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Winter 2021-2022


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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have a Bob Copeland post from old Ne.weather. He and Mark were on it

I DO remember that my dear friend Don Kent was NOT as enthusiastic about the blizzard on that Monday morning as I was. I believe Don was saying something like "there is STILL no indication that" we are going to have a blockbuster storm, though he DID change his mind by midday, as a WALL of heavy snow began moving northward from the NYC area. My recollection is that the storm was VERY WELL forecast. And while NO ONE could have sanely predicted the ultimate magnitude of the snowfall, the snowfall estimates were at the EXTREME end of the range that had EVER been predicted for ANY storm.

The first inklings of the impending MAJOR storm development came as early as Thursday of the week prior to the blizzard. The long range progs (in those days the max. was 48 to 72 hours) were suggesting a strong short wave would be digging southeastward through the Great Lakes toward the east coast into a very favorable temperature environment, and we began to hint at a MAJOR snowstorm for early the following week. As each run of the progs over the weekend confirmed our earlier thinking, Mark Rosenthal, who was working my radio stations for me called me at home to say he was going to go for ONE TO 2 FEET OF SNOW! I told him that was outrageous, but I

agreed to come in to the office to look at the progs myself. When I saw the progs, I had to agree there was little reason NOT to make such an "outrageous" forecast, except for the fact that to the best of my knowledge, it had NEVER been done before, certainly not BEFORE a snowstorm had actually commenced.

I came in that Monday morning, about 10 hours before the storm began in the Boston area, and this is what I forecast on the "Eyeopener": a storm of "historic" proportions; I pointed out that the benign cloudy sky of the early morning would give way to HEAVY snow in the afternoon, and suggested that if folks felt COMPELLED to go to work as usual, that they could expect to deal with serious driving problems on the way home; I stuck with the 1 to 2 feet of snow forecast that Mark had issued Sunday, and forecast winds of near hurricane force would cause massive drifts; along the coast, taking note of the new moon" tides which were going to be about 12' under the best of circumstances, I forecast RECORD high tides along the coast, and predicted that this would turn out to be the most serious threat to life and property. John Coleman, who was the forecaster on "Good Morning America" (or whatever the ABC Network morning program was called in those days) called me in the office about 7 am, and asked me what I was forecasting for Boston. I gave him all the

gave him all the above information, and suggested he emphasize the special flooding dangers along the coast.

Not only did he upgrade his forecast almost completely along the lines I suggested, but he credited me personally on nationwide TV (which I found very flattering). Well, we all know the results, folks who did NOT heed the early warnings had a horrendous time getting back home. By the time I was able to leave Ch. 5 about 2 PM, the "wall" of snow had arrived, and because I chose to take a short detour for some food on the way home, I wound up taking almost an hour to drive to my home only a mile away! During the evening commute, a truck skidding accident on the southbound side of Rte. 128 near route 138 in Milton started the progressive backup in traffic which eventually resulted in the most monumental marooning of people in automobiles in the history of Massachusetts. And you probably remember the TV images of the heroic rescues of people wading up to their armpits in freezing slush-filled salt water along the shore fromRevere to Hull. A record high tide indeed. Hurricane force winds indeed. One to 2 feet of snow forecast...on the average, an amazing forecast in my opinion. To be sure, many places had MORE than 2 feet; we had about 34" in Needham.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s actually an old write-up somewhere I have to find about the LFM in that storm. It performed very well but most Mets didn’t really buy it. The GSM was more southeast and the LFM had really screwed the pooch in the Cleveland superbomb 10 days earlier. The 2/5/78 run was also a huge shift from the previous day.

Most of the TV Mets (aside from harvey who was more bullish) were forecasting accumulating snow but not the extreme rates and fast start that occurred. The “wall” of heavy snow that came in around mid-morning Monday was the killer. Most forecasts were for a gradual increase in snow. 

Back in 2004 he did presentation at Ball hall up at UMass Lowell.  He went through the day to day leading ...anecdotally, but had also slide projector to scaffold the discussion... It was pretty fantastic.  

He described in nuanced fashion ... sort of brought you to the psychology of being 'the only one', in an era where and when the technology ( modeling .. ) was really quite primitive to what we take for granted now - heh... you get my meaning.  It was scary and risky - and being that we were mets and met students primarily in attendance, we knew of history of the technology. So his rendition was legit and genuine of motif.   Still, he felt too confident to back down, right up to the day before. 

Then...it happened... morning dawned on the day of that snow wall you described ( he did too - ).  Dreaded scud clouds raced west, due west actually... straight off the ocean under a thickening fore-canopy of slate gray elevated ceilings.  Not a good sign - ...scud are liquid and tend to signify an elevated warm layer. His heart sunk.  Because even though there was that crazy 1050 mb high pressure N of MN, with its mighty arm squarely and massively extending to N of Maine, we all know what an E trajectory off the water means... But, as the wall came in, and the storm was entering bombogenesis phase, the wind backed while accelerating by textbook; the game was afoot!  Boom time... 

He was funny, it wasn't like 'see' at all. It was a sigh of relief - that was the impression I got.   

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Back in 2004 he did presentation at Ball hall up at UMass Lowell.  He went through the day to day leading ...anecdotally, but had also slide projector to scaffold the discussion... It was pretty fantastic.  

He described in nuanced fashion ... sort of brought you to the psychology of being 'the only one', in an era where and when the technology ( modeling .. ) was really quite primitive to what we take for granted now - heh... you get my meaning.  It was scary and risky - and being that we were mets and met students primarily in attendance, we knows of history of the technology. His rendition was legit and genuine of motif.   Still, he felt too confident to back down, right up to the day before. 

Then...it happened... morning dawned on the day of that snow wall you described ( he did too - ).  Dreaded scud clouds racied west, due west actually... straight off the ocean under a thickening fore-canopy of slate gray elevated ceilings.  Not a good sign - ...scud are liquid and tend to signify an elevated warm layer. His heart sunk.  Because even though there was that crazy 1050 me high pressure N of MN, with its mighty arm squarely and massively extending to N of Maine, we all know what an E trajectory off the water means... But, as the wall came in, and the storm was entering bombogenesis phase, the wind backed while accelerating by textbook; the game was afoot!  Boom time... 

He was funny, it wasn't like 'see' at all. It was a sigh of relief - that was the impression I got.   

LOL, that was always my "old man way" of knowing if I was screwed. Although if it is more high based, that signaled a colder and drier layer typically. But that is funny you referenced that. 

Also the wall of snow, typical for that initial fronto band in big storms. They all have it. 2005, 2013, 2015 etc. 

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8 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I was the same age but was in the NYC area during the run up to this event.  My source of information was the Accuweather Mets on WINS.  They spoke of a strong LP system that would be diving out of Alberta and would serve to generate an intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast.  This discussion started on the Friday and Saturday before the event (Monday).  This scenario was what was being generated on the models of that time.  There seemed to be little doubt in their minds.  The Mets I am referring to are Dr. Joel Myers, Dr. Joel Sobel, and Elliott Abrams.  The only other event that I can recall that was forecasted that far in advance with that level of certainty was the Superstorm of 1993.

I remember the 12 noon update of Feb 5th 1978 on WINS..I think it was Elliot Abrams who mentioned the word blizzard for the first time. I wish I was taping the radio. There's a recording of it somewhere on the internet.

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I DO remember that my dear friend Don Kent was NOT as enthusiastic about the blizzard on that Monday morning as I was. I believe Don was saying something like "there is STILL no indication that" we are going to have a blockbuster storm, though he DID change his mind by midday, as a WALL of heavy snow began moving northward from the NYC area. My recollection is that the storm was VERY WELL forecast. And while NO ONE could have sanely predicted the ultimate magnitude of the snowfall, the snowfall estimates were at the EXTREME end of the range that had EVER been predicted for ANY storm.

The first inklings of the impending MAJOR storm development came as early as Thursday of the week prior to the blizzard. The long range progs (in those days the max. was 48 to 72 hours) were suggesting a strong short wave would be digging southeastward through the Great Lakes toward the east coast into a very favorable temperature environment, and we began to hint at a MAJOR snowstorm for early the following week. As each run of the progs over the weekend confirmed our earlier thinking, Mark Rosenthal, who was working my radio stations for me called me at home to say he was going to go for ONE TO 2 FEET OF SNOW! I told him that was outrageous, but I

agreed to come in to the office to look at the progs myself. When I saw the progs, I had to agree there was little reason NOT to make such an "outrageous" forecast, except for the fact that to the best of my knowledge, it had NEVER been done before, certainly not BEFORE a snowstorm had actually commenced.

I came in that Monday morning, about 10 hours before the storm began in the Boston area, and this is what I forecast on the "Eyeopener": a storm of "historic" proportions; I pointed out that the benign cloudy sky of the early morning would give way to HEAVY snow in the afternoon, and suggested that if folks felt COMPELLED to go to work as usual, that they could expect to deal with serious driving problems on the way home; I stuck with the 1 to 2 feet of snow forecast that Mark had issued Sunday, and forecast winds of near hurricane force would cause massive drifts; along the coast, taking note of the new moon" tides which were going to be about 12' under the best of circumstances, I forecast RECORD high tides along the coast, and predicted that this would turn out to be the most serious threat to life and property. John Coleman, who was the forecaster on "Good Morning America" (or whatever the ABC Network morning program was called in those days) called me in the office about 7 am, and asked me what I was forecasting for Boston. I gave him all the

gave him all the above information, and suggested he emphasize the special flooding dangers along the coast.

Not only did he upgrade his forecast almost completely along the lines I suggested, but he credited me personally on nationwide TV (which I found very flattering). Well, we all know the results, folks who did NOT heed the early warnings had a horrendous time getting back home. By the time I was able to leave Ch. 5 about 2 PM, the "wall" of snow had arrived, and because I chose to take a short detour for some food on the way home, I wound up taking almost an hour to drive to my home only a mile away! During the evening commute, a truck skidding accident on the southbound side of Rte. 128 near route 138 in Milton started the progressive backup in traffic which eventually resulted in the most monumental marooning of people in automobiles in the history of Massachusetts. And you probably remember the TV images of the heroic rescues of people wading up to their armpits in freezing slush-filled salt water along the shore fromRevere to Hull. A record high tide indeed. Hurricane force winds indeed. One to 2 feet of snow forecast...on the average, an amazing forecast in my opinion. To be sure, many places had MORE than 2 feet; we had about 34" in Needham.

Thats a cool story.  First big storm of my life growing up in central Delaware.

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16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I DO remember that my dear friend Don Kent was NOT as enthusiastic about the blizzard on that Monday morning as I was. I believe Don was saying something like "there is STILL no indication that" we are going to have a blockbuster storm, though he DID change his mind by midday, as a WALL of heavy snow began moving northward from the NYC area. My recollection is that the storm was VERY WELL forecast. And while NO ONE could have sanely predicted the ultimate magnitude of the snowfall, the snowfall estimates were at the EXTREME end of the range that had EVER been predicted for ANY storm.

The first inklings of the impending MAJOR storm development came as early as Thursday of the week prior to the blizzard. The long range progs (in those days the max. was 48 to 72 hours) were suggesting a strong short wave would be digging southeastward through the Great Lakes toward the east coast into a very favorable temperature environment, and we began to hint at a MAJOR snowstorm for early the following week. As each run of the progs over the weekend confirmed our earlier thinking, Mark Rosenthal, who was working my radio stations for me called me at home to say he was going to go for ONE TO 2 FEET OF SNOW! I told him that was outrageous, but I

agreed to come in to the office to look at the progs myself. When I saw the progs, I had to agree there was little reason NOT to make such an "outrageous" forecast, except for the fact that to the best of my knowledge, it had NEVER been done before, certainly not BEFORE a snowstorm had actually commenced.

I came in that Monday morning, about 10 hours before the storm began in the Boston area, and this is what I forecast on the "Eyeopener": a storm of "historic" proportions; I pointed out that the benign cloudy sky of the early morning would give way to HEAVY snow in the afternoon, and suggested that if folks felt COMPELLED to go to work as usual, that they could expect to deal with serious driving problems on the way home; I stuck with the 1 to 2 feet of snow forecast that Mark had issued Sunday, and forecast winds of near hurricane force would cause massive drifts; along the coast, taking note of the new moon" tides which were going to be about 12' under the best of circumstances, I forecast RECORD high tides along the coast, and predicted that this would turn out to be the most serious threat to life and property. John Coleman, who was the forecaster on "Good Morning America" (or whatever the ABC Network morning program was called in those days) called me in the office about 7 am, and asked me what I was forecasting for Boston. I gave him all the

gave him all the above information, and suggested he emphasize the special flooding dangers along the coast.

Not only did he upgrade his forecast almost completely along the lines I suggested, but he credited me personally on nationwide TV (which I found very flattering). Well, we all know the results, folks who did NOT heed the early warnings had a horrendous time getting back home. By the time I was able to leave Ch. 5 about 2 PM, the "wall" of snow had arrived, and because I chose to take a short detour for some food on the way home, I wound up taking almost an hour to drive to my home only a mile away! During the evening commute, a truck skidding accident on the southbound side of Rte. 128 near route 138 in Milton started the progressive backup in traffic which eventually resulted in the most monumental marooning of people in automobiles in the history of Massachusetts. And you probably remember the TV images of the heroic rescues of people wading up to their armpits in freezing slush-filled salt water along the shore fromRevere to Hull. A record high tide indeed. Hurricane force winds indeed. One to 2 feet of snow forecast...on the average, an amazing forecast in my opinion. To be sure, many places had MORE than 2 feet; we had about 34" in Needham.

Speaking of Don Kent.....before there was gray for me....circa 1972

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know it's the dreadful CFS. Monthly but one can still dream for January. Unlikely in a la Nina but whatever.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a

 

Looks like a gradient/SWFE pattern for December....maybe okay from about my area on up.

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23 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have a Bob Copeland post from old Ne.weather. He and Mark were on it

So was Walt Drag who was all over it. (He then worked for Accu Wx). The set-up was so prominent that even the relatively primitive models of the day we’re all lit up with anticipation. Walt always gave me early alerts of impending anything and at least by the Friday before he was telling me of prospects for something historic. And Copeland is right on with his measurements of 34” in Needham— I measured same next door in Wellesley.

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Yeah... that distinction of "Harvey being the only one" is a matter of [apparently] public history of the era - not my personal view. Just sayn'. 

Personally, ...I was not a part of the SNE zeitgeist of 1978 in all honesty. I was living in adolescence in Kalamazoo Michigan, really too young to have any cultural awareness at all. I was quite young, but old enough to remember the Cleveland Super Bomb incidentally, and recall its magnificence vividly to this day.  As an aside, I always thought it almost ... spiritually significant that I experienced that historic monster back there and whence, had no idea what happened here just 10 days later that year... only to move here five years after that to a region equally enamored with annuls so eerily similar.  I don't know which storm was worse.  

My family moved en masse to this region of the country early in '84.  Some have stayed ...some have gone again onto newer realms after reaching adulthood.  I've stayed and endured - so far.

I've gathered over the years, be it exposure to historical write-ups, or verbal accounting of the mid 1980s here and there ( which mind you, were only 6 to 10 years removed from that event, at that time), that of the major networks at the time ... NBC/ABC/CBS, WHDH affiliate's newly appointed rock star singularly nail it.  Now, ...there seems to be this sideways looking need to question that ever since I made mention of it ... it is what it is?  

To that I can only say:  Keeping in mind, there were not a cornucopia of different options to an unwitting civility back then. Not nearly the exposure was available that we have access to now.  It seems entirely obvious to me, there was/is always going to be dissenting opinions of what the storm was going to be.  I suspect the renditions I have read and/or accounting et all, is just the limited general public access and awareness to those viewpoints.  

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a gradient/SWFE pattern for December....maybe okay from about my area on up.

Ray, I am wondering what your thoughts are about the pattern presented on the CFS from Jan-Mar. In Dec, the pacific looks decent, but with the lack of blocking I agree your area is in a much better spot than us in se ma. With the look the CFS has in January though I’d take the overall pattern it has for the winter and run. That January pattern looks straight up epic. Feb and March, im not a fan of the trough out west. But March looks to have some blocking and both Feb and Mar have a nice look on the precip charts. Maybe the Feb-Mar look would be something like 2005-2006 with a mild pattern overall, but active pattern with chances at a big one? 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... that distinction of "Harvey being the only one" is a matter of [apparently] public history of the era - not my personal view. Just sayn'. 

Personally, ...I was not a part of the SNE zeitgeist of 1978 in all honesty. I was living in adolescence in Kalamazoo Michigan, really too young to have any cultural awareness at all. I was quite young, but old enough to remember the Cleveland Super Bomb incidentally, and recall its magnificence vividly to this day.  As an aside, I always thought almost ... spiritually significant that I experienced that historic monster back there and whence, had no idea what happened here just 10 days later that year... only to move here five years after that to a region equally enamored with annuls so eerily similar.  I don't know which storm was worse.  

My family moved en masse to this region of the country early in '84.  Some have stayed ...some have gone again onto newer realms after reaching adulthood.  I've stayed and endured - so far.

I've gathered over the years, via exposure to this historical write-ups, or verbal accounting of the mid 1980s here and there ( which mind you, were only 6 to 10 years removed from that event, at that time), that of the major networks at the time ... NBC/ABC/CBS, WHDH affiliate's newly appointed rock star singularly nail it.  Now, ...there seems to be this sideways looking need to question that ever since I made mention of it ... it is what it is?  

To that I can only say:  Keeping in mind, there were not a cornucopia of different options to an unwitting civility back then. Not nearly the exposure was available that we have access to now.  It seems entirely obvious to me, there was/is always going to be dissenting opinions of what the storm was going to be.  I suspect the renditions I have read and/or accounting et all, is just the limited general public access and awareness to those viewpoints.  

There were other mets that were sounding the alarms, but Harvey was the TV met who hit it hardest on the major Boston networks. As we know, TV was the main source of wx back then. Radio to a lesser extent, and there might have been some guys on the radio who were hitting it hard too, but I am not aware of the history of the radio forecasts. I remember watching a montage of Boston network forecasts back in the late 1990s or early 2000s for the day prior to the 1978 storm and the other networks did a lot more hedging. That likely contributed to much of the public not taking the storm quite as seriously.

The Cleveland superbomb bust also probably contributed too....so the public was like "eh, they screwed up the forecast 10 days ago, this one prob won't end up that bad"

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41 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ray, I am wondering what your thoughts are about the pattern presented on the CFS from Jan-Mar. In Dec, the pacific looks decent, but with the lack of blocking I agree your area is in a much better spot than us in se ma. With the look the CFS has in January though I’d take the overall pattern it has for the winter and run. That January pattern looks straight up epic. Feb and March, im not a fan of the trough out west. But March looks to have some blocking and both Feb and Mar have a nice look on the precip charts. Maybe the Feb-Mar look would be something like 2005-2006 with a mild pattern overall, but active pattern with chances at a big one? 

January looks great.

February actually looks good for New England, IMO...we would do pretty well, but not the mid atl.

March is marginal as the PAC deteriorates....NNE, inland and elevations favored, but with the NAO blocking signature, we'd be in the game.

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Not impressed with DT's outlook...doesn't seem to have a firm grasp of la nina structure. He apparently doesn't understand exactly what a modoki is, since he insists on calling this one. He also seems to think that they are better for winter than EP events, which is just false. The only thing I agree with him on is the intensity...weak to marginally mod...so many have this too strong.

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not impressed with DT's outlook...doesn't seem to have a firm grasp of la nina structure. He apparently doesn't understand exactly what a modoki is, since he insists on calling this one. He also seems to think that they are better for winter than EP events, which is just false. The only thing I agree with him on is the intensity...weak to marginally mod...so many have this too strong.

 

Screenshot_20211113-080212_Twitter.jpg

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I saw that....its not THAT much weaker....does he realize that this one is well coupled and is actually acting like la nina? Lol The SO MEI is -1.5

This is an extremely well coupled La Niña, last winter never coupled. I don’t know why anyone would even try to argue that it’s not, plus you have a very severely negative PDO and -PMM to go along with it 

 

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is an extremely well coupled La Niña, last winter never coupled. I don’t know why anyone would even try to argue that it’s not, plus you have a very severely negative PDO and -PMM to go along with it 

 

Right. This makes perfect sense to me....its acting like a moderate event.

I know he's just going to hurl school yard insults and block me, but I had to call him out and correct him on Twitter. 

He should stick to operational forecasting,  as seasonal is not his niche.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right. This makes perfect sense to me....its acting like a moderate event.

I know he's just going to hurl school yard insults and block me, but I had to call him out and correct him on Twitter. 

He should stick to operational forecasting,  as seasonal is not his niche.

 Am I missing something here. the MJO is basically in the COD  through early December.  granted it will be between phases 4 and 6 but will it have any influence on the weather pattern during this time frame?  I don't think so. I think other factors will play a bigger role in determining our our sensible  weather  through at least early to mid December.

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5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Am I missing something here. the MJO is basically in the COD  through early December.  granted it will be between phases 4 and 6 but will it have any influence on the weather pattern during this time frame?  I don't think so. I think other factors will play a bigger role in determining our our sensible  weather  through at least early to mid December.

Well, if the MJO is low amplitude, I would assume it would default to the well established standing wave that has been in place over the maritime continent. We need the MJO to beging progressing, and/or strat warming. The later is not happening any time soon. 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, if the MJO is low amplitude, I would assume it would default to the well established standing wave that has been in place over the maritime continent. We need the MJO to beging progressing, and/or strat warming. The later is not happening any time soon. 

 Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7.  Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing.  As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us.  Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel.

Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that 

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12 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7.  Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing.  As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us.  Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel.

Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that 

I didn't say SSW...I said strat warming, which goes hand-in-hand with a weak vortex.

I think Dec will be good, though not particularly cold.

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14 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Using euro MJO guidance it doesn't look to progress out of the COD Until early December when it comes out in either 6 or 7.  Assuming it's correct I would hope it would continue to progress into 8 by latter half of December which would be great timing.  As far as the strat you can have it. if we're relying on an SSW to save Winter count me out half the time they don't even favor us.  Not implying you favor that just stating how I feel.

Edit: just keep the spv weak. I'll roll the dice with that 

The good thing is atm that the TPV is coupled with the SPV hopefully that continues 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't say SSW...I said strat warming, which goes hand-in-hand with a weak vortex.

I think Dec will be good, though not particularly cold.

 Yeah I realized I read too much into it that's why I edited it.  Thanks for your response enjoy reading your Winter forecast each year

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I'd wonder, if not caution even ...

As the whole-scale gradients ( the N hemisphere - ) perennially steepen here over the next month, particularly nearing January, if that might exhibit at mitigating disruption on the perceived coupling. 

It may still couple in smaller quadratures heading deeper into January, but be limited to those regions.  The problem is ... the stronger gradient wind everywhere, as a whole-scale integral, is a destructive interference - it doesn't allow those mechanics to be as instructive on the Rossby -wave geometry.  This is likely why some of the other warm and cool ENSOs seemed too weakly coupled over the last 10 years - a time during in which we've seen a preponderant result of fast hemispheric flow regimes, not likely coincidence.

It could very well be that we are seeing an apparent coupled state, now,  while it is physically accessible - but that accessibility may break down.  Just something to consider -

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