September 2021

[Rmine1]

36 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

My dogwoods have taken a beating.

[Jeff Grann]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 Good afternoon JG. Your post reaction is understandable, however there are nuances to the term. Palm trees may be a physical manifestation of tropical as are dews. We are experiencing sustained heightened dews in a calendar time and geographic locations that gives pause. BW, as many other fine posters in our sub forums neither hypes or sensationalizes. Data and demonstration of such is their deep throat. As always ….

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Jeff Grann said:

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

There's no agenda, it's called reality. But too many people prefer to live in a fantasy world where science doesn't exist.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 Good afternoon JG. Your post reaction is understandable, however there are nuances to the term. Palm trees may be a physical manifestation of tropical as are dews. We are experiencing sustained heightened dews in a calendar time and geographic locations that gives pause. BW, as many other fine posters in our sub forums neither hypes or sensationalizes. Data and demonstration of such is their deep throat. As always ….

Thanks.  It's all about data.  No one is wishing our climate into being warmer and more humid. 

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

[JustinRP37]

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases. 

[bluewave]

The minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly in the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ than NYC and Long Island. 
 

 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly in the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ than NYC and Long Island. 
 

 

I’ve lived in the Hudson Valley for 44 years now, even anecdotally it’s quite evident and there are plenty of records to back it up, sadly. 

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

Spotted lanternflies

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Spotted lanternflies

They are the worst. Thankfully none on LI

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

They are the worst. Thankfully none on LI

They have been spotted there but no infestation yet 

https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/

[Rtd208]

I think the SPC may upgrade our area to a slight risk when the new day 1 comes out overnight. We'll see.

[doncat]

80/70 temp split today.

[Jeff Grann]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases. 

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

depends on where you live.  Trust me where I live is the sub tropics and has been for years now

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Thanks.  It's all about data.  No one is wishing our climate into being warmer and more humid. 

certainly not I.....we should spend whatever it takes to take this accursed water vapor and either shift it to California or zoom it up into space and get rid of it.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

I already know we're in a subtropical climate zone so I'm not even going to spend much time on this, here is a copy and paste of the first search result.

New York City, after years of being considered a humid continental climate, now sits within the humid subtropical climate zone. The classification requires that summers average above 72 degrees Fahrenheit — which New York's have had since 1927 — and for winter months to stay above 27 degrees Fahrenheit, on average.Jul 24, 2020

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020
 

 

Please help me create a black hole so we can suck up all this dirty humidity and send it to some other corner of the universe or another universe entirely.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the super nino reset our climate

it was going warm and yucky anyway though

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, December 2015 going +13 was the big reset month. Each El Niño since 2002-2003 has added new changes to our climate. You can look back and see new patterns of extremes following the 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 events. So each global temperature jump creates a new type of baseline for us.

so how do WE reset it back? It seems like we need to do some tinkering with ENSO, on a large scale if we can develop the technology to alter ocean currents we should be able to stop these large ENSO swings from happening.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, binbisso said:

  true but conversely a 594dm  Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

it's that accursed upper level low and all the clouds that are responsible for that.  It's unbearable enough with all this high humidity.

Someone help me nuke the Atlantic Ocean please

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our 2nd warmest mid-September on record.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	74.7	0
2	2021-09-21	72.0	0
3	2017-09-21	71.6	0
-	1998-09-21	71.6	0
4	2018-09-21	71.5	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	77.9	0
2	2021-09-21	75.2	0
3	2017-09-21	74.1	0
-	1957-09-21	74.1	0
4	1998-09-21	73.9	0
5	2018-09-21	73.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	75.9	0
2	2021-09-21	73.4	0
3	1971-09-21	73.3	0
4	2017-09-21	73.0	0
5	2018-09-21	72.7	0

How come 1983 isn't on this list?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills. 

3-5 inches in the Poconos and 1-3 inches around here?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

allergies

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of cold air behind the cold front will still keep the September monthly minimums high. All our stations are currently near the warmest September minimums on record. Notice how stations like HPN and ISP haven’t fallen below 50° this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	59	9
2	1910	57	0
3	2015	56	0
-	1921	56	0
4	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2016	54	0
-	2010	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1982	54	0
-	1960	54	0
-	1891	54	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	57	9
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	62	9
2	2010	59	0
3	2018	57	0
-	2016	57	0
4	2015	56	0
-	2012	56	0
-	2002	56	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	58	9
2	2015	56	0
3	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1994	54	0
-	1968	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	52	9
2	2018	51	0
3	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	54	9
2	2015	52	0
3	2018	51	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	48	9
2	2018	44	0
3	2015	42	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	48	10
2	1934	45	0
3	2018	44	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	55	9
2	2018	52	0
3	2017	50	0
-	2015	50	0
-	2002	50	0
-	1977	50	0

 

 

it wont be cold per se but it will be dry low humidity and overnight lows in the 50s which will feel chilly

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, nycwinter said:

the asphalt at the airport makes the temps hotter then they would be anywhere else.. the offilcal temp should not be taken at the airport but somewhere else in the city..

since they are all taken at airports they should be comparable to each other

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Heavier rain could arrive during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is likely tonight through Friday. A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Parts of central Pennsylvania could see 3”-6” of rain.