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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Almost like a late blooming commahead up here.

12Z-20210909_GFSNE_prec_prec-3-30-50-150.gif

Some models do show that, now that I am seeing it more closely. A little unsure how it shakes out though when it's got convection thrown in.  Good s/w so maybe deformation rains?

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

outside of the models and futurecast radar I can't think of a reason why...

Because in the summertime, it usually is a nowcast lol.  I didn't think Ida was that much of a nowcast, I think we had a good idea about what would happen.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Here too, absolute agriculture disaster in CT.  Small farms taking it on the chin. Worst year for my gardens I can recall. 

One of my better ones up here this year but all that is left are some tomatoes and peppers, Everything else has gone by.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Because in the summertime, it usually is a nowcast lol.  I didn't think Ida was that much of a nowcast, I think we had a good idea about what would happen.

Agree but the failure of futurecast for the most part leads to nowcasting....and to make matters worse every Boston TV met relies on it far too much...This morning every future cast was different.  In the forum(s) there is more reasons provided for forecasts. And afterwards there are reasons provided for  why a forecast did or did not work out. 

 There should be a forecasting challenge to raise money for charity.....Boston TV mets vs the forum mets....the challenge lasts from Dec1-April 1....

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One of my better ones up here this year but all that is left are some tomatoes and peppers, Everything else has gone by.

30 plus inches of rain in 3 months, multiple days without sun in this shitty summer.  Yes its still summer here until at least the 3rd week in Sept.  Look forward to the next 2 days of drying and chamber music.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

30 plus inches of rain in 3 months, multiple days without sun in this shitty summer.  Yes its still summer here until at least the 3rd week in Sept.  Look forward to the next 2 days of drying and chamber music.

Yes, COC on the way, Going to the lake saturday to fish, Its been a very busy year work wise, Have not had much time off.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Radar all bark and no bite unless it's convective. This is more canal east for big rains I think.

you aren't kidding. radar looks juicy, in actuality it is barely sprinkling out.

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

30 plus inches of rain in 3 months, multiple days without sun in this shitty summer.  Yes its still summer here until at least the 3rd week in Sept.  Look forward to the next 2 days of drying and chamber music.

I had the same, but gardens have done well. Grass best I can ever recall. 

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46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Here too, absolute agriculture disaster in CT.  Small farms taking it on the chin. Worst year for my gardens I can recall. 

Apparently the summer weather was a bonus for Mass apple growers, bad from other crops... from an article in the Glob the other day:

"Happily, June’s heat and sun followed by July’s plentiful rain has yielded a healthy crop. “Apples are going to be big and juicy this year,” says Nicewicz. “The water helped their size.” At the same time, the rain was problematic for peaches, he says. “They lost some of their flavor with so much water and less sunlight.

Bob Connors, fifth-generation owner of Connors Farm in Danvers, agrees: “The apple crop looks beautiful this year. Wish I could say the same about the cucumbers and tomatoes.” He explains that the early-summer heat wasn’t detrimental because the orchard got abundant water in July. “The trees never stressed,” he says. Water is critical, from rain or irrigation, when the fruit is sizing during summer months."

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42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree but the failure of futurecast for the most part leads to nowcasting....and to make matters worse every Boston TV met relies on it far too much...This morning every future cast was different.  In the forum(s) there is more reasons provided for forecasts. And afterwards there are reasons provided for  why a forecast did or did not work out. 

 There should be a forecasting challenge to raise money for charity.....Boston TV mets vs the forum mets....the challenge lasts from Dec1-April 1....

"Futurecast" could be from any model. I think most use the RPM or GRAF, but some show the HRRR too. The thing is, I don't think anybody mentions or displays the model type on air. So I can see where it leads to confusion. Also, that is one snapshot. I'll take hi res models like an ensemble. Look at trends, see if the same area is identified for heavy rain etc. The run to run of the HRRR won't always show the same area getting mauled, but I can get an idea from a multitude of runs showing the same similar geographical area getting nailed.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My lawn never dried out much.  Most summers by August my mowing would be in a cloud of dust.   Never browned or got crispy.

I have needed to mow at least once a week all summer. I have never had that happen. Last year I went weeks without mowing. My water bill is like half of previous summers. I haven't watered, outside of typical plants that dry out on the deck. That is unheard of.

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Here too, absolute agriculture disaster in CT.  Small farms taking it on the chin. Worst year for my gardens I can recall. 

I'm friends with several commercial farmers in W MA and they all are taking a hit this summer.  Sucks. 

Terrible weather for hops and hemp harvests too.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm friends with several commercial farmers in W MA and they all are taking a hit this summer.  Sucks. 

Terrible weather for hops and hemp harvests too.

2 crops of hay this summer were far and few unless your property is inclined.

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