Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 wow, might be time for an Henri thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The WAR May continue the west trend. This keeps up the mid Atlantic states might be in game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: wow, might be time for an Henri thread Indeed. I might start one tn or tomorrow morning depending on what the rest of the 12z suite and beyond shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Has there ever been a hurricane who heads directly west in our lattitude?..I know Sandy did that but that wasn't pure tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next several model runs should be interesting with the NOAA Gulf Stream mission data and special balloon soundings. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. Figured that was coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 So it stalls over LI before heading towards cape cod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The main challenge is that the GFS is the furthest west global model. The UKMET, CMC, and Euro are more east. But the UKMET still impacts the Cape. The GFS is usually incorrect when it’s the furthest west on storm tracks. So we would need to see the other models shift further west in future runs for it to be believable. But it’s still too early in the game to pin down the exact track. We are heading into the highest tides of the month with the full moon. So even an offshore track will cause the swells at high tide to fill up the tidal pools on the back beach areas. Chris according to this the blocking high is there to force the storm to the NW and into the tristate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: The gfs keeping things interesting It's the patriotic model we need to be Americans and support American models. #AmericaFirst lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Has there ever been a hurricane who heads directly west in our lattitude?..I know Sandy did that but that wasn't pure tropical. it doesn't matter if it's tropical or not, it's that blocking to the north which matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next several model runs should be interesting with the NOAA Gulf Stream mission data and special balloon soundings. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. that Sandy-like blocking northeast of us could be the determining factor here, see the tweet I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It’s time to pay attention I think but minor changes in the high/low orientation will affect greatly how it tracks. Could easily shift back to out to sea if the upper high over E Canada weakens or the trough becomes more of a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Indeed. I might start one tn or tomorrow morning depending on what the rest of the 12z suite and beyond shows. RJ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gefs is intriguing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Better there than here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Better there than here. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I think the WAR will keep the west trend going but equally important will be how strong Henri gets. Seems like a stronger system will get tugged further west in this scenario. That's something I'm keeping an eye on. So far the current strength matches what the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HMON FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z GFS puts the Henri right on top of the Nassau-Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF has it at 948 mb on Saturday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: HWRF has it at 948 mb on Saturday night lol. Weakens it from there into what’s probably a transitioning cyclone by 102 hours with an expanding windfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hooking it to the left right before LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro doesn't have anything 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 On 8/13/2021 at 4:25 PM, bluewave said: Don’t feel so bad. This has been a well known issue for a long time. Since the NWS left Rockefeller Center in the early 90s, the quality of the Central Park weather observations has declined. Good afternoon BW. I did receive a short response from Mr. Kenneth Boutin, ASOS Program Manager, NOAA, NWS, ASOS Program Office, as follows: ”Ahhh, I see now. Let me work this and I’ll see what I can do. KB” I thanked him in reply and now we wait again. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, lee59 said: 12z GFS puts the Henri right on top of the Nassau-Suffolk border. Mike Ventrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Beginning to think that if everything holds in the next 48/72 hours LI and East interests need to think about preparing—fairly sizable TS force wind area at this time with a 75kt cat1/transitioning cyclone pushing ashore at least with the HWRF considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: Better there than here. uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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