Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,924
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    R. Venson
    Newest Member
    R. Venson
    Joined

Major Hurricane Ida


Recommended Posts

Something notable about 5 PM advisory, nearly 50 knot sustained 90 miles from the center

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of
the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???

Yeah no kidding. Kind of need that right now. Ida has *kind of* taken her time getting re-organized today, so I imagine we're not quite getting the extra boost.

There's a bit of an easterly shear vector in the mid-upper levels tonight and RI should be fully underway. Hoping that gives her a nudge back to the west before LF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

recon_NOAA2-1009A-IDA_dropsonde6_2021082I understand that they missed the true-center to the south by a little bit.. But this is not exactly the most impressive eye dropsonde -- speaks to the structural/organization troubles Ida has had today wrt intensifying at a greater clip. For some reason the core has really struggled to become better organized/tight today, not sure why really. Not something we are going to be able to diagnose easily without the HH radar readily available. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

recon_NOAA2-1009A-IDA_dropsonde6_2021082I understand that they missed the true-center to the south by a little bit.. But this is not exactly the most impressive eye dropsonde -- speaks to the structural/organization troubles Ida has had today wrt intensifying at a greater clip. For some reason the core has really struggled to become better organized/tight today, not sure why really. Not something we are going to be able to diagnose easily without the HH radar readily available. 

Dry air - you can see it in the WV loops

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

seems pretty steady strengthening to me, even if it gets stronger, slowly next 12 hrs it will be a CAT 4

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

People expect Katrina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

 

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

seems pretty steady strengthening to me, even if it gets stronger, slowly next 12 hrs it will be a CAT 4

Satellite has the best look of its lifetime so far currently too

bcdd0092d2766ebb2aa2758c8d784c13.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My thoughts here. Ridge tomorrow a.m. stands tough in SE and as it nears shore, a little land friction will move this thing a little west. With it becoming a large, very strong system, it will be influenced easier by these. And it's supposed to slow some coming in, I do believe, so that, too, will make it easier to be influenced by said factors.

Either way, a very bad day for LA coming up tomorrow

hurricane ida track forecast.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

The storm is in a pristine environment for intensification, and its core has sputtered most of the morning and afternoon on satellite -- struggling to become inertially stable, which would allow more energy to be expended on intensification instead of structural matters.... Little doubt it will eventually undergo RI, but its current state at this moment in time does not seem like it would readily allow for it.

EDIT: There's been posts all morning and afternoon doing a PxP of "wow the IR presentation looks the best yet!!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Hah, I wondered where you were at. 

Yeah, it's been slowly symmetrizing all day after being a bit tilted and asymmetric this morning. Should be able to take advantage of its improved structure tonight.

 Been working a lot. Also closing on a new house.

 Yes, even under ideal conditions shins it takes a while for is for the centers to align.  Most of the hurricane models didn't have this deepening rapidly until this evening, through tomorrow morning. It really should have no issues obtaining 140.... Quickly.

Really don't like the trends of the  Hurricane models going east at this late stage.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The storm is in a pristine environment for intensification, and its core has sputtered most of the morning and afternoon on satellite -- struggling to become inertially stable, which would allow more energy to be expended on intensification instead of structural matters.... Little doubt it will eventually undergo RI, but its current state at this moment in time does not seem like it would readily allow for it.

EDIT: There's been posts all morning and afternoon doing a PxP of "wow the IR presentation looks the best yet!!"

Well okay, think of it this way, when there’s continuous play by play with “this is the best it’s looked!!!1!1!!1!!” chances are the storm isn’t struggling at all, but rather continuing to steadily intensify. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 Been working a lot. Also closing on a new house.

 Yes, even under ideal conditions shins it takes a while for is for the centers to align.  Most of the hurricane models didn't have this deepening rapidly until this evening, through tomorrow morning. It really should have no issues obtaining 140.... Quickly.

Really don't like the trends of the  Hurricane models going east at this late stage.

 

It seems no matter how pristine conditions are that once you are out of the eastern Caribbean or open Atlantic east of the Islands these systems typically won't deepen a ton during the diurnal period...it usually occurs at night 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To clarify, I do actually agree that Ida looks the best it has all afternoon. But that does not mean that it's core has not sputtered most of the afternoon and morning -- while still gradually intensifying. Likewise we're approaching the well-advertised go-time/Dmax, so this whole "it's sputtering" argument is about to get blown to smithereens.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...