• Member Statistics

    16,741
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    gonglee
    Newest Member
    gonglee
    Joined
ORH_wxman

April 15-16 interior snow threat

Recommended Posts

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Goes into RI

Eventually, but it makes it there via Cape Cod...that matters versus doing it via like EWB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That can't be good.

It's not great for inside of 495...tries to wrap in some warm air at 925. It's a crusher though for west of there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha...

Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ...

Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes.

I wouldn’t say no one dares to call for a major snow storm.... 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

48.1/32  Light rain and sleet

Rain started half an hour ago but is now mixed with ice pellets.  I didn't expect any frozen this quickly.  Going to start an obs thread

Dry layer. Should go to all rain for a bit before flipping to snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but I would imagine that is still a limiting factor in far NE areas....

The key is how far west it eventually makes before looping back SE...so we see it eventually make it to RI after crossing the western Cape and then it loops back to ACK....if the peak western advance is, say, PYM or GHG instead, then that matters a lot for that 495 belt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact difference that it still, despite the short range, has uncertainty headaches. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamic pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Interesting looking dry slot on the Euro. 

As much as I hate to say it... this is a Kevin crusher. 

Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 
 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

Yes, we wouldn't be sweating these wiggles when the column is 8C to 10C colder in mid February. But in mid-April, they matter.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 
 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

Exactly.  In Feb it’s noise.  Now it’s an earthquake.  Simple as that. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good.

I'd be fine with a 4-8 kind of deal for Woody. Pretty good model agreement.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ironically ...I'd be fine with nothing for that matter.  Ha ha,  don't even want snow personally ... not this late.  78 F with maple blossoms beginning to fill the air with scents that trigger homage and visions of dream girl ( or whatever floats one's WOKE-boat ... ), seems difficult to compete with if were up to me.

ah hell.  But to become a Met Jedi Master, over come one's fears must you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 to 1 is still 8 to 10 for those who flip, places like Hunchie and Pete probably 8 to 1 and earlier flip. Early call is Hunchie 12 Pete 12 ORH 10 Kev 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5 to 1 is still 8 to 10 for those who flip, places like Hunchie and Pete probably 8 to 1 and earlier flip. Early call is Hunchie 12 Pete 12 ORH 10 Kev 8

We will have a good idea of how things are progressing by about midnight or 1am. If we are seeing a place like ORH flipped before midight, then it could be pretty prolific there. That's assuming that we don't get a low that drives back into your fanny and dryslots 2/3rds of SNE too....but I'm doubting those solutions at the moment as I watch each run of the RAP/HRRR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR has that awesome CCB look for Dave.

I'm likely going to be drinking scorpion bowls on winter hill. Should be interesting there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.