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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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There is now within the big AEW now moving offshore Africa a tight ball of convection with probably a LLC of sorts just offshore near 14N, 18W moving seemingly WSW per the visible loops. Let’s see whether or not this area ends up being the focus of this AEW and, if so, whether or not it develops further. The Euro suite doesn’t develop this and instead delays development til late tonight in the same area moving WNW. This may be why there has been such disagreement between the Euro and GFS:

EE930FF7-C9A1-4EB1-993F-1D13C83272E2.thumb.jpeg.ff7fd6e515d71f3f70ec13fbda8dd87f.jpeg
 

 IR:

BBFDFC8E-1BAD-4DAA-B576-84A9596BC665.thumb.jpeg.217559c18832db90427058c3852c681f.jpeg

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 So, now the 12Z Euro fully gives in to the GFS and is no longer recurving it in the E Atlantic! Check out the huge difference vs 0Z:

0Z Euro still recurved it early:

ecmop_00_h500_ta_h_0096.png.6dca4fab2d1fcc2a3e2782f87dcb15a0.png

 

The 12Z Euro says forget the early recurve, I'm going to do what the GFS has been doing from the start! On the 12Z run, it has it at 16N, 32W, vs 20N, 27W, on the 0Z run meaning 425 miles to the SW:

ecmop_12_h500_ta_h_0084.png.90abccfc05a4c147cc912f2b2ce44dcf.png

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 So, now the 12Z Euro fully gives in to the GFS and is no longer recurving it in the E Atlantic! Check out the huge difference vs 0Z:
0Z Euro still recurved it early:
ecmop_00_h500_ta_h_0096.png.6dca4fab2d1fcc2a3e2782f87dcb15a0.png
 
The 12Z Euro says forget the early recurve, I'm going to do what the GFS has been doing from the start! On the 12Z run, it has it at 16N, 32W, vs 20N, 27W, on the 0Z run meaning 425 miles to the SW:
ecmop_12_h500_ta_h_0084.png.90abccfc05a4c147cc912f2b2ce44dcf.png
Yes, it's a pretty significant change into the midrange. It's just one operational run but there has definitely been a trend for something organizing and steered west across the MDR. The modeled pattern does not support a recurve so whatever would hypothetically develop would have to be watched for the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. You can see this clearly with stronger WAR 500 dm heights extending over the SECONUS.08de22dfd0d8d9f80a0d55384dcae363.gif
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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So, now the 12Z Euro fully gives in to the GFS and is no longer recurving it in the E Atlantic! Check out the huge difference vs 0Z:

0Z Euro still recurved it early:

ecmop_00_h500_ta_h_0096.png.6dca4fab2d1fcc2a3e2782f87dcb15a0.png

 

The 12Z Euro says forget the early recurve, I'm going to do what the GFS has been doing from the start! On the 12Z run, it has it at 16N, 32W, vs 20N, 27W, on the 0Z run meaning 425 miles to the SW:

ecmop_12_h500_ta_h_0084.png.90abccfc05a4c147cc912f2b2ce44dcf.png

Closer to my house, still not sure based on that the system coming into the Gulf will have a name, but that looks like quite the onshore flow into SETX, where we haven't had a serious tropical wind storm in 13 years, but have had rain issues with Harvey, Imelda and Beta.  Dropped WxBell when they raised prices, PPV AccuWx is later than other PPV models services, but cheap.

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44 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Tropical Tidbits updates faster than AccuWx PPV, but rainfall graphics aren't free.  Still, the speed of that little system from 72 hours to 96 hours suggests serious rain issues.

TT120.PNG

TT72.PNG

Looks like more street and urban flooding now than yesterday's run, where the big QPF bullseye was inland between HOU and San Antonio.  I wonder when the two cherries get invest tagged, the start of the rain from the Gulf system is only a little over 2 days away, although winds don't seem an issue.

12Z_10Septe_Euro60QPF.PNG

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18 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

18z GFS now has a hurricane impacting the Texan coast given (future) 94L doesn't spend most of its time on land. This is why the 12z Euro is weaker because of its proximity to land. Definitely need to monitor.

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_16.png

 

Totally agree. The environment looks pretty favorable for some significant development IMO *if* it can avoid too much land interaction. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw an even more robust solution if it weren't scraping the TX coast. I'd be watching closely if I were along the TX/LA coastline. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. 

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are 
associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level 
trough.  Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are 
expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday 
while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the 
coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development of this system 
will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over 
water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast 
should monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce 
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan 
Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.  
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the 
western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through 
the middle of next week.  Localized significant rainfall amounts 
will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and 
thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally 
westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa early next week.  Some development of this system will be 
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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On 8/31/2021 at 1:18 PM, ldub23 said:

Just delayed. Sept  looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

 

On 9/1/2021 at 9:27 AM, ldub23 said:

Cool. Except for  a recurver to nowhere sept  is quite dead  on the  models. Unless a strong high builds  into the  NW ATL and stays  locked the season is  pretty  much over.

 

On 9/1/2021 at 9:33 AM, ldub23 said:

Just delayed a  month. Larry  is about  it and  i dont really  care about recurvers, sort  of  like mid atlantic snow  lovers  dont care about  blizzards  in Manitoba.

 

On 9/2/2021 at 7:07 AM, ldub23 said:

JB jumps  on the dead sept  train. I didnt think it would  happen when the consensus was the east  coast was at risk. Just the  opposite  pattern set  up. Either a recurve  or  just too hostile for  anything. My guess is the negative  NAO will reverse  just  in time for  winter  however.

Joe [email protected]·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news!  Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact,  Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug
On 9/3/2021 at 3:39 PM, ldub23 said:

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

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8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

One person did

I wouldnt call this active for  peak season, especially with a  la  nina. The east  coast  low and GOM  low both look very weak. The MDR hurricane looks for  now to follow  Larry.

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34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I wouldnt call this active for  peak season, especially with a  la  nina. The east  coast  low and GOM  low both look very weak. The MDR hurricane looks for  now to follow  Larry.

Does Miami have to take a Cat 5 and NYC a 1938 style storm or the season is a disappointment?  

 

I think Ida has already made this a significant season, myself.

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