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August 2021


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27 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Storm blew up only to collapse like 2 radar revolutions later.

I’ve been ignoring Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings all summer, although this one fooled me for a second when it started strengthening.

 

KOKX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 6_33 PM.gif

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36 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

NW Nassau (Port Washington) here, very quick storm but extremely intense. Tons of lightning and wind, though not a huge amount of rain. Downed trees everywhere. My husband had to drive on someone's lawn to get home. Our power is out. It was sunny after 5 before it happened and it's sunny again now. But!

That storm just missed me at work in Great Neck Plaza.  Hope your power is back up quickly.

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43 minutes ago, Shades said:

It has to be a park because otherwise there's risk of development like any other location in Manhattan, any thing from a pizzeria to a skyscraper next door, or a subway below, tarnishing decades of records. Maybe they keep the overgrowth as an eco-barrier to better represent the climate prior to urban sprawl, and throw out the idea of a "new norm" *shrugs*

Of course, but what I am saying is why are we using data from a Park to compare to every other official NWS reporting location which are all airports lol.  Let's just use LGA from now on and call it a day.

 

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16 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

We didn't get a warning. We're directly across the Sound from Orchard Beach, so I suppose it was an extremely local intense event. PSEG estimates our power back on at 11:30, ugh.

Is this the same storm that got 6 people sent to the hospital because of lightning strikes in the city?

 

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23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From early this evening:

image.jpeg.c15d4510c3359a94cb94996425daab13.jpeg

nice shooting Tex.  do you have camera settings and EXIF data, just curious.  do you press the shutter over and over again or is there a way to automate shots.

i have a D850 but i haven't put the work in to figure it out, i just keep hitting the shutter every 10 seconds.

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Temperatures surged into the 90s across most of the region today. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 94°
Baltimore: 98°
Boston: 96°
Bridgeport: 93°
Concord: 93°
Harrisburg: 96°
Hartford: 95°
Islip: 90° (tied record set in 2016)
New York City-JFK: 88°
New York City-LGA: 98° (tied record set in 2016)
New York City-NYC: 93°
Newark: 98° (tied record set in 1944)
Philadelphia: 96°
Poughkeepsie: 95°
Providence: 94°
Scranton: 93°
Washington, DC: 96°

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 12):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 20 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 39 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 18 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 9 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 8 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 27 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 19 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 4 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 19 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 13 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 31 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 27 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 15 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 36 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 17 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 19 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Searing heat again baked the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures included:

Dallesport, WA: 108° (old record: 107°, 1977)
Eugene, OR: 103°
Medford, OR: 103°
Pendleton, OR: 102°
Portland: 102° ***Record-tying 5th 100° day this year***
Salem: 102°
Seattle: 93°

As a result of the ongoing bout of extreme heat, Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year, making 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increased possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +6.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.126 today.

On August 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The August 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.435 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.2° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nice shooting Tex.  do you have camera settings and EXIF data, just curious.  do you press the shutter over and over again or is there a way to automate shots.

i have a D850 but i haven't put the work in to figure it out, i just keep hitting the shutter every 10 seconds.

I didn't have my camera with me, as I was coming back from work. I shot it with my iPhone. If I recall correctly, one has to use the "Bulb" setting for shutter speed and ISO of either 100 or 200. Then the shutter stays open until there have been one or more lightning flashes. A tripod is needed and a remote is useful.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I didn't have my camera with me, as I was coming back from work. I shot it with my iPhone. If I recall correctly, one has to use the "Bulb" setting for shutter speed and ISO of either 100 or 200. Then the shutter stays open until there have been one or more lightning flashes. A tripod is needed and a remote is useful.

lol wow no shit?  that's unbelievable.  you get better lighting balance than i do.  i don't know how to shoot lightning during the day with a 10 second shutter without everything getting blown out and the lightning being dim.

probably more a function of the fact i don't know what i am doing than the camera/Lightroom

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9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

lol wow no shit?  that's unbelievable.  you get better lighting balance than i do.  i don't know how to shoot lightning during the day with a 10 second shutter without everything getting blown out and the lightning being dim.

probably more a function of the fact i don't know what i am doing than the camera/Lightroom

I will try to play around with the camera next time there’s a daytime thunderstorm. 

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4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

So Central Park should be dropped to an advisory got it lol

i live near the park

 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's a park the rest of NYC isn't a park and we shouldn't be using a park for temp readings anyway, how many of the official NWS reporting sites are parks?

 

nws feels it is important to keep official readings in the park,,

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42 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nice line over PA moving in.  I see flashes from well in the distance.

again, i am not trying to make some pointed criticism of Mount Holly but these storm threats are more robust than forecast.  this air mass just has too much fuel.

never mind the storms are getting annihilated

i will stick to hamster breeding

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