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Mothers Day Snowstorm?


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Although the thermal profiles in the lowest several thousand feet are marginal, I am pretty well sold on a changeover to snow at this point.  The bigger questions imo are how long it lasts in any given area and how well it would be able to accumulate. 

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Surface temps are of course a question mark, but one of the other challenges is the deep layer in the low levels that is straddling the 0C mark. 

Here's a NAM forecast sounding for west of Chicago.  If this is even slightly too cold in the lowest several thousand feet, the precip will struggle to change to snow and would remain a rain/snow mix at best.  

1791029598_2021050800_NAM_036_41.93-88.31_severe_ml.thumb.png.78ca3e8f5e389f1801aa976f400e0838.png

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The 00z Euro took a big jump north with the precip shield compared to many of it's previous cycles.  The 1" total line jumped north about 50-75 miles compared to earlier runs.  

Looks like the wet snow potential is very real.  If it happens here it will be well after midnight and before sunrise so I def won't be seeing any of it lol.

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Taking a blend of models, the southern fringe of the changeover would run somewhere around here.  It's tricky to put odds on it.  I think the warming influence of onshore flow will be largely deflected to the north of here at least through 12z Sun or so as the flow is E/ENE.  After that time it does develop more of a northerly component.

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I'll say this... there are probably worse lead-ins for getting snow to stick in May.  Recent highs around here have been in the 50s and the last couple nights were in the 30s, including below freezing last night.  Precip rates look fairly heavy so if it can actually change to snow around here, I think it would stick at least on colder surfaces.  The time of day is pretty optimal as well.

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