Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Current temp 80/DP 72/RH 79% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 1966 was blazing away on this date with more 100s around the city and NJ 101 in EWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 80/71 here. Sun is fully out so fixing to take off soon. Forecast high is 90 but wouldn’t be shocked if we end 3-4 degrees warmer. no reason to go outside anyway since I got a nice sunburn across my arms yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Low level clouds burning off now. 78/72 here should be a fast rise once we get into the sun. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Lots of high clouds on that image as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1966 was blazing away on this date with more 100s around the city and NJ 101 in EWR 1966 and 2010 were blazing hot summers followed by historic winters...throw in 1977 and a few others... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Heat without storms is boring. Same with cold without snow. You have to remember, unless you want a sticky insane Florida like climate, you cant have storms every day. Record heat for 2 weeks followed by a big storm outbreak is the best of both worlds. Storms every 2 weeks is fine as long as it's 100 degrees in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1966 and 2010 were blazing hot summers followed by historic winters...throw in 1977 and a few others... Yes my favorite patterns. Moderate summers lead to lackluster winters outside of a few el nino exceptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the era of low dew point and RH heat with our record drought. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/1966-6-27 4:00 PM 100 °F 55 °F 22 % W the good old days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: These record ridges have ushered in an era of over the top heatwaves. Notice how the warmest departures this month have been NW and NE of the Long Island South Shore. Boston is in track for its warmest June on record. Last summer areas from LGA to New England had there warmest summer on record with a similar pattern in 2018. So even though places like JFK miss the top heat with more southerly flow, the real feel with the record dew points makes it feel as hot or hotter than the hottest summer days in the 100s. I still find it amazing that LGA was hotter last summer than in 2010 even though they had nearly twice as many 90 degree highs in 2010. I wonder when we'll have 50-60 90 degree days. I think you and Don said that within 30 years the excessive heat will overcome the southerly flow and we'll all be hitting 100 multiple times even with a southerly wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I still find it amazing that LGA was hotter last summer than in 2010 even though they had nearly twice as many 90 degree highs in 2010. I wonder when we'll have 50-60 90 degree days. I think you and Don said that within 30 years the excessive heat will overcome the southerly flow and we'll all be hitting 100 multiple times even with a southerly wind? The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree. LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able to overcome the 90° day deficit. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 86.9 0 2 2010 86.7 0 3 2016 86.3 0 4 1994 85.6 0 5 2005 85.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 4 2010 10 0 - 1995 10 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88 Missing Count 1 2020 50 0 2 2010 48 0 3 1994 38 0 4 2019 37 0 - 2016 37 0 - 2002 37 0 5 2018 36 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Lots of high clouds on that image as well More breaks now but till plenty of clouds around. 11AM 84 / 73 CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree. LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able to overcome the 90° day deficit. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 86.9 0 2 2010 86.7 0 3 2016 86.3 0 4 1994 85.6 0 5 2005 85.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 4 2010 10 0 - 1995 10 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88 Missing Count 1 2020 50 0 2 2010 48 0 3 1994 38 0 4 2019 37 0 - 2016 37 0 - 2002 37 0 5 2018 36 0 Thats amazing because I look back at last summer as fairly bland. We didn't have a real historic stretch of heat like the 3 days out of 4 over 100 in July 2010. I also remember using the a/c far more in 2010. Do you think we'll get enough climate warming to eventually overcome southerly flow and hit 100 consistently across the area regardless of wind direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 JFK was fairly close to LGA in 95 degree days (10) in 2010 and 100 degree days (3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Still overcast here. TEMP 78 RH 76% DP 70.0 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge commencing. The heat is on and humidity. Florida weather for the next 5 days Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1). Pop showers and rain could out some heavy amounts scattered around the area over the next 5 days. Look for sun showers too. But while sunny temps low to mid 90s and perhaps upper 90s in the warmer spots. Dewpoints in the low 70s or higher should yield lows in the upper 70s and 80s in LGA, NYC, JFK potentialluy. Winds will be mainly S-SW. GFS and ECM now a bit more aligned as the W Atlantic Ridge pushes east with subsequent front in the 7/2 - 7/4 period. Right now both clear the area by late on Saturday (7/3) and allow for a mainly dry warm/nice Jul 4th. Beynond there heights resume to build as ridging builds back into the East coast and we may be soaring again with heat and humidity by the 8th. Overall warm to hot but plenty of precip mixed in between. Hopefully last night's Euro was correct with the idea of drying us out even in time for saturday the 3rd. After the lousy Memorial Day weekend, hopefully we can have a dry July 4th weekend. Obviously it's still early and very questionable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thats amazing because I look back at last summer as fairly bland. We didn't have a real historic stretch of heat like the 3 days out of 4 over 100 in July 2010. I also remember using the a/c far more in 2010. Do you think we'll get enough climate warming to eventually overcome southerly flow and hit 100 consistently across the area regardless of wind direction? July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2020 12 0 2 1999 11 0 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 2010 6 0 - 2002 6 0 - 1991 6 0 - 1966 6 0 5 2019 5 0 - 1994 5 0 - 1977 5 0 - 1952 5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2011 13 0 2 1993 12 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 4 2002 10 0 5 1999 9 0 - 1988 9 0 - 1966 9 0 - 1955 9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2020 12 0 2 1999 11 0 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 2010 6 0 - 2002 6 0 - 1991 6 0 - 1966 6 0 5 2019 5 0 - 1994 5 0 - 1977 5 0 - 1952 5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2011 13 0 2 1993 12 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 4 2002 10 0 5 1999 9 0 - 1988 9 0 - 1966 9 0 - 1955 9 0 One could argue that westerly flow causes our biggest heat outbreaks and that the onshore flow happens because there are weaknesses in the ridge. I've seen when the high is really strong it overcomes sea breezes which is when we get our best heat. Do you actually rank 2020 higher than 2010 though? 2010 was basically our 1995-96 of summers for the most heat across the entire region (we are after all a coastal region) and was also the hottest summer on record by summer average. I'm not sure how representative LGA is of our area because of its cramped congested location, I'd rather use an average of all the airports. And if you judge summers by peak heat, I dont see any 102-103 temps like we had in 2010 and 2011, which is a true indication of how dominant a ridge is. 2010 is like MJ and 2020 is like Lebron. Sure Lebron had a longer career but at his best MJ was a better player. I actually think EWR is more representative of our area than LGA, because the years in the EWR list are more of what I remember as being extremely hot. All the summers prior in the EWR list are what I would call extremely hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Current temp up to 87/DP 72/RH 63% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 The 12z GFS is quite wet starting late this week thru what looks to be most of next weekend. Plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The 12z GFS is quite wet starting late this week thru what looks to be most of next weekend. Plenty of rain. Better hope it's wrong because it looks ugly. The 4th may still be salvaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 56% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 92°/72° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Kinda nasty day today. Had my surgery couple of days ago now just laying in bed. Went outside once and I’m done for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Temp up to 92 here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: One could argue that westerly flow causes our biggest heat outbreaks and that the onshore flow happens because there are weaknesses in the ridge. I've seen when the high is really strong it overcomes sea breezes which is when we get our best heat. Do you actually rank 2020 higher than 2010 though? 2010 was basically our 1995-96 of summers for the most heat across the entire region (we are after all a coastal region) and was also the hottest summer on record by summer average. I'm not sure how representative LGA is of our area because of its cramped congested location, I'd rather use an average of all the airports. And if you judge summers by peak heat, I dont see any 102-103 temps like we had in 2010 and 2011, which is a true indication of how dominant a ridge is. 2010 is like MJ and 2020 is like Lebron. Sure Lebron had a longer career but at his best MJ was a better player. I actually think EWR is more representative of our area than LGA, because the years in the EWR list are more of what I remember as being extremely hot. All the summers prior in the EWR list are what I would call extremely hot. The average of all the airports and COOPs in the NY Coastal Climate division came in at 2nd place behind 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F 202006 - 202008 74.5°F 125 2.8°F 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200206 - 200208 72.9°F 114 1.2°F 201306 - 201308 72.9°F 114 1.2°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 2 hours ago, RippleEffect said: Kinda nasty day today. Had my surgery couple of days ago now just laying in bed. Went outside once and I’m done for the day. Heal fast and thorough, RE. You have plenty of fine posts ahead of you. As always …… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 95 251 PM 101 1966 85 10 86 MINIMUM 74 433 AM 52 1940 67 7 68 AVERAGE 85 76 9 77 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, rclab said: Heal fast and thorough, RE. You have plenty of fine posts ahead of you. As always …… Thank you I had my belly button hernia done and it’s not an easy surgery but it’s done now and I’m happy I did it. Though I wish I did it during spring or fall. But my job didn’t let me do that so here I am. Outside again very nice under the shade with a bit of a breeze. Currently 88 degrees! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 So the summary today,for our subforum is GFS/EC bust, HRRR/RGEM rainfree being correct. No other changes to the outlook through July 5. 12z GFS iso 7" nr Long Branch NJ and EC up to around 3+. in parts of the forum. Let's see what happens... iso max 3.5? or more like max 4.5"+? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 95 251 PM 101 1966 85 10 86 MINIMUM 74 433 AM 52 1940 67 7 68 AVERAGE 85 76 9 77 Easily 97+ the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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