Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,972
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    robrofox
    Newest Member
    robrofox
    Joined

2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


Recommended Posts

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Late in the year for CV storms, especially ones that look like they could effect the Lesser Antilles.  Oh, has anyone seen the GFS ensembles?

two_atl_5d0.png

Closing out CV season with twins?

Looks like the season shifts to the western Caribbean/SW Atlantic (fitting climo) soon. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

There are reasons why it is cyclical but it definitely does seem to be cyclical even on a more localized level. For example, Long Island and New England got hammered with storms in the 1950s to early 60s. Meanwhile not a hurricane has crossed the shore of Long Island in over 35 years. Look at Florida, after the incredibly active 2005 season it went a record 10 years without a major hurricane hitting it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

That seems to be fairly cyclic as well, a cluster of high end cat 4 or higher US landfalls happened in the 1920s into the 30s (plus a 150 mph cat 4 in 1919) and again in the 1960s, (Donna, Carla, and Camille)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like fishes this far out 

I'm not looking at it closely right now, but yeah, probably. Too many opportunities for the central Atlantic ridge to be weakened as whatever develops drives west. That said, the first wave could get shredded a bit by the outflow of Sam and meander its way into the western Caribbean in the long range until it finds a more favorable environment. Again, hadn't looked that much but this is the time of year for that kind of thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

There are very many things attributed to the atlantic being very active right now since 1995. The atlantic goes through a period of 20-30 years of active and inactive tropical activity. There are a ton of global weather patterns that play a big role including as well but that'd take a long time to get into but Africa's weather patterns are a big reason for active and inactive seasons. And like you said warmer SST's also contribute to it either from climate warming or warm cycles that the oceans may be in. For example we're in a +AMO right now since the mid 1990s which was right around this active period started. But yeah there's a lot of things at play lol because if you remember before 1995 things were very quiet for a few decades lol

Oh and about the thing you said about 1933 possibly being more active with satellites that's definitely true. Another thing to realize is the Atlantic was in a low activity phase around the time we started heavily using satellites in the 1960s and the active period didn't start until the mid-late 1990s.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those tracking seasonal ACE we will be exceeding the typical year end value for the Atlantic overnight. With two likely areas of development and Sam ongoing as a major hurricane for the next couple of days, we are likely to end up well above the average by next week. Knowing the frequency of strong October storms in recent years, the 2021 ACE value could be incredibly high by seasons end. Sam is likely to exceed 30 units, as Larry did earlier this year, making these exceptionally high ACE producing storms 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For those tracking seasonal ACE we will be exceeding the typical year end value for the Atlantic overnight. With two likely areas of development and Sam ongoing as a major hurricane for the next couple of days, we are likely to end up well above the average by next week. Knowing the frequency of strong October storms in recent years, the 2021 ACE value could be incredibly high by seasons end. Sam is likely to exceed 30 units, as Larry did earlier this year, making these exceptionally high ACE producing storms 

I believe we are at 105.2 for the north Atlantic

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/19/2021 at 9:46 AM, jconsor said:

Some insights into the lack of US landfalling hurricanes (along with no major hurricane landfalls) between 2006 and 2015, and the recent pronounced increase in US landfalling hurricanes.
 

 

Thank you for posting this! Very interesting hypothesis there

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Before an +EPO Winter (this Winter's going to be +EPO)

-2019 had 7 storms here on out.- 

2018(-EPO) had 3 storms

2017(-EPO) had 4 storms

2001 (before biggest +EPOWinter) had 7 storms here on out. 

 

Uhh... theres no guarantee of a +EPO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...