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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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718 
WTNT31 KNHC 300240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112021
300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021

...JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

 

Fail The Simpsons GIF

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Maybe someone can Collaborate…we all know this was never Katrina…..but to my knowledge Katrina was extremely strong long before landfall. Is there a difference between a hurricane with long sustained strength compared to a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall? I’ve always been under the impression that a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall sometimes doesn’t always translate to ground conditions compared to a storm with long sustained strength. 

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32 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Maybe someone can Collaborate…we all know this was never Katrina…..but to my knowledge Katrina was extremely strong long before landfall. Is there a difference between a hurricane with long sustained strength compared to a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall? I’ve always been under the impression that a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall sometimes doesn’t always translate to ground conditions compared to a storm with long sustained strength. 

IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding).

A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening. 

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40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding).

A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening. 

Makes sense. Always have been curious about this. I think it would be an interesting study for sure. You would thing a long sustained cat 3-4 traversing the gulf prior to landfall would produce much more damage especially storm surge compared to a storm strengthening to a cat 3-4 or 5 right at landfall. 

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4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Makes sense. Always have been curious about this. I think it would be an interesting study for sure. You would thing a long sustained cat 3-4 traversing the gulf prior to landfall would produce much more damage especially storm surge compared to a storm strengthening to a cat 3-4 or 5 right at landfall. 

Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain. 

Recall some of the compounding elements of the impact of Katrina was the failure of the levees and the failure of the main pumping stations.  No implying the pumping stations could have kept up with the onslaught of the surge when the levees failed, but the failure of the pumps contributed to the longevity of the impact after the surge receded.  Once the water inundated the wards that were supposed to be protected by the failed levees there was no way to pump it out.  Will be interesting to see how the damage compares between Katrina and Ida in the coming days/weeks.  Hopefully the $Billions spent on improving the levees and other infrastructure will prove the investment was worth it.  

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23 minutes ago, RDM said:

Recall some of the compounding elements of the impact of Katrina was the failure of the levees and the failure of the main pumping stations.  No implying the pumping stations could have kept up with the onslaught of the surge when the levees failed, but the failure of the pumps contributed to the longevity of the impact after the surge receded.  Once the water inundated the wards that were supposed to be protected by the failed levees there was no way to pump it out.  Will be interesting to see how the damage compares between Katrina and Ida in the coming days/weeks.  Hopefully the $Billions spent on improving the levees and other infrastructure will prove the investment was worth it.  

I would say yes. At roughly $16 billion i would think improvements have been made. From the reports some areas outside the levee protection are bad but areas within are okay. The real question is a storm that sustains long term cat 3-4 strength how will that investment stand up? Again maybe I’m putting to much thought into it but i think it’s a legit conversation. 

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The GFS has pretty significantly adjusted southward with the track of the remnant low over the last 2 runs, more in line with most other guidance. Now takes the low track from about Charlottesville to Dover. Brings the more widespread heavier rains through our area. The best chances locally for severe would probably be from lower S MD/ lower eastern shore into eastern VA.

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LWX morning AFD seems pretty Gung ho about Ida

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOTE: Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at
hurricanes.gov for latest information on Ida.

On Tuesday the frontal boundary will remain stalled over the
region. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ida will be moving up the
Tennessee Valley later in the day. While the first half of the
day will likely be dry, as moisture flow increase ahead of the
remnants of Ida, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly
likely. More widespread and potentially heavy rain increases
markedly after midnight Tuesday night in our western zones.

The bulk of the remnants moves through our region on Wednesday
however. Heavy rainfall is expected to overspread the region
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as Ida interacts
with the stalled frontal boundary overhead. The heaviest
rainfall is expected over northern and western portions of the
forecast area at this time, where the current forecast depicts
3-5 inches of rainfall (isolated amounts of 6"+ will be
possible). Further south and east, rainfall amounts are no
slouch either, with a general 2-4 inches expected (isolated
higher amounts possible). For this reason, much of the area has
been placed into a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall by the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Instances of flash flooding
will be possible (if not likely) with this much rainfall.
Additionally, with this much rainfall occurring, we will likely
see flooding issues in the main stem rivers in the coming days
afterwards (looks like Thursday at this time). See the hydrology
section below for more details.

As the remnants of Ida move over the region Wednesday, areas
south of the track of the low will also have a severe threat as
is often the case in tropical remnants. Banded precipitation is
expected and will allow for some amount of destabilization
during the day. This, paired with an impressive low-mid level
shear profile will result in a risk for some isolated tornadoes.
A Marginal Risk for severe weather has been issued by the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) as a result.

Lastly, the remnants of Ida may still be packing some gusty
sustained winds on Wednesday. The latest NHC forecast has 40 mph
wind gusts possible. 850-925mb winds in some guidance is
suggestive of 40-50 mph gusts perhaps in the higher terrain.
So, will have to monitor the potential for a Wind Advisory
needing to be issued should that trend continue. Will just have
to see how much steam Ida has when it gets a little closer. For
now, not going quite that high on winds gusts (will stick closer
to 30 mph until things become a bit more certain).
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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes could occur across the Mid-Atlantic States as the
   remnants of Ida move through the region on Wednesday. Isolated
   severe thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains
   Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   The remnants of Hurricane Ida are forecast to be centered near the
   KY/WV/VA border intersection early Wednesday morning. Continued
   northeastward motion of the system is anticipated, taking it off the
   Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. Moist low-level southerly flow
   ahead of this system will likely bring mid 70s dewpoints into the
   Mid-Atlantic region, helping to increase instability. Additionally,
   a more banded storm structure is probable by this stage in its life
   cycle, result in the potential for modest diurnal heating between
   the bands. The resulting increase in instability suggests some
   tornado threat will persist throughout the eastern quadrant of the
   system.
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

MDZ001-003-501-502-VAZ026>031-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301700-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0014.210901T0600Z-210902T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garrett-Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern
Allegany-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern
Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern
Pendleton-
Including the cities of Shepherdstown, Mount Storm, Charles Town,
Cumberland, Winchester, Ruddle, Martinsburg, Woodstock, Bayard,
Keyser, Luray, Berryville, Harrisonburg, New Market, Shenandoah,
Moorefield, Mount Jackson, Front Royal, Antioch, Russelldale,
Grantsville, Riverton, Hagerstown, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg,
Franklin, Fort Ashby, Elk Garden, Oak Flat, New Creek, Paw Paw,
Sugar Grove, Romney, Brandywine, Headsville, Strasburg, Stanley,
Oakland, Ridgeville, and Petersburg
454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, Virginia and West
  Virginia, including the following areas: in Maryland, Central and
  Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Garrett and
  Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, Page, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah and Warren. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant,
  Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson,
  Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton.

* From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled front, resulting
  in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall beginning late Tuesday
  night and continuing through Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts
  of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 6
  inches possible.

* This amount of heavy rainfall will not only result in the
  potential for considerable flash flooding of creeks and small
  streams, but also the potential for river flooding on the main
  stem rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ038>040-051>054-501-502-
505>507-301700-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0014.210901T1500Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and
Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Greene-Madison-
Rappahannock-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern
Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue
Ridge-
Including the cities of Elkton, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington,
Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Westminster, Damascus, Falls Church,
Silver Spring, Purcellville, Bethesda, Chantilly, Culpeper,
Ballenger Creek, Centreville, Sterling, College Park, Reisterstown,
Columbia, Warrenton, Herndon, Alexandria, Severna Park, Greenbelt,
Germantown, Leesburg, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville,
Jarrettsville, Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Big Meadows,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Gaithersburg, Severn, Reston,
Montclair, Baltimore, Madison, Eldersburg, Clinton, Glen Burnie,
Ashburn, Ellicott City, Woodbridge, Stanardsville, Washington,
Annandale, Franconia, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Laurel, Turnbull, and
Aberdeen
454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and Virginia,
  including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In
  Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast
  Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern
  Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest
  Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern
  Baltimore. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Northern
  Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier
  and Western Loudoun.

* From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled front, resulting
  in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday
  morning and continuing through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts
  of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 6
  inches possible.

* This amount of heavy rainfall will not only result in the
  potential for considerable flash flooding of creeks, small
  streams, and urban areas, but also the potential for river
  flooding on the main stem rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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51 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

School drop off and pick up will be interesting on Wednesday. 

Let them walk.  It will toughen them up.  Back when I went to school it was both ways uphill and downhill with snow drifts, lava and pterodactyls buzzing our heads

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