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Major Hurricane Ida


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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

To clarify, I do actually agree that Ida looks the best it has all afternoon. But that does not mean that it's core has not sputtered most of the afternoon and morning -- while still gradually intensifying. Likewise we're approaching the well-advertised go-time/Dmax, so this whole "it's sputtering" argument is about to get blown to smithereens.

 

If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility

Interested to see what happens with that strong area of subsidence that has developed on the west-side of the CDO. Not quite sure what to make of it, and if it actually means anything to the circulation's likely RI tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Interested to see what happens with that strong area of subsidence that has developed on the west-side of the CDO. Not quite sure what to make of it, and if it actually means anything to the circulation's likely RI tonight. 

 

It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center

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Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). I'd expect around 971 millibars from the dropsonde based on the bias correction.  

EDIT: Looks like about 969.5 - 970 millibars on the dropsonde with the wind correction. About a 3 to 3.5 millibar drop in 70 minutes. Nice.

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows

Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge.

Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America.

This storm is a late developer and not really big enough.  Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.

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7 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). 

Roughly a similar intensification rate to the previous six hours as well... 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This storm is a late developer and not really big enough.  Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.

Good to know wrt antecedent size or the cyclone.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This storm is a late developer and not really big enough.  Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.

I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge.

Say what?!

Looking at Visible.. there is a deep SE flow for most of the SE at the surface. Including LA, MS, TX.

Any influx of continental airmass would be coming from the SW of the Storm through Mexico up through the BOC and that's not really happening.

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8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

eye back open pressure down to 970

F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)

Substantially smaller than the first pass. 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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