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Major Hurricane Ida


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It’s been getting that other look now very recently. 
 

Looking more balanced wrapping around Into a more circular disk. It’s intensifying as we speak. 
 

if this took a step west yesterday right before Cuba between San Juan y Martinez and Sandino… we’d have a classic buzzsaw by now.

 

 

edit: this is why I was focused a lot yesterday right before it was hitting western Cuba. If it jogged west just a bit before hitting land. The little farther westerly track would of had this set in buzzsaw prime mode by now.
 

Low elevation. Quicker exit. More time.
 

it’s been intensifying as we speak. Those light bumps yesterday chugged it a bit. Even if by mere hours
 

 


 

 

202EE724-209E-4230-9527-FAC64736DD17.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

With the high octane fuel of the Loop Current, I'm surprised we aren't seeing a big uptick of eyewall lightning with pressures quickly falling and convection increasing. 

Lightning can indicate RI, it is not necessary though conceptually. Also, just to play devils advocate (looking at you Iota and Eta), the plane isn't actually in the eyewall yet (edit: now it is). The forum is convinced due to the sat presentation that it is bombing out--and, yes, anyone looking at that imagery will come to that conclusion. But, the reason we fly into storms is because sometimes the satellite is wrong in either direction--the storm might NOT be bombing as quickly as it looks, or, a seemingly poorly organized storm may in fact have a solid circular closed eye that's just not well discerned on sat imagery. Point is: let's wait for lé plane. That being said if it doesn't find a substantial uptick that accounts both for the current period of intensification and the lack of wind-response to the pressure drops earlier in the day, I would be quite surprised. I was a little surprised that they didn't upgrade to 115 at 10PM frankly but I think the idea was to wait for recon which does seem prudent given earlier sat presentations didn't end up matching the winds that were found. 

 

 

It appears that, yeah, it caught up. 

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5 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

It's actually the same aircraft, 303. Let's hope they fixed the issue--it helps that the base is not a long flight from the storm. 

Kelly Field is about 700+ miles away from Ida, long enough, 2hrs+.

They're at 700mb fl, big pressure drop and wind increases, heading 135deg ~40nm out of eye.

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Just a reminder...

We are in Storm Mode.  A fairly large number of posts have been removed from this thread today.  As this thread will be getting even busier in the next day or so, please try to stay on topic and refrain from empty/bantery type posts that don't add value.  If you keep having your posts removed, you may find yourself on the outside looking in.

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1042343647_ScreenShot2021-08-29at12_46_09AM.png.d9429809f72f5532b65f2b2e2cce30ce.png
Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI.
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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
1042343647_ScreenShot2021-08-29at12_46_09AM.png.d9429809f72f5532b65f2b2e2cce30ce.png

Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI.

Yes.

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There aren't many hurricanes at this time of year, in this position in the Gulf of Mexico that see rapid intensification, on the order of say, Cat 1/2 to 4/5 in a day or less. A lot of the famous recent storms actually weaken somewhat as they approach, will be curious to see which genre this is. Katrina would have been insane if it had been strengthening up until landfall.

I've seen mentions of Katrina and Camille, but Gustav (2008) has been fairly similar too, by timing, magnitude and track.

Gustav: 26.9N / 87.7W, 953 mb, 110 mph sustained winds (8/29 UTC)

Ida: 27.2N / 88W, moving NW 16 mph, 964 mb, 105 mph sustained winds (9/1 by UTC)

Screenshot-2021-08-28-11-49-27-PM

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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