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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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On 9/24/2021 at 11:26 AM, CoastalWx said:

Should weaken a bit. Probably a better chance tomorrow and tomorrow night, although guidance is sort of all over.

 

On 9/24/2021 at 11:41 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I knew today would weaken.  Stuff off S RI cost has promise.  And yes, guidance has been all over the place so expect nada and anything else is gravy.

You were not 100% sure, just like me.

Scooter basket only 1/2 full.

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Some actual fall weather it seems to close out September.  50s by day and 30s by night from Tuesday through the end of the week.

Untitled.jpg.409be958f5d0f5634c7915b9ea0e570c.jpg

Confidence continues to increase for a period of below normal temps
Weds into next weekend, associated with progged 850mb temps 3 to 5
STD below climo normals as pocket of cold air aloft with trof moves
directly overhead. The combination of northerly flow, 850mb temps
near 0C, and some moisture with cyclonic flow, I did lower daytime
highs Weds thru Friday by 1 to 3 degrees from NBM. Progged 925mb to
850mb thermal profiles suggest highs lower 50s mtn towns to near 60F
warmest valley cities, with l/m 40s mtn summits. Lows during this
time frame are challenging due to potential clouds and northern flow
as sfc high pres is displaced to our north and west, but still
anticipate lows lower 30s to l/m 40s. 
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Meh... cool pocket island in a sea of above normal geopotential heights ...

But I tell you, ...I do still think October see either a synoptic snow event, or an air mass supportive of that... after the 15th, followed by return to +% to +15 daily anomalies returning - bit of a range there but I suspect, despite all institutionally accepted seasonal teleconnector methods, the HC is going to f'k  all of them up.  

And no.. it is not AMO doing that -

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