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August 2021


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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

If we believe the gfs september starts off rainy and cool followed by dry pleasant weather thru labor day weekend

The cool down looks legit given the coming pattern. Very strong blocking pattern likely.

Gfs has two shots of cool air on the heels of tropical system remnants from the gulf. 

So we will see relief soon.

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One more hot day lies ahead. Afterward, a front will move slowly through the region and it could stall nearby. The result will be cooler weather with potential showers and thundershowers during the weekend.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ida has now developed. Ida will pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. Some of the guidance has it making landfall as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane. Through 7 pm CDT, New Orleans has received 65.74" of rain. That is the 2nd highest figure on record for this time of year. As a result, the already saturated ground could exacerbate the risk of flooding from Ida.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +5.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.640 today.

On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.489 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.4° (1.4° above normal).

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just because it gets a sea breeze first, doesn’t mean there are any problems with the temperatures. Wantagh is currently 87/74 with a very humid sea breeze. Farmingdale a little further from the shore is 90/71.

Is it possible me being 2 miles from the ocean makes a difference....I'm sort of a hybrid of JFK, FRG and ISP

We did have a sea breeze kick in around 2 PM but it got to 92 at noon first.

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs are peaking  later this year than recent summers. Notice the upper 70s ocean temperatures now from the Jersey Shore to the LI South Shore. 
 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1650               77  170/  8/ 10 1019.3          2/ 6
20 S Fire Island 1650               75              1019.7          2/ 6
Great South Bay  1630            80 81  220/  8/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1650            74 72  240/  6/  8 1019.8          2/ 6
15 E Barnegat Li 1656               78                N/A           2/13
Hudson Canyon    1650            78 78  230/  8/ 10 1020.8          2/12

Whats it going to take to get ocean temps consistently in the 80s?  Once we get there we can neutralize the sea breeze.  That happened in our really hot summers when we had multiple days over 100;.

 

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The last 5 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/81), or +9.

Super cooldown starting Sept. 02?  The always too warm GFS is bigtime BN, w/o adjustment.

Month to date is  77.6[+1.2]. *      August would end at  78.2[+2.2], but more likely just where it is.

*New Site.     NWS more interested in appearances than correcting NYC ASOS equipment's setting and site.   Lol.

Only reached 85 here yesterday.

78*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy.        82* by 9am.       85* at 10am.(really bootin' it)       87* at 11am.      Reached 90*(60%RH) at 2:30pm.

btw.  Anyone know why the Sub_X( sub-normal perhaps) Model is engaged in predicting the T's for Jan.-1960???!!!

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Long Island is close to its 9th top 10 warmest average summer temperature since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 5
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0
- 1991 73.3 0
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and hot. The risk of showers and thundershowers will increase during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 92°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 81.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.3°; 15-Year: 83.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.1°

A cooler and occasionally wet weekend lies ahead. 

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island is close to its 9th top 10 warmest average summer temperature since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 5
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0
- 1991 73.3 0

Good morning BW. ‘Statistics’; the data projectiles that every wall of doubt must come up against. As always …..

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