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OBS-Nowcast: Damaging wind (50-60kt) threat NYC Friday afternoon March 26, 2021


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The tag features the damaging wind in the dry air, especially mid-late Friday afternoon at the warmest time of the day.  

The severe tag is low risk (Marginal part of the area as per SPC D2 outlook).  There should be bands of heavy showers, isolated embedded thunderstorms,  moving east northeast across the area between 5A-2P, but the inverted or isothermal sounding should limit transfer of gusts during the morning. However, he last possible line along the cold front midday-early Friday afternoon might allow for isolated SVR as the sounding becomes more unstable to the surface? 

Please add Friday guidance and reports for Friday's event to this thread, keeping OBS and NOWcast embedded within this thread as well. 

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Looks like peak gust potential to around 60mph with the cold front on Friday.  High temperatures usually beat guidance in these situations. So the warm spots in NJ may may get close to 80°. This will set up very steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing to 800MB or higher. 70s could easily push out to Long Island as the flow becomes WSW allowing deep mixing there also.
 

14622C90-09DF-420F-9D6B-9E13717F3947.thumb.png.65fc4dea7fa599eed2f9e7f76d5a197a.png

 

 

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Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
342 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, southern
  Connecticut and southeastern New York.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

 

Some max gusts to 60 or so are probable and if any HWWs get hoisted it comes down to where best mixing is

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Thanks for the added info, all!  I see the WA as the more common thread, but am definitely interested in damaging wind 50KT.  Seems as if mixing forecasts have slightly lowered a bit in todays cycles.  Think virtually all the area is good for a 40-45kt gusts with the typically sheltered tree loaded areas less, but hilltop crowns may do very well. Has to get into the 70s to make this work well.

Will convert this to an OBS-NOWcast thread Friday around 630A.  Will not be posting 7A-3P tomorrow. 

Thanks again, Walt

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Western PA gusting to near 60 mph.

PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHEN,PA (AGC) ASOS reports gust of 50 knots (57.5 mph) from SW @ 1326Z -- KAGC 261353Z AUTO 24026G46KT 10SM BKN043 16/07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23050/1326 SLP075 T01560067

JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA,PA (JST) ASOS reports gust of 54 knots (62.1 mph) from SW @ 1426Z -- KJST 261454Z AUTO 26027G38KT 10SM BKN038 OVC048 14/05 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 23054/1426 SLP074 T01440050 53028

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Peak gusts so far in the 56 to 59 mph range.

Monmouth County...
Port Monmouth                56 MPH    0346 PM 03/26   CWOP         
NJWXNET              

...Sussex County...
High Point Monument          59 MPH    0355 PM 03/26   NJWXNET       
Ocean County...
Mantoloking                  57 MPH    0442 PM 03/26   WXFLOW       

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NYC airport, JFK, LGA, EWR all in the range of 45-51kt the past 90 minutes.  

 

Added this from 257PM.  Strongest winds were west of Apps but imo, the NAM HRRR sounding was maybe grabbing 5 kt too much. Multiple other models were more conservative including applying the Richardson # to the 3KNAM which hesitated to get more than 900MB.  Not an A thread for sure, but its'still cranking til maybe 9 or 10P. 

Screen Shot 2021-03-26 at 3.14.41 PM.png

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29 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Republic airport in farmingdale gusted to 51 mph at the latest hourly observation, we probably have peaked at around 50-55 mph here in Lindenhurst as well, judging by how strong the wind seems. I live right under the flight path to one of the runways at Republic and there have been quite a few go arounds today

I believe it. Trees swaying a good bit the last few hours. 

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HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
Bridgeport                   51 MPH    0501 PM 03/26   CWOP
Norwalk                      49 MPH    0513 PM 03/26   CWOP
Bridgeport Airport           47 MPH    0617 PM 03/26   ASOS
Danbury Airport              46 MPH    0322 PM 03/26   ASOS

...New Haven County...
New Haven                    63 MPH    0628 PM 03/26   CWOP
Lighthouse Point             52 MPH    0648 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
Meriden Airport              45 MPH    0554 PM 03/26   ASOS

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
Old Tappan                   51 MPH    0143 AM 03/26   CWOP
Fair Lawn                    49 MPH    0535 PM 03/26   CWOP
Teterboro Airport            49 MPH    0559 PM 03/26   ASOS
Oakland                      45 MPH    0305 PM 03/26   CWOP

...Essex County...
Caldwell                     48 MPH    0520 PM 03/26   ASOS

...Union County...
Newark Airport               59 MPH    0612 PM 03/26   ASOS
Linden Airport               48 MPH    0615 PM 03/26   AWOS

...New York...

...Bronx County...
Fordham                      50 MPH    0400 PM 03/26   NYSM

...Kings County...
Brooklyn College             50 MPH    0320 PM 03/26   NYSM

...Nassau County...
Bayville                     59 MPH    0541 PM 03/26   WXFLOW (45 feet)
Carle Place                  55 MPH    1050 AM 03/26   CWOP
Wantagh                      50 MPH    0600 PM 03/26   NYSM

...New York County...
Midtown Manhattan            49 MPH    0645 PM 03/26   NYSM
Washington Heights           45 MPH    0925 PM 03/26   AWS

...Orange County...
Stewart Airport              54 MPH    0445 PM 03/26   AWOS
Warwick                      50 MPH    0440 PM 03/26   NYSM
Montgomery Airport           47 MPH    0334 PM 03/26   AWOS

...Queens County...
Kew Garden Hills             56 MPH    0440 PM 03/26   NYSM
NYC/La Guardia               53 MPH    0647 PM 03/26   ASOS
NYC/JFK Airport              52 MPH    0640 PM 03/26   ASOS
Jackson Heights              46 MPH    0419 PM 03/26   CWOP

...Richmond County...
2 SE Elizabeth               52 MPH    0418 PM 03/26   NDBC
College of Staten Island     51 MPH    0630 PM 03/26   NYSM

...Suffolk County...
Eatons Neck                  67 MPH    0856 PM 03/26   WXFLOW (71 feet)
Stony Brook                  65 MPH    0457 PM 03/26   CWOP (159 feet)
Farmingdale Airport          53 MPH    0503 PM 03/26   ASOS
Westhampton Airport          52 MPH    0734 PM 03/26   ASOS
Islip Airport                49 MPH    0531 PM 03/26   ASOS
Ridge                        49 MPH    0705 PM 03/26   CWOP
West Gilgo Beach             46 MPH    0701 PM 03/26   CWOP
Great South Bay              45 MPH    0705 PM 03/26   WXFLOW

...Westchester County...
Tappan Zee Light 14          52 MPH    0338 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
Croton                       49 MPH    0528 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
White Plains Airport         46 MPH    0515 PM 03/26   ASOS

...Connecticut...

...Maritime Stations...
1 ESE Norwalk                51 MPH    0827 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
2 SSE New Haven              48 MPH    0518 PM 03/26   NOS-PORTS

...New Jersey...
Jersey City                  48 MPH    0428 PM 03/26   CWOP

...New York...
Robbins Reef, NJ             62 MPH    0242 PM 03/26   NOS-PORTS
Larchmont Harbor             55 MPH    0543 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
City Island                  51 MPH    0600 PM 03/26   CWOP
Fire Island CG               51 MPH    0711 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
Kings Point                  50 MPH    0606 PM 03/26   NOS-NWLON
Point O Woods YC             47 MPH    0834 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
Shinnecock                   47 MPH    0829 PM 03/26   WXFLOW
&&

 

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