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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That didn't take long. :lol:     I'm with Ray on the forgettable train this winter. 

February was def. colder and snowier than I had thought, but to be fair....I don't think its a huge shock that the signature phase change event of the season leaked over into the start of February...I mentioned that was possible. My miss this season was the SSW, which protracted the colder appeal and blocking into Feb. 

I will do the post analysis in May, as always. Glad I hedged lame in March, despite the big blocking signature evident in my March analog composite. Fooled me last year, but not this year. I will never sign off on a big ending for SNE during a moderate of greater la nina.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

February was def. colder and snowier than I had thought, but to be fair....I don't think its a huge shock that the signature phase change event of the season leaked over into the start of February...I mentioned that was possible. My miss this season was the SSW, which protracted the colder appeal and blocking into Feb. 

I will do the post analysis in May, as always. Glad I hedged lame in March, despite the big blocking signature evident in my March analog composite. Fooled me last year, but not this year.

I'll do 08-09. Both had CJs and CFs. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think next winter will atone for this up there.

That would be good.  I think central Maine north of the 12/17 death band did worse compared to average than anywhere else in the Northeast.  Guess it was our turn.  :wacko2:

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On 4/1/2021 at 9:48 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Nice, it will be a Moderate El Nino. QBO should be favorable for Stratosphere warming (75% chance). We are in an ugly 4-year cycle though that is +NAO/+AO/+EPO/snowless. 

El Nino at the surface should be visible mid-late May.

I hope you are right.....climo favors the opposite ENSO state, especially give a moderate or stronger event preceding, such as this moderate la nina.

I was just referencing the guidance at the outset of the post, which is obviously not worth much at this range.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Since 11-12 this was the third worst winter when including those years. Last year second worst. Kind of shows you how spoiled we have been when a near avg winter is one of the worst. :lol: 

Didn't keep track but seems we were below normal here with everyone around us doing better

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50 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Didn't keep track but seems we were below normal here with everyone around us doing better

41" here.   8" below average doesn't quite cut it .  Miserable Grinch cutter and a wasted January and March gives me the overall feeling of a subpar winter despite some nice periods.   

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On 4/3/2021 at 11:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope you are right.....climo favors the opposite ENSO state, especially give a moderate or stronger event preceding, such as this moderate la nina.

I was just referencing the guidance at the outset of the post, which is obviously not worth much at this range.

I hope he’s wrong, moderate nino favors below avg snow here, above avg snow DC. Nino is only good if it’s weak (like 2015). 

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8 hours ago, George001 said:

 

I hope he’s wrong, moderate nino favors below avg snow here, above avg snow DC. Nino is only good if it’s weak (like 2015). 

That’s not true. Weak is our bread and butter but moderate is just fine.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not true. Weak is our bread and butter but moderate is just fine.

Yeah ‘02-03 was moderate. Same with ‘86-87 and ‘87-88 which were both solid years. 

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah ‘02-03 was moderate. Same with ‘86-87 and ‘87-88 which were both solid years. 

Yeah if we get a moderate the hope is for 02-03, that was a good winter. 86-87 and 87-88 were average to slightly above avg. the issue is with moderate ninos that’s about as good as it gets, you don’t see any moderate nino epic 80+ inch winters with multiple blizzards, sustained cold, and snowpack here. Weak nino and it’s a different story (1977-1978, 2004-2005, 2014-2015). Moderate or stronger ninos tend to have the storm track too far south with DC getting hammered and NYC north getting screwed. There is a huge difference between weak and mod nino, with average snowfall in the Boston area for a weak nino being 55.7 inches (well above avg), and 37.6 inches for a moderate nino (below avg). To put things into perspective these are the enso states ranked from best to worst for snow in the Boston area:

Weak nino, weak Nina, neutral, mod Nina, strong Nina, mod nino, strong nino.

The difference between a weak nino and a moderate nino is on average 18.1 inches of snow, the and is the difference between the best enso state and the second worst. This is more of a personal preference thing but moderate and strong ninos tend to have one big one and that’s it (maybe 2 in the better big nino years). Also they tend to be milder with poor snowpack retention. Big ninas on the other hand you are less likely to get a big one but your more likely to get multiple moderate ones (6-12 inches) with a better chance at getting sustained snowpack and cold stretches. For me though, if I had to choose between a 1.2 degree Celsius nino and a -5 degree Celsius Nina, I’ll take the strongest Nina on record any day. 
 

I have to admit though, before I looked at the data I expected the avg snowfall for strong ninos to be like 20 inches and mod ninos like 25 so while it’s bad it’s not as bad as I expected, so instead of being something that overwhelms all other factors I might just weight it like 20% (if it’s moderate) in my winter forecast.

 

 

 

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It appears the latest long range models support the nina ending in a month or two, transitioning to enso neutral and peaking at 0 degrees Celsius before dipping down again into another Nina (borderline of weak/moderate strength) for winter 2022. It’s still early spring so the models will continue to struggle with the Enso forecast, but we should know more by July or August. I’m rooting for this to be right, ninas of borderline weak/moderate strength tend to be great in eastern Mass, 1995-1996 and 2017-2018 were roughly that strength (96 a bit stronger, 18 a bit weaker). Ninas get an undeserved bad reputation from eastern mass snow weenies imo, yeah it means there will be more SE ridge but that isn’t necessarily bad, as it makes it less likely storms will miss to the south. The risk is more ptype issues, and I would rather deal with ptype issues than missing storms altogether to the south. It’s strange how eastern mass snow weenies panic and call for ratters when they see a big Nina going into the winter (like before this winter), yet we have roughly the same avg snow in strong ninas and enso neutral winters, and you don’t see all this panic about ratters when it’s enso neutral. The only enso states that have a strong signal for below avg snow are moderate nino and strong nino. Ninas are also better for snowpack retention, stretches of sustained cold, and frequent tracking for a bunch of moderate systems at the expense of a lesser shot at a huge one (due to less active southern jet).

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Some research out lately comparing the Australian wildfires in 2019-20 to a volcanic eruption. Not sure if the California fires last fall are comparable in magnitude, but there is a strong signal here for unusual early snow in volcanic winters. Typically Sept-Nov depending on elevation, like in the past two years. The volcanic eruption in the Caribbean this month seems to have sent material into the stratosphere. Worth watching. For my purposes, the 2020-21 La Nina was only a weak event in winter. SSTs finished above 25.5C in winter in Nino 3.4, and 26.5C is average for 1951-2010.

The 25.57C winter 2020-21 reading is far more likely to warm than it is to cool by historical standards. We generally have cold and/or wet winters in the Southwest if the year over year trend in Nino 3.4 is warming. Years like 1974, 2000, 2011 all come to mind as warmer La Ninas following a much stronger prior La Nina winter. Solar activity will still likely be below 55 sunspots per year for 2021-22. Long and the short of it is, if we have another La Nina with an active hurricane season, I'd expect near-above average snow totals for New England in a slightly to very warm winter. But an El Nino at this point in the solar cycle, especially if the PDO stays negative, would be a pretty interesting winter. I find there is some correlation between Nino 4 in the prior winter and the NAO in February. So when Nino 4 is very warm or so in a winter you don't ever get a -NAO the following February (1981-2010 basis). The past winter was cold in Nino 4. So I could see a pretty cold February for the first time in a while for the East in an El Nino with the -NAO in February. You guys missed out on the fun of the severe cold in February 2019 and February 2021.

Also pretty sure there will be two very cold winters nationally in the next five years just based on animating trends in national winter patterns over the past 100 years, but we'll see.Ey8JeaOXMAE0ssz?format=jpg&name=large

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