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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

Tropical Storm Watch up New Haven to Sagamore Beach. New NHC track appears to take it from about MTP to EWB to PYM.

Discussion noted that watches were issued only for the reason of an unclear transition to Extratropical 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Appetizer for august and September 

I'd bet our chances for something tropical this season are likely tied with this storm, like Isaias around a similar time last season. Not discounting a peak season threat, but it has been a looong time

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Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 
Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 
interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 
models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been 
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 
model's relatively weaker solution.  

 

interesting discussion

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Just now, Torch Tiger said:
Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 
Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 
interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 
models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been 
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 
model's relatively weaker solution.  

 

 

Yup. Bingo

we done told em that for days. 
 

 

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Claudette and now this ?

We’ll see how this one goes but I still think it’s a mystery.  

But in a way the NAM is kind of guilty of it too. 

We may be exposing that the models have trouble figuring out the phase transition for systems of this nature ..these examples tend to evince that or suggested so anyway

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Not your classic TC, long wave trough interaction. It’s really more of a TC and potent shortwave interaction. I dunno what climo is off the top of my head but from what I recall, late spring or especially fall is when we have these come up our way due to more meridional flow that accompanies these seasons. We’re getting into mid July. We don’t have a big Bermuda High..What gives? I’m seeing surface temps in NNE in the 60’s while Areas of extreme northwestern Canada are pushing 90. A lot more baroclincity around the CONUS than one would expect. And that means more UL jet dynamics than one would expect. That’s my best guess as to what intensification the models curiously are seeing. 

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