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Southern Sanitarium


buckeyefan1
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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

Well atleast we can hope this thing bust Tomm too… would be hilarious if All of New England got like 6-8” the meltdown would be hilarious 

why would people being disappointed be hilarious?  I hope it dumps on someone and they get to make memories they'll cherish for a lifetime.

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

4 in a row?

Any one have the 1999-2020 raw data easily accessible for RDU?  I am curious to compare the mean vs the median.  I am guessing that at least 2 out of 3 years are below the 30 year mean.

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2 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

Well atleast we can hope this thing bust Tomm too… would be hilarious if All of New England got like 6-8” the meltdown would be hilarious 

Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows.  

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17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

4 in a row?

I found the numbers and crunched them.  The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches.  The median is only 2.5 inches.  So we are already above the median.  

60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean.  And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean.  2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 "

 

image.thumb.png.92f5f6836985df59adcda4fccb4e4874.png

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17 hours ago, Avdave said:

Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows.  

Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes.  It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself.

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes.  It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself.

I have def noticed it more so lately.  I dont understand it.  Its just snow as yes I love it but Im not going to wish anyone else that they get shut out whether they are in Florence, SC or Bangor, ME.   

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I found the numbers and crunched them.  The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches.  The median is only 2.5 inches.  So we are already above the median.  

60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean.  And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean.  2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 "

 

image.thumb.png.92f5f6836985df59adcda4fccb4e4874.png

The average is 6 inches period. We are currently at half that. If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. No other way to spin it really. Still plenty of time no doubt but will we get there?

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7 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The average is 6 inches period. We are currently at half that. If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. No other way to spin it really. Still plenty of time no doubt but will we get there?

Who cares?  No amount of b'ing and moaning is going to change the weather, lol.  Just enjoy what comes when it does.

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12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The average is 6 inches period.

The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace.

12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average.

That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary.  Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had 

  • Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995)
  • Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008)
  • Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999)
  • Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average
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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace.

That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary.  Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had 

  • Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995)
  • Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008)
  • Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999)
  • Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average

The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

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20 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback.  Just sayin'.  ;)

It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations.  And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode.  Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively.  If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches.  Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches.  I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability.  While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule.  Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter.  Anything else is gravy.  :D

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18 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback.  Just sayin'.  ;)

It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations.  And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode.  Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively.  If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches.  Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches.  I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability.  While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule.  Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter.  Anything else is gravy.  :D

This settles it. You can’t argue with a guy who’s very name is math I don’t understand.

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On 1/29/2022 at 10:56 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

Just want to point out that the bolded text is literally how humanity keeps finding itself in terrible situations :lol:

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2 hours ago, AirNelson39 said:

Time to put another fork in this weekends system for most of NC. The GFS has now shit the bed which was obvious given that it’s been on an island for 2 days. I had high hopes for the new GFS but it’s shown that it is mortal after all. On to the next one, hopefully.

It’s the same pos it’s always been it got an update now it’s just a fancier pos lol I mean im

sure this is cool and all for the like 16 ppl that live in Wadesboro and Laurinburg but enough is enough 

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1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, not trusting a random person on the internet over experts is why people keep getting into crappy situations. Got ya.

I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective.

There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you.

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27 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective.

There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you.

I will trust the experts until they change their statistical standards. You keep trusting who you want, more power to you.

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