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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost


moneypitmike
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14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like anything over 3” is going to postpone the baseball softball games here this weekend.

if it’s less than 3, maybe we get Sunday games in

No one gets anything if the Nam is right 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_40.png

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's crazy to me how many storms this season have followed this same path to slide south of NNE and go OTS. Nothing will amp and get up here.

Really it's been this way on average it seems since the start of the century. The previous 30 years was the opposite. For instance only 6 below average winter's here this century, however 7 below average winter's in the 90s. Pretty sure 80s and 70s were the same.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Really it's been this way on average it seems since the start of the century. The previous 30 years was the opposite. For instance only 6 below average winter's here this century, however 7 below average winter's in the 90s. Pretty sure 80s and 70s were the same.

It's not that these storms are giving SNE snow that's abnormal, it's just that seemingly none of them can turn the corner and get up here. They try to make the turn and just get shredded/booted east. It's been happening all winter basically without a break.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Placement of deep lift, timing of cold air infiltration, and a difference in temps of like 1-2F between 925-700ish or so will be tough to determine. That will be the difference of 1-2" vs 4-6"+. 

It's very intense too for like 3-4 hours there...so if we're flipping to snow by midnight over interior, then it's going to produce a quick 5-6", but if it kind of waits until 2-3am, then it might just be a couple inches.

Taking advantage of a couple extra hours of that really intense fronto will be key.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know that anyone really uses it. They look at it and post snow maps. I mean I guess Tip uses it for FOUS during backdoors 

It really did well in December but on the reg is subject to huge variations 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t know that anyone really uses it. They look at it and post snow maps. I mean I guess Tip uses it for FOUS during backdoors 

When people post the NAM here 12k is usually the default. I’d say it’s 80/20 12k vs 3k. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

It's not that these storms are giving SNE snow that's abnormal, it's just that seemingly none of them can turn the corner and get up here. They try to make the turn and just get shredded/booted east. It's been happening all winter basically without a break.

The lack of a positive PNA

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

It's not that these storms are giving SNE snow that's abnormal, it's just that seemingly none of them can turn the corner and get up here. They try to make the turn and just get shredded/booted east. It's been happening all winter basically without a break.

Yeah we haven't had hardly any of those this seasons. Your area to dryslot will often share the goods with SNE on some of those coastals...much moreso than NW New England near powderfreak/BTV. Even 12/17/20 struggled to really push north. It did get you to dryslot with some decent snow but the bulk was south...the storm kind of shunted due east once making it to a certain latitude. Some years like 2017-2018 or even 2014-2015 have a whole bunch of storms that have the SSW to NNE swath of snow that gets most everyone in the eastern 2/3rds of New England.

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Well hopefully no one's hopes and dreams were pinned to the 00z NAM, but leaving with 10 to 12"  .. yet, waking up to only 1.5 additional pages to an unpinned thread ... preeety sure no one's were. 

As was stated yesterday when the 12z run attempted that sort of positive return/layout, the NAM has a NW and/or amplitude bias in those ~60+ hour frames.  That 00z Euro and combination with the massive pancaked, barely a flurry in the air when the cold arrives 06Z NAM blend, pretty much closes the book on this system.

Not just that...it's never been synoptically very well footed, frankly. The N/stream was "sort of" offering some better phased looks ...but it was 'fool's gold'.  It really wasn't in total.  It was coming in a soupcon of an aggressive look..(may have tricked some) but it was splitting...  with the mid and N latitudes of the S/W mechanics shearing up ahead, while the S aspect post split was less than completely syncing in ... There may have been some weakly positive/constructive interference in that scope and scale, but the larger synoptic total was negative on balance.  I mean this thing doesn't develop in the ocean...it's damped and minored out as it's leaving...and as such ( and I mentioned this too ..) the system is losing cyclonic integrity and is transforming into an ANA thing by the time the cold air works in. 

ANAs are typically too robust in QPF realization versus modeling .. so assuming this then becomes factor-able ...this whole thing has red herring genetics about it.

Now watch... the 12z NAM will come roaring back - but if it does...  put it this way -  the stuff above is real.  SO, if this system were to transpire more robustly, it would be the bigger anomaly getting that to happen given the above synoptic limitations, not so much the storm itself.  

 

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  • eekuasepinniW changed the title to With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost
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