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The maximum cold departure was more impressive than the warm departure last Saturday.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    109 PM  98    1992  74     22       77       
  MINIMUM         64    921 AM  44    1957  56      8       52       

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
432 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 29 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         52    259 PM  97    1987  76    -24       86       
  MINIMUM         49    930 AM  40    1936  58     -9       68       
  AVERAGE         51                        67    -16       77     
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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow both my houses got over 2.5" and almost 3"

Got wind gust reports too, Walt?

 

I didn’t check. Few near 49 MPH NJ coast and 40-45 LI.  Looking impressive to me fir large scale bands of heavy rain eastern USA next Two weeks.  Focus of course near stalled boundaries.  Maybe New England and upper NYS miss out after Monday morning but otherwise  lots of pwat and persistent Bermuda high seems to me to be setting up.  Summer

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5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It will eventually get warmer

 

I just miss 60-85. We never get that I feel anymore. It is either super humid and gross or gross and rainy like today was up there. Although this is the most comfortable I have ever been in Florida this time of year. Pool heater has to kick on each morning. 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I just miss 60-85. We never get that I feel anymore. It is either super humid and gross or gross and rainy like today was up there. Although this is the most comfortable I have ever been in Florida this time of year. Pool heater has to kick on each morning. 

My pool temp was at 90 on Thursday. It dropped down to 76 today 

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Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included:

Allentown: 50° (58°, 1950)
Atlantic City: 54°(56°, 1946)
Binghamton: 45° (50°, 1964)
Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1950)
Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017)
Harrisburg: 52° (57°, 1990)
Hartford: 49° (51°, 1917)
Islip: 51° (58°, 2017)
Mount Pocono: 43° (53°, 1990)
New Haven: 53° (58°, 2017)
New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1967)
New York City-LGA: 52° (58°, 1950)
New York City-NYC: 51° (51°, 1884)
Newark: 52°(60°, 1940 and 1950)
Philadelphia: 54° (56°, 1884)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (58°, 1990 and 2017)
Scranton: 50°(56°, 1967)
Trenton: 50° (57°, 1901)
Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017)
White Plains: 49° (58°, 2017)

If the temperatures fail to reach 50° at Hartford and White Plains during the remainder of the day, both locations would record their latest ever high temperature in the 40s. The existing record for both locations was set on May 27, 1961. If the high temperature of 43° is not surpassed at Mount Pocono, it would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season by 8 days.

In addition, Binghamton reported a low temperature of 38°. That tied the daily record set in 1953 and tied in 1964 and 2008. Farmingdale recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 2014. New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 1946.

Tomorrow will be another cloudy, cool, and often rainy day. Additional record low maximum temperatures are possible.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -11.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.374 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.174 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.451 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

 

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included:

Allentown: 50° (58°, 1950)
Atlantic City: 54°(56°, 1946)
Binghamton: 45° (50°, 1964)
Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1950)
Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017)
Harrisburg: 52° (57°, 1990)
Hartford: 49° (51°, 1917)
Islip: 51° (58°, 2017)
Mount Pocono: 43° (53°, 1990)
New Haven: 53° (58°, 2017)
New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1967)
New York City-LGA: 52° (58°, 1950)
New York City-NYC: 51° (51°, 1884)
Newark: 52°(60°, 1940 and 1950)
Philadelphia: 54° (56°, 1884)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (58°, 1990 and 2017)
Scranton: 50°(56°, 1967)
Trenton: 50° (57°, 1901)
Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017)
White Plains: 49° (58°, 2017)

If the temperatures fail to reach 50° at Hartford and White Plains during the remainder of the day, both locations would record their latest ever high temperature in the 40s. The existing record for both locations was set on May 27, 1961. If the high temperature of 43° is not surpassed at Mount Pocono, it would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season by 8 days.

In addition, Binghamton reported a low temperature of 38°. That tied the daily record set in 1953 and tied in 1964 and 2008. Farmingdale recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 2014. New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°, which tied the daily record set in 1946.

Tomorrow will be another cloudy, cool, and often rainy day. Additional record low maximum temperatures are possible.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -11.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.374 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.174 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.451 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

 

lol 43 at MPO? Are they going to get close to freezing tonight, Don?

 

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Feeling a little chilly aren't you today!         Don't want to turn the heat on that you turned off for the season weeks ago?         Well print this out, tuck it in with you,  and sleep comfortably tonight:

Again it is the GFS, a model with No Quality Control or any Self-Respect.

1622311200-HbxsExYCVLI.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and a lot of people love high heat.  a 70 degree day is just as boring as a baseball pitch thrown at 70 mph

give me 100+ and low humidity thats perfect

 

move to arizona and you will get your wish..

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some other days that were as bad as today for this time of year...

dates...........max min ave...

5/25/1967.....46....42....44

5/26/1907.....53....46....49.5

5/27/1961.....47.....41....44

5/28/1902.....52....47....49.5

5/29/1884.....51....43....47

5/29/2021.....51....47....49

6/02/1907.....52....48....50

6/02/1946.....52....48....50

6/04/1945.....52....49....50.5

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Felling a little chilly aren't you today!         Don't want to turn the heat on that you turned off for the season weeks ago?         Well print this out, tuck it in with you,  and sleep comfortably tonight:

Again it is the GFS, a model with No Quality Control or any Self-Respect.

1622311200-HbxsExYCVLI.png

 

 

Yeah I'm gonna say hell no to the multi 100F readings.

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

some other days that were as bad as today for this time of year...

dates...........max min ave...

5/25/1967.....46....42....44

5/26/1907.....53....46....49.5

5/27/1961.....47.....41....44

5/28/1902.....52....47....49.5

5/29/1884.....51....43....47

5/29/2021.....51....47....49

6/02/1907.....52....48....50

6/02/1946.....52....48....50

6/04/1945.....52....49....50.5

Philly had a high of only 49 on June 2, 1907.

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Just now, nycwinter said:

with all the rain the nyc area getting not only this weekend but potentially next week it very doubt full highs near 100 are possible

i'd rather it be 97/75 than 104/50

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