Eggs: +12.6%
Peanut Butter: +6.2%
Apples: + 7.8%
Ham: +7%
Baby food: +4.4%

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to be an expensive winter for heating. The EIA just released their winter fuel report. Heating oil, natural gas and propane are at record highs and almost double what they were a year ago.  Electricity is going to go way up as well due to most of our generation in New England being natural gas fired.  

The average heating oil price in New England is now over $3 gallon and expected to go higher 

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...